According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the price of 1 # lead was 17075 yuan/ton, fluctuating and rising by 0.29% compared to the lead price of 17025 yuan/ton on September 15th.
This week’s market analysis
In terms of futures, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a fluctuating upward trend this week. As of the close, the contract price was 17150 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton compared to last weekend’s closing price of 17040 yuan/ton, with a rate of increase of 0.65%. As for the spot market, compared to last week, the overall trading activity has remained stable, and there have been no obvious unilateral driving factors.
supply side
This week, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters has slightly decreased compared to last week. Among them, a smelting plant in Henan Province is currently in a state of production reduction and is expected to resume production by the end of September; However, smelters in Yunnan and Hunan regions have maintained stable production without significant changes. A smelter in North China completed maintenance and resumed production this week, while a smelter in East China plans to shut down for maintenance in the fourth quarter. As a result, production was slightly increased in September to ensure the supply of some long-term orders.
Recycled lead is currently facing three major bottlenecks: the continuous increase in environmental supervision, the obstruction of the waste battery recycling system, and the high cost and premium of raw material procurement. These factors collectively constrain the effective release of production capacity, resulting in the overall operating rate of the industry remaining below the historical average level. According to industry monitoring data, the operating rate of recycled lead production enterprises has shown a significant decline in recent times.
demand side
The weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has decreased, mainly due to the impact of tariff policies and factors such as the domestic and international price ratio of lead, which have led to a decrease in export orders for some automotive battery enterprises, thereby prompting these enterprises to reduce the operating rate of their production lines.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the price of lead in the market has shown a strong trend. Considering that the supply of domestic lead ingots may increase, and with the approaching National Day holiday, downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers may choose to increase their inventory reserves before the holiday. Overall, there are both positive and negative factors in the current market, and it is expected that lead prices will maintain a high volatility trend.
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