Aluminum prices strengthen in October
Aluminum prices strengthened in October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 21293.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.70% from the market average price of 20733.33 yuan/ton on October 1.
The aluminum price has exceeded the 21000 mark and is at a relatively high level in the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has fallen from its high level, and the profit per ton of aluminum is currently in a relatively good position.
Social inventory continues to decrease in October
As of October 30th, the social inventory in mainstream areas of China was 605000 tons, which completely consumed the accumulated holiday inventory. This is lower than the 614000 tons on September 25th and 29000 tons off inventory compared to 634000 tons on October 9th.
List of favorable news for aluminum ingots in October
Macro factors:
1. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as scheduled, with hawkish statements from Powell; On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve held its FOMC meeting and decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% -4.00% with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against. This was the second interest rate cut of the year and the second consecutive one since the start of the rate cut cycle in September. But after the meeting, the Federal Reserve’s Powell made hawkish remarks, pouring cold water on the previously unanimously expected December interest rate cut in the market.
2. The heads of state of China and the United States met smoothly, and the spokesperson stated that the US will suspend the implementation of its 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29th for one year. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9th for one year, and will study and refine specific plans that are basically in line with market expectations.
Overseas supply side disturbance:
Century Aluminum announced on October 21st that its Noreur รก l Grundatangi smelter in Iceland has suspended production due to electrical equipment failures. One of its two electrolytic aluminum production lines has been forced to shut down, temporarily reducing production by two-thirds. This has led to a decrease in overseas aluminum supply, providing some support for international aluminum prices and affecting the domestic aluminum ingot market.
The domestic consumption peak season continues:
The domestic consumption peak season continues, and the demand for aluminum is performing well. Although the high price of aluminum has somewhat suppressed the enthusiasm of downstream procurement, downstream still maintains rigid demand procurement. Among them, the demand resilience of new energy vehicles, new energy cables and other fields is strong. For example, in September, the retail penetration rate of passenger cars was 57.8%, and the aluminum rod processing fee in Guangdong remained at a high level of 550 yuan/ton.
Market expectations are positive:
Goldman Sachs and other institutions have raised their expectations for aluminum prices, believing that after implementing stimulus measures, China’s demand potential will be greater, and aluminum prices will benefit from China’s equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade in programs.
Stay tuned for the future market
Recently, the macro sentiment of non-ferrous commodities has been relatively strong. As for aluminum products, there have been disturbances in overseas supply. Rio Tinto stated that its Tomago aluminum smelter in New South Wales is facing high electricity price pressure, and its Tomago aluminum smelter in New South Wales is considering stopping operations after the current electricity supply contract expires. Overseas supply has positive support, and aluminum prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term for aluminum ingots.
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