1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has recently fallen, with a price of 8834.67 yuan/ton on August 1st; On August 9th, the price was 8544.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 8.48% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Recently, the overall trend of pure benzene has continued to decline. At present, the inventory of pure benzene ports is declining. The inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu Province is 35000 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons or 12.06% compared to the previous inventory of 39800 tons. As of August 9th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in Shandong market is 8500 yuan/ton. At present, downstream procurement is weak, market transactions are poor, and the pure benzene market is weak and declining.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec has dropped to 8400 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

This week, the styrene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. In August, there were many maintenance visits to the styrene plant. On the 6th, the 500000 tons/year styrene plant in Dagu, Tianjin was shut down for maintenance for one month. The recent rise in the styrene market has been weak, and spot demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased, and the styrene market has fluctuated and consolidated. At present, the transaction price of styrene in Jiangsu region is 9460 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil: International oil prices have risen. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 09 rose $0.96 per barrel or 1.28% at 76.19; ICE Brent Oil Futures 10 contract 79.16 rose $0.83 per barrel or 1.06%. The main contract for Chinese INE crude oil futures, 2409, rose 9.5 to 555.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 8.6 to 564 yuan/barrel in night trading.

Crude oil prices are fluctuating in a high range, with good cost support. The inventory of pure benzene at ports has slightly decreased, and pure benzene may rise slightly in the short term. We are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since August, terminal demand has been sluggish, and the hydrogen peroxide market has been weakly declining. On August 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 913 yuan/ton. On August 8th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 886 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92% in price.

Low terminal demand, hydrogen peroxide market continues to weaken

Starting from August, due to poor terminal demand, the purchase of hydrogen peroxide by printing and paper manufacturers has decreased, resulting in a weak upward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market and an overall downward trend. The mainstream domestic quotation is 800-960 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is about 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is about 960 yuan/ton, with stable prices.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that after mid August, the operating rate of the printing and paper industry will decline, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will remain sluggish, putting pressure on the upward trend of the hydrogen peroxide market in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6490 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% higher than the reference average price of 6480 yuan/ton on August 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 7th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6750 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.50% compared to the reference average price of 6716 yuan/ton on August 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market has been in a state of price stagnation and consolidation. As of August 7th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6350-6600 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6400-6600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6750 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is tight, and market prices have risen. Yellow phosphorus enterprise owners have issued preliminary orders. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased, market transactions have improved, and enterprises are mainly reluctant to sell. It is expected that the short-term yellow phosphorus market will continue to remain strong.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the price of phosphate rock market has been running steadily, with tight supply in some areas and stable market demand. Downstream demand remains mainly driven by essential purchases. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market have been weak. The spot supply of phosphoric acid is tight, and market inventory is limited. The terminal demand is relatively weak, with downstream urgent replenishment as the main focus, and the market transaction atmosphere is average.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been consolidating after the recent rise in prices. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to an increase in cost support. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with a focus on low price transactions. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will experience a narrow consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market continued to consolidate weakly in early August, with prices of various brand products fluctuating narrowly. As of the afternoon of August 6th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders was around 7807.14 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase or decrease of -0.55%.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

At the end of last month, the international crude oil market experienced frequent fluctuations, which affected market confidence and led to a decline in prices. Due to the unexpected continuous decline in US crude oil inventories and the escalating tensions in the Middle East, many industry players are bullish on the future. At the same time, after the previous price loosening, there was trading volume, and OPEC+’s stance on reducing production was firm. The expected rise in international oil prices is favorable for PP. The flow rate of downstream propylene sources is generally average, and prices have fluctuated and adjusted overall. In terms of propane, due to the rise in liquefied gas prices, propane has been pulled up and strengthened, while PDH production costs have improved. Overall, there has been a slight improvement in the support for PP from various raw materials recently.

Supply side:

At the beginning of August, the load level of domestic PP enterprises reached an average of over 70% of the previous operating level. Recently, there have been fewer short repair messages compared to resumption of work, leading to an expected increase in supply. The current industry load is around 75%. The production level is generally stable, the inventory of wire drawing materials has increased, and the factory pricing of enterprises has been narrowly lowered. At present, the on-site supply of goods remains abundant, and the supply pressure is stable with some increase.

