1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 2507 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2506 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.04% in price and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85% in price. On February 2nd, the baking soda commodity index was 166.33, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.47% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 88.43% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of baking soda is consolidating and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is consolidating, with a mainstream market quotation of around 2200-2700 yuan/ton. According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2380 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the weekend was 2370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%, a decrease of 12.35% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent consolidation of baking soda prices, the recent consolidation of upstream raw material soda ash, and the recent stocking of pharmaceutical, textile, and food downstream of baking soda before the Spring Festival, as well as demand based procurement, is a game of supply and demand. Overall, it is expected that the consolidation of baking soda prices will be the main trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

In January, the price of acetic anhydride first fell and then rose

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of January 31st, the price of acetic anhydride was 5912.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50% compared to January 20th, which was 5825 yuan/ton. Compared to January 1st, the price of acetic anhydride was stable at 5912.50 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. Yankuang Lunan acetic anhydride equipment stopped short, and downstream customers stocked up before the Spring Festival, resulting in an increase in the price of acetic anhydride. In January, the price of acetic anhydride first fell and then rose.

In January, the price of acetic acid first fell and then rose

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the price of acetic acid was 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.12% compared to the 3200 yuan/ton price on January 1st. In January, several acetic acid manufacturers in Ningxia, Shandong, and Hebei experienced equipment shutdowns or load reductions, leading to a tightening of acetic acid supply and an increase in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, the price of acetic acid increased in January, leading to an increase in the cost of acetic anhydride; As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises of acetic anhydride are operating at a low level, resulting in poor demand for acetic anhydride and significant downward pressure on it; The Yankuang Lunan acetic anhydride equipment briefly stopped, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride supply. Overall, the tight supply of acetic anhydride and rising costs, coupled with weak demand for acetic anhydride, are expected to result in weak and stable prices in the future.

Aluminum prices slightly declined in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31, 2024, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.13% compared to the aluminum price of 19563.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (January 1). Aluminum prices have almost unilaterally declined in the first half of the year. On the one hand, due to the approaching holiday, downstream processing enterprises have gradually weakened their production, and spot demand has decreased, leading to an increase in the proportion of ingots in the industry; On the other hand, due to the influence of aluminum oxide prices, aluminum prices fluctuate accordingly.

In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

Fundamentals of supply and demand

In terms of demand, due to the impact of the off-season of consumption, downstream production in China has continued to decline, and there has been no significant improvement in aluminum profile orders. Downstream demand for building profiles is weak, while the production of photovoltaic and automotive profiles in the industrial profile sector is stable.

There are signs of a turning point in social inventory