According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of methanol in the domestic market was 2715 yuan / ton on June 16, which was stable compared with the previous trading day, with a year-on-year increase of 6.89%. On June 16, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were weak and volatile. The closing price of main contract ma2009 was 2807 yuan / ton, down 35 yuan / ton or 3.64% compared with the closing price of the previous trading day. Recently, the oil price fell, and the methanol futures market of plastics, PP and other commodities fell. In terms of spot goods, the production cost of methanol has weakened slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic methanol market may be stable in the near future.

On June 15, the quotation range of 1# lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market was about 14750-14850 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14800 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

Recently, the market is in the off-season. The lead price mainly fluctuates with the futures market, and the overall fluctuation closely follows the trend of Shanghai lead. In general, the lead fundamentals have not changed much. The downstream battery enterprises are still in the seasonal off-season, with general start-up, high enterprise inventory and general sales. In the off-season background, the demand for raw materials is low, the support for lead ingots is limited, and the lead price is under pressure. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range shock trend in the short term, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (June 14): 5020 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the trend of acetic acid market price continues to decline. The average market price in East China has decreased by 1.95% compared with the previous working day. Except for the maintenance of some acetic acid devices, other enterprises in the yard are running smoothly, the market supply has increased, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, and the demand is weak. In addition, affected by the upstream decline, the enterprises have strong shipping intention, the mentality of the field operators is weak, and the quotation of the owner has continued to decline.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is weak, so we should pay attention to the market transaction.

In terms of cost, the maintenance period of pure benzene is over, some downstream units are shut down for maintenance in succession, the supply is expected to be loose in the later stage, and the downstream demand for high priced pure benzene is reduced. Today, pure benzene fell slightly, and the price of domestic pure benzene was 9800-10050 yuan / ton.

Aniline enterprises’ shipments were normal, and raw materials weakened slightly, but the cost pressure remained, and the operators waited and saw the downstream to buy gas. Today, the price in Shandong is 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 12500 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on June 10 was 121.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.02% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business agency showed that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride was relatively stable in that week (June 6-10), and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was stable at about 2242.5 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal, the spot inventory is sufficient, the demand is general, the transaction is not easy, and the recent mainstream market has not changed much.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly in the current week (June 6-10), and the average price fell from 320 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 287.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 10.16%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly by about 50 yuan / ton this week; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell sharply, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid; The downstream market fluctuates with each other, and the downstream products are generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which has a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid; Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on June 9 was 6326 yuan / ton, down 3.48% from the price of 6554 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 75.72% compared with the same period last year. Since June, the domestic LNG market price has declined by 3.48% in the cycle, and the market is weak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, with the recovery of logistics, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. The liquid price in some regions is tentatively raised. There is still a downward trend in many places. The market is mixed, and the overall situation is still weak. According to the business news agency, the domestic liquid market has been weak recently, the price of feed gas has been lowered, and the flexibility of liquid plant price adjustment has been increased. It is expected that it will continue to decline in the short term.

Future forecast: in the near future, the raw material cost will be reduced, the downstream demand is general, and the transaction is not easy. It is expected that the recent polyaluminum chloride market will be mainly stable, with a large possibility of slight weakening, and there is little room for change as a whole.