In terms of demand:

At the beginning of August, there was no improvement in the demand side of PP, and the overall load of terminal enterprises remained stable at a low level. Among them, the consumption of woven bags such as fertilizers and cement is at a low season level, and the operating rate of plastic weaving enterprises is low and narrow, with weak enthusiasm for replenishing inventory. Due to the high raw material prices and slow cost transfer, the direction of membrane enterprises has resulted in low profit margins, leading to replenishment operations centered around essential needs. The comprehensive operating rate of injection molding enterprises has also fallen at a low level. The trading atmosphere in the downstream market of PP is generally average, with limited new orders and mostly pre delivery contracts. The demand side has poor support for the PP market.

Future forecast

Recently, there has been a narrow decline in the domestic PP market prices. From a fundamental perspective, the comprehensive support of upstream raw materials for PP has slightly rebounded, and the off-season market on the demand side is difficult to change. At the same time, there is a trend of increasing supply and demand in the future. In August, there is a demand for moving warehouses and changing months in the market, which activates the entry of funds and drives the basis to strengthen. Although some spot trading sentiment has been activated, there is poor trading on the market, with new orders trading around the low-end position, resulting in significant resistance to price increases. Overall, it is expected that the PP market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of mixed xylene market has been declining recently (7.26-8.5). On August 26th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09% from 7760 yuan/ton on July 26th. The overall market for mixed xylene in this cycle has declined, but there are differences in the magnitude of price adjustments, with a weekly drop of 120-150 yuan/ton. As of August 5th, the mainstream price range for xylene in the South China market in the morning was 7600-7700 yuan/ton. The overall decline in the crude oil market during the week has dragged down the mentality of the spot market, and market quotes have generally followed suit. On the demand side, due to the decline in market quotations, there is a demand for bargain hunting in downstream areas, and bargain hunting transactions have occurred in various regions. Market negotiations have improved compared to the previous period.

Cost aspect: Due to the escalating geopolitical tensions, investors are concerned about the escalation of the Middle East conflict; The significant decrease in US crude oil inventories has provided support for oil prices. As of August 2nd, international crude oil futures have fallen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.52 per barrel, a decrease of $2.79 or 3.7%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $76.81 per barrel, a decrease of $2.71 or 3.4%. The crude oil analyst of Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the situation facing crude oil is very complex, and crude oil may intensify its volatility. At present, it is necessary to pay attention to further developments in the Middle East situation, as the tense situation may continue to push up the risk premium of crude oil. At the same time, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has also brought certain benefits to demand, and oil prices may continue to seek upward space. In the medium to long term, the supply uncertainty in the oil market is increasing, especially with the upcoming US presidential election. If the Republican Party wins, it may have a more profound impact on the oil market, and US crude oil production may be subject to policy increases. The future game of crude oil supply and demand may seek a rebalancing.

Supply side: As of August 5th, Sinopec’s xylene quotations have generally decreased this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7550 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7450 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7500-7600 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7550 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the phthalic anhydride market continued to decline this week. As of August 5th, the phthalic anhydride market in Shandong Province, China, had a downward trend, and downstream factories maintained their essential procurement. High end transactions were hindered, and the mainstream for on-site ortho benzene source negotiations was between 7600-7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week; The mainstream price for naphthalene based source negotiations is 7350-7500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The price of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable, while the downstream plasticizer market is fluctuating and falling. The operation of on-site merchants’ equipment is stable, and the sales situation is average.

On August 5th, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 8500 yuan/ton for xylene, with prices in East China, North China, Central China, and South China all implementing this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and sales are normal. As of August 2nd, CFR China’s closing price was 1005.33 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.34 US dollars/ton from last week.

On Friday (August 2nd), the Asian xylene market closed down, with FOB Korea closing at $869-871/ton in August, a decrease of $7/ton; In August, CFR China closed at $904 per ton, a decrease of $3 per ton.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, low oil prices dragging down market sentiment, and currently insufficient cost support. The downstream procurement demand on the supply side is still acceptable in the near future, and most refineries are actively shipping. The inventory in the factory is stable with a slight decrease. But with the subsequent commencement of some facilities, there may be negative factors on the supply side. The recent performance on the demand side is still acceptable, but it may be difficult to sustain in the future. Overall, the xylene market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the price range will mainly fluctuate in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the impact of the resumption of xylene production on the market supply side.