According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from May 15th, bullish factors were digested by the market, resulting in a weakening of terminal demand and a continuous decline in the market. On May 15th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1033 yuan/ton. On May 23rd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 840 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 18.71%.

Bad news strikes, hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline

In mid May, the favorable factors after the holiday were digested, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the market weakened, leading to a decline in the hydrogen peroxide market. As of May 18th, the prices quoted by hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have decreased, with mainstream prices ranging from 900 to 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 to 100 yuan/ton.

On May 23rd, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline, with the price of Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide in Hebei dropping to 770 yuan/ton, Jincheng Petrochemical quoting 730 yuan/ton for hydrogen peroxide, and the average market price of Mingshui hydrogen peroxide was 800 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 150-200 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that the positive factors have been realized, terminal demand is sluggish, and the market for hydrogen peroxide will still weaken in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 9200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8533.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 7.25%. Weekend prices fell 47.65% year-on-year. On May 21, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 43.32, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 58.97% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 43.82% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have significantly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6870.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6933.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.91%. There is a downward trend in prices over the weekend, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.77%. The price of upstream raw material market rose slightly, with general cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was positively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 10766.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10633.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.24%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late May may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market is showing a downward trend, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Some manufacturers have resumed production, resulting in an increase in isobutyraldehyde flux. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Chart of nitric acid market price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of nitric acid on May 15th this week was 2400 yuan/ton, and on May 19th it was 2233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.94% in price.

On May 15th, mainstream enterprises in East China quoted prices ranging from 2000 to 2200 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China quoted prices ranging from 1800 to 2000 yuan/ton. At present, the concentrated nitric acid market is mainly dominated by order sales, and the market atmosphere is cold. There is an urgent need for positive support, with a focus on market transactions.

During the period of 5.15-5.19, upstream liquid ammonia increased by 0.83%, downstream aniline prices decreased by 4.23%, TDI prices decreased by 7.5%, and potassium nitrate prices decreased by 1.4%. Although the price of raw material liquid ammonia has increased, the downstream prices of potassium nitrate, aniline, and TDI have all decreased. In addition, the downstream demand for nitric acid is weak, but the demand for pesticides, pickling, and other industries is sluggish. The price of nitric acid continues to decline, and nitric acid analysts at Business Society predict that the price of nitric acid may be mainly volatile and weak.

Price trend

In May, the PA66 market in China underwent a narrow adjustment. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the average factory price of PA66 in China on May 16th was 20766.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+2.13% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Last week, the PA66 market underwent a narrow adjustment, and overall, the spot prices of various brands have increased over the past half month. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently below 66%, which has decreased compared to the previous period. The contraction of supply has formed a certain support for the spot market, but the overall market supply is still abundant, and the price increase of PA66 is limited. The pricing operation of enterprises is stable, and inventory pressure is average. On the upstream side, the raw material of adipic acid is stable in terms of hexamethylene diamine, while the adipic acid is fluctuating in operation. A large number of overhauled devices will alleviate the weakness of demand. In the future, it may continue to be bearish due to the weakness of crude oil. The PA66 raw material end has average support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is stable with some weaknesses, and terminal enterprises need to follow up on their purchases. Buyers generally have limited acceptance of high priced goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue to consolidate its market in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the spot price of PA66 remained stable. The raw material market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, providing general support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise has decreased, supply has tightened, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that in the short term, PA66 may be supported by suppliers and tend to be more organized and operated.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of petroleum coke produced by the local refiners declined as a whole this week. On May 14, the average price of Shandong market was 1926.50 yuan/ton, down 1.66% from the price of 1959.00 yuan/ton on May 8.

On May 14, the petroleum coke commodity index was 148.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 63.57% from the cycle’s highest point 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 122.56% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refinery petroleum coke rose and fell with each other. Driven by downstream demand and the reduction of regional supply, the transaction of locally refined petroleum coke was good. Some refineries have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. At present, the port petroleum coke inventory is at a long-term high level, which cannot be changed in the short term, and the port petroleum coke inventory release is relatively slow.

This week’s international crude oil market was volatile, with poor performance in US economic data during the current price adjustment cycle. In addition, with the announcement of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, investors’ concerns about the possibility of interest rate hikes triggering an economic recession and a decrease in energy demand continue to rise, leading to a downward pressure on oil prices. The debt ceiling impasse in the United States has intensified the fear of economic recession. The increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has put pressure on the oil market, and the increase in the U.S. crude oil inventory has depressed the international oil market.

The price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; The price of silicon metal continues to decline, and high inventory and sluggish demand remain important factors that constrain prices; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is declining, with an average price of 17896.67 yuan/ton as of May 14th; Carbon enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, have a high enthusiasm for entering the market, and partially support the local refining petroleum coke market.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business agency believe that the petroleum coke inventory at the port is currently at a long-term high level, while the petroleum coke inventory at the short port is released relatively slowly. Some refining enterprises have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. Some downstream companies just need to purchase, which to some extent supports the local petroleum coke refining market. It is expected that the local petroleum coke refining will be dominated in the near future.