Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market of spot rubber in the domestic natural rubber market on July 13 fell by about 470 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, and the offer price was reduced by about 400-500 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12300 yuan / ton, down about 3.42% from the quotation of the previous trading day, and down 4.65% year-on-year.

Industry focus: macro: on the evening of July 12, the international oil price collectively fell by more than 6%. Brent crude oil futures fell below the key psychological integer of $100 / barrel within one hour of the opening of U.S. stocks. The WTI of U.S. oil fell as low as $97 / barrel. In the early morning, the decline of U.S. oil expanded to 8%; In the night trading of domestic futures, the main contracts almost fell across the board, of which the main rubber contract ru220 fell sharply to about 12300, and the opening of the 13th continued to fall sharply, as low as about 12035. Supply and demand: in the peak season of rubber production at home and abroad, the output increases rapidly. Domestic spot rubber ushered in the stock accumulation cycle, and the inventory delivered in the previous period showed an upward trend. The downstream demand is weak, and the rubber price continues to be weak.

Aftermarket forecast: under the background of superimposed demand list in the peak season of rubber production and certain inventory pressure, downstream enterprises are not enthusiastic about purchasing, and the aftermarket natural rubber market is expected to continue to be weak.

On July 12, the average market price of TDI in East China was 17475 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day, and the market was temporarily stable. At present, the supplier’s inventory is not under pressure, and the market mentality is dominated. The offer of the goods holder is temporarily stable, and the shipment is negotiated. The downstream market entry continues to just need to be followed up. The business mentality is deadlocked and wait-and-see, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is weak. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 17200-17500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17400-17800 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market consolidation will be the main operation, and the price may fluctuate slightly. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of sulfur in East China was 2773.33 yuan / ton on the 11th, down 12.42% from the previous working day. Shandong refinery enterprises sharply reduced their quotations over the weekend, followed by individual refineries on Monday, with sulfur down 490-600 yuan / ton compared with last Friday.

At present, the downstream phosphate fertilizer and sulfuric acid market is weak, the demand for sulfur is limited, the shipment of enterprises is blocked, the inventory pressure increases, and there are low-cost sources in the market, resulting in increased resistance to the sale of refineries, and the quotation of enterprises falls again and again. However, the price of crude oil at the raw material end falls, which is indirectly bad for the sulfur market. Considering all factors, the sulfur support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and the price will continue to decline, Pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

Aniline rose slightly this week, according to the data on the bulk list of business society. On July 1, the price in Shandong was 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; On July 8, the price in Shandong was 11800-12000 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from last week and 17.65% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: affected by the sharp decline in crude oil during the week, bulk commodities collectively weakened; Pure benzene in Asia fell continuously, with bad external news; Coupled with general domestic buying, the price of pure benzene fell. On Friday (July 8), the price of pure benzene was 9200-9550 yuan / ton (the average price was 9267 yuan / ton), which was 2.54% lower than last week and 7.38% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price of domestic nitric acid fell this week. The domestic production price of nitric acid was 2950 yuan / ton on July 1 and 2917 yuan / ton on July 8. The price was 1.13% higher than that of last week and 21.53% higher than that of the same period last year.

The downstream demand follows up generally, and the rubber additives industry has entered the traditional off-season, and the demand is relatively weak compared with the previous period. However, due to the decrease in shutdown of some aniline plants, the operating rate decreased significantly, the factory inventory remained at a normal level, and the high cost price, the support remained, and aniline rose slightly during the week.

3、 Aftermarket expectations

On the cost side, in terms of pure benzene, the decline in the price of pure benzene drives the increase of downstream buying gas, and it is expected that the short-term weakness of pure benzene will fluctuate.

In terms of nitric acid, the raw material market is weak, and the downstream products rise and fall, and nitric acid is expected to be weak, mainly finishing.

At present, the cost side and the spot supply of aniline reduce to support the price. If the downstream demand is stable, it is expected to continue the sideways consolidation in the short term. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

Price trend

On the 7th, the mainstream quotation of vitamin C food grade was 30-34 yuan / kg, and the mainstream quotation of feed grade was 28-32 yuan / kg. The price of raw corn is high, but the demand is insufficient. The peak maintenance season is coming, and the production and sales are weak. For the time being, there is no obvious good news, so the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

On the 7th, the price of vitamin A fell slightly. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A was 120-130 yuan / kg, and the European market quotation was 51-55 euros / kg. The peak maintenance season is concentrated in mid July, when the supply will be tightened, which may boost the vitamin a market to a certain extent.

On the 7th, the price of vitamin E fell, and the quotation of feed grade vitamin E was around 80-85 yuan / kg. The European market quotation is 9.4-9.9 euros / kg. The maintenance of vitamin E device of domestic production enterprises began in mid July. At the same time, the export market returned to normal. It is expected that the price of vitamin E will be strong.

Aftermarket forecast

Vitamin analysts of the chemical branch of the business community believe that: on the whole, the overall market of vitamins is weak, and the future market will pay close attention to the status of enterprises’ opening and parking and the delivery of goods.