Commodity price: according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride on February 24, 2022 was 2348.75 yuan / ton, down 1.57% from the mainstream quotation of 2386.25 yuan / ton on February 23.

Key points of analysis: at present, with the downstream gradually entering the normal state, the procurement volume is gradually recovering, but the procurement volume has not been increased on a large scale; The manufacturer has sufficient inventory, the recent transaction is weak, and the prices of some enterprises have been reduced slightly. After the spring holiday, the domestic market of raw hydrochloric acid fell slightly, mainly stable and weak.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream procurement has not been started on a large scale, and the market inventory is sufficient. In the case of weak demand and raw material prices, the price of polyaluminium chloride is flat and may last for some time.

Monitoring shows that on February 23, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate slightly. The opening price of the main contract was 14030 yuan / ton, the settlement price was 14030 yuan / ton, the highest price was 14100 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13975 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 140150 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 133200 and the trading volume is 135200. The spot quotation is adjusted with the offer, and the adjustment range is within 100 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13210 yuan / ton, which was little changed compared with the previous trading day.

Key points of analysis: on the supply side, the current natural rubber supply is about to be in the lowest valley of the year, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, but China has not yet cut it; On the demand side, the start-up of tire enterprises gradually picked up after the year. It is reported that the manufacturer’s resumption time is ahead of schedule this year, and its purchase demand for natural rubber continues to recover. On the inventory side, Qingdao’s inventory continues to increase. Statistics show that it has reached 350000 tons so far, of which the increase of dark rubber ring is significant; According to market news, the warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber and the cumulative inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao narrowed in the previous period.

Future forecast: the demand for natural rubber procurement is picking up, but it will take time for large-scale improvement; Although the growth rate of spot inventory has narrowed, the upward momentum of the market will still be suppressed. The market generally expects that under the background of the continuous recovery of downstream demand in the low period of annual supply, the natural shock is expected to be supported in the medium term, but in the short term, the weak trend may last for some time.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (February 22): 19350 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China decreased by 0.90% compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market is weak. There is little change in the start-up of domestic TDI plant devices, and the spot market is tight, but the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high. The market entry is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The offer of the cargo holder is loose in a narrow range, and the quotation of individual traders is reduced in order to maintain the shipment. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19200 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19400-19500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, the TDI market is in a stalemate, and the specific attention shall be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (February 21): 19525 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China decreased by 0.13% compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market was sorted and operated. Last week, there was little change in the start-up of TDI plants in China. The spot market continued to be tight, and the offer of cargo holders was mainly high. The downstream held a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices. The market negotiation was followed up rationally. The market trading atmosphere was weak, and individual traders lowered their quotation in order to maintain the shipment. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19300 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19500-19600 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, the TDI market is in a stalemate, and the specific attention shall be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

The price of ethylene oxide increased during the week. At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8200 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 8400 yuan / ton.

After the ethylene price jumped, the high level remained stable, the loss space of ethylene oxide production process from ethylene was expanded, and the cost of private enterprises was under pressure. Although the price has increased, ethylene oxide production is still subsidized based on the current external ethylene price.

In terms of polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer, although the manufacturer has strong willingness to support the market and the market price has increased, the demand side performance is not satisfactory, the afterforce is obviously insufficient, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. Compared with Monday, downstream hPEG increased by 4.26%; TPEG rose 4.17%; Monoethanolamine; Diethanolamine; Triethanolamine was flat; AEO-9 rose 8.46%.

Forecast: the cost side rose unilaterally, but the downstream transaction volume has not yet increased. The market is becoming increasingly worried, focusing on short-term stability maintenance.