Zinc price rose on March 31

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose on March 31 and the zinc market recovered. On March 31, the price of zinc was 26722 yuan / ton, up 0.47% from 26598 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with 2021, the price of zinc increased by 22.77% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

The demand of zinc ingot spot market decreased, the commencement of downstream galvanizing enterprises decreased, and the demand of zinc market was lower than expected; The crisis between Russia and Ukraine continued, the high level of natural gas was adjusted, the smelting cost of European zinc smelters was adjusted, the output of zinc ingots was expected to decrease, the high level of zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market decreased, and the overall supply of zinc market decreased.

Future forecast

Both supply and demand are weak, and the zinc price fluctuates and adjusts; In the future, the supply decreases and the demand recovers slowly. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Aluminum prices fell slightly on the 30th

According to the data of business agency, on March 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22740 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 1.12%, a year-on-year increase of 31.07%, an increase of 0.80% compared with the average market price of 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (3.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 11.63%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.19% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.65% recently.

Fundamentals

On the whole, the energy price in Europe is at a high level, and the expectation of overseas aluminum ingot production reduction still exists. Recently, affected by public health events in China, the downstream operating rate has been affected, the downstream consumption just needs to recover seasonally, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum plates, strips and foils has rebounded. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased slightly. Recently, Yunnan Aluminum announced that the 700000 ton hydropower aluminum production capacity has been fully completed, and the output will be released in succession.

Future forecast

It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to be suppressed by the 23000 mark. Under the long and short game, the upward space will narrow and the stable and volatile operation will prevail.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 29): 25166.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the price of refrigerant R134a was temporarily stable on March 29, flat compared with the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 23.16%. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, the price of trichloroethylene is stable, the cost is under pressure, the demand of the car market is still weak, the market supply exceeds demand, coupled with the intensification of local public health events and poor logistics, manufacturers are eager to clear goods, the price is reduced, and the transaction atmosphere is light. Up to now, the market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 24000-26000 yuan / ton.

R134a market is expected to have further downside risks in the short term.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (March 28): 7550 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the cryolite market in Henan increased slightly, and the average production price in Henan increased by 1.00% compared with yesterday. Affected by the international situation, the pressure on the cost of using natural gas has increased, the raw materials of cryolite are tense at the same time, the operating rate of enterprises is low, there is no pressure on inventory, and the downstream demand is stable. According to their own shipment, the quotation of individual manufacturers has been increased. In the short term, the price market also needs to pay attention to the operation and downstream demand of enterprises. At present, the market is on the sidelines.

Future forecast: wait and see the cryolite market and pay attention to the market supply.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of March 25, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 478666.66 yuan / ton, up 4.06% compared with Monday’s price, 13.97% compared with February 25, and 137.36% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Lithium hydroxide market rose this week. Recently, the price of spodumene in the upstream is high, the cost pressure still exists, some units are overhauled, the downstream procurement is active, the market demand is rising steadily, the supply and demand pattern is tight, the market is supported, the low price intention of cargo holders is not strong, and the negotiation focus of lithium hydroxide Market is rising.

Upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of business society: the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate in the first quarter is still in a significantly higher range, with a price increase of about 80% in three months. On March 25, the reference price of lithium carbonate was 480000.00, an increase of 6.76% compared with March 1 (449600.00).

Lithium hydroxide analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw materials is high, the cost side is still supported, and the spot supply and demand in the market is in tight balance. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be strong in the short term.