According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (9.15-9.19), with an average market price of 273480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 269330 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of 1.52%.
This week, tin prices have shown a fluctuating downward trend. As of the close on Friday (September 19th), the price of the main contract for Shanghai tin was fixed at 268770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5180 yuan/ton or 1.89% compared to last weekend’s closing price.
This week, the tin spot basis showed a significant fluctuation trend, while the domestic market continued to maintain a stable upward trend. During the mid week period, although the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts, it also released hawkish signals, leading to a significant cooling of market risk appetite. In this context, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is light, and downstream purchasing behavior is mostly dominated by rigid demand, with limited acceptance of prices.
Due to continuous supply side restrictions, the resumption of production in Myanmar, an important global tin ore supplier, has been slow, and the actual ore output has not yet reached the market’s expected level. As a result, the global refined tin market has long been in a state of supply shortage. On the raw material side, rigid constraints and the maintenance plans of most smelters in major domestic production areas have jointly led to a significant decrease in smelting operating rates. At present, the total operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is still at a historically low level. In addition, the processing fee for tin concentrate remained stable this week.
On the demand side, although we have entered the traditional peak season for tin consumption, the overall situation in the traditional consumption sector is still sluggish, and the recovery of terminal demand is relatively limited. Specifically, the demand for tin plated sheets, tin chemical products, and other related products has remained stable overall, with no obvious signs of growth. In contrast, emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics continue to develop rapidly and have become the main driving force behind the growth of tin demand.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that the tin market will continue its weak supply and demand trend next week, and tin prices will show a fluctuating adjustment trend. The rigid constraint factor on the raw material side remains the key to supporting tin prices, while the overall demand situation is still relatively weak despite the driving force of emerging fields on the demand side.
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