1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium on June 1st was 2687 yuan/ton. On June 28th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 2550 yuan/ton, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 5.12% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium chloride on June 1st was 3833 yuan/ton. On June 28th, the average market price of 64% diammonium chloride was 3737 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 2.50%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium phosphate fluctuated and fell this month. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur have declined, resulting in insufficient cost support. At present, in the off-season of the market, downstream demand is performing poorly, market trading has decreased, and the ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly. As of June 28th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 2500-2600 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong is around 3500-3800 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong is around 2650-3000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The raw material phosphate rock market has shown a weak decline overall in the domestic phosphate rock market this month. Starting from the beginning of the month, due to the weak downstream demand for phosphate ore, the overall shipment of phosphate ore has slowed down, and the mentality of the industry is average. Some mining companies have started to lower the price of phosphate ore shipments, with a decrease of around 20-30 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of shipments, some mining enterprises have added average new orders, so there is some pressure on the supply side, and the support provided by the supply side to the market is gradually loosening. In the later stages, the phosphorus ore market continues to move downward in the supply-demand game, with a 30% grade phosphate ore price reduction of around 40-60/ton.

In terms of the raw sulfur market, the sulfur market in East China was weak this month. The on-site refinery units operated normally, the market supply was sufficient, the enterprises were active in shipping, and the downstream parties were generally motivated to enter the market. A small number of purchases were followed up as needed. The manufacturer’s shipment was not smooth, and the inventory was accumulated. In order to promote the shipment, the refinery lowered the sulfur quotation, and the focus of sulfur transactions continued to move downward.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the recent decline in raw material prices has weakened the cost support for ammonium phosphate. The low cost coupled with weak market demand has resulted in a continued weak market operation. Under the influence of bearish factors, it is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will be weak in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda fell first and then rose this week, and the overall operation is temporarily stable. On June 20th, the average market price was 3137.5 yuan/ton, while on June 27th, the average market price was 3137.5 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged and decreased by 35.53% year-on-year. The market remained flat this week.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda remained weak this week. On June 20th, the average market price in Shandong was 818 yuan/ton, while on June 27th, the average market price in Shandong was 792 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.18% and a decrease of 36.74% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the overall price of caustic soda remained stable this week, and the market trading atmosphere was average. Downstream demand has recently been procured on demand, with average enthusiasm for procurement. However, with the impact of device parking and maintenance in the northwest region, market activity has increased. However, the overall acceptance level of downstream is limited. Overall, the price of caustic soda may remain stable in the short term, depending on the demand in the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of Caprolactam in the domestic market was 12185 yuan/ton on June 1, and the average price of Caprolactam in the domestic market was 12122 yuan/ton on June 26. The price of Caprolactam in the domestic market fell 0.51% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic Caprolactam market price rose first and then fell this month. In early June, the price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated slightly, and cost support was still acceptable. The spot supply of Caprolactam in the market decreased, and enterprises increased prices more often. The willingness of downstream replenishment increased, and the market price of Caprolactam was stable and good. In the middle and late June, the market price of Caprolactam fluctuated and fell. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. The supply of Caprolactam in the market has eased, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased this month. In early June, the price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly, with minor fluctuations being the main trend. In mid to late June, the price of pure benzene continued to decline. On June 26th, the price of pure benzene was 6223.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.7% compared to 6530.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 6200 yuan/ton.

This month, the domestic market for downstream PA6 fluctuated and declined. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. As of June 26th, the average factory price of PA6 in China is 13400 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has been stable recently, and the cost support is general. The downstream is cautious in purchasing raw materials, focusing on rigid demand. The trading of Caprolactam in the market is light, and the transaction focus is lowered. It is expected that the price of Caprolactam will weaken in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been negative, and spot prices have fallen again. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 25th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 11675.00 yuan/ton, a 9.85% decrease from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the methanol market has been weak and declining recently. In the early stage, the price of raw material methanol was weak and consolidated, with poor cost support and significant pressure on formaldehyde inventory, resulting in a weak and declining market. Recently, the methanol market has rebounded, and the probability of formaldehyde following the trend has increased. However, the current support for POM is not strong.

On the supply side:

Domestic POM companies have recently declined, with some maintenance companies resuming work in the early stages. Currently, the industry is facing a close to full capacity deficit. The high load situation continues, and the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually accumulates, leading to a gradual decrease in processing profits.

In terms of demand:

This week, POM terminal enterprises showed weak stocking enthusiasm, with no improvement in operating rates and negative consumption release, which has limited impact on spot prices. Traders lack confidence. It is expected that as the temperature increases, there will still be expectations of a decrease in downstream load. Buyers will buy up instead of falling, with a wait-and-see mentality and flexible real order transactions.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market fell this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants remains high, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. Industry inventory pressure is accumulating, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are operating at a low level and have a relatively low demand for replenishment, resulting in low actual transactions. How much profit is currently available on the market? It is expected that the POM market may continue to be weak in the short term.

The domestic phenol market has rebounded since June 9, and has continued to rise. According to the market analysis system of the business community, the negotiated price of phenol in East China is 6650 yuan/ton, and the average price in the national market is 6787 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 7.8%.

Pre holiday replenishment is intensive and downstream large depositors are bidding. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the port inventory was relatively stable near 22000 tons, but there were large economic operations in the downstream, which accelerated the spot circulation of the phenol market. In addition, the terminal replenishment was concentrated before the Dragon Boat Festival, so there was little pressure for traders to ship, and the market trading atmosphere was benign.

The operating rate of the phenol factory is less than 70%, among which Shanghai Gaoqiao, Jiangsu Ruiheng, and Shanghai Xisa are all in a state of shutdown, and the operating rate of Shenghong Refining and Chemical was also slightly adjusted in mid June. Overall, the industry’s operating rate is at a relatively low annual level.

The factory continues to suffer losses and hopes to raise the listing price. Judging from the profits of the phenol ketone factory, the phenol ketone enterprise has been in a continuous state of loss. Since mid May, the theoretical value of the enterprise has entered a loss. As the market continues to bottom out, the loss has increased. As of the 9th, the market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the enterprise has also adjusted its listing price accordingly. As of now, the enterprise is still on the brink of loss, and it is expected that the post holiday loss will turn into profit.

Business Society believes that after the holiday, it is the end of the month, and there is not much pressure on contract volume shipments. However, it is cautious to follow up with high downstream prices after restocking for a period of time before the holiday. In addition, Jiangsu Ruiheng Phenol Ketone is expected to restart on the 25th, and the industry’s operating rate is expected to further increase. However, the import resources are limited, and the overall impact is not significant. It is expected that the phenol market will continue to rise slightly after the holiday, with discussions in the East China market ranging from 6650 to 6700 yuan/ton.