LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 8885 yuan/ton on September 1st and 9351 yuan/ton on September 29th, an increase of 5.25%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 11466 yuan/ton on September 1st and 12200 yuan/ton on September 29th, an increase of 6.40%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on September 1st was 10787 yuan/ton, and on September 29th it was 10562 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09%.
The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East in early September has driven up crude oil and ethylene prices, with strong cost support, which is the core driving force behind this month’s price increase; In the latter half of the year, oil prices slightly fell, supporting a marginal weakening.
In the first and middle of September, maintenance was tight and the operating rate was lower than in previous years, forming a tight balance to support the bottom; In the second half of the year, the equipment resumed production and the operating rate rebounded, coupled with the expectation of new capacity deployment, and the supply pressure gradually accumulated.
The peak season of “Golden September” did not meet expectations: although the overall downstream operating rate slightly increased compared to the previous period, the follow-up of new orders such as agricultural film and pipe materials was weaker than the same period in previous years. Downstream consumers generally purchase on demand and take as needed, with obvious resistance to high priced raw materials and weak willingness to chase after price increases.
The rebound of PE at the end of the month is a temporary recovery of crude oil costs due to the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the tight spot market at the end of the month, and the resonance of urgent stocking before the National Day holiday. Short term polyethylene mainly fluctuates at high levels.
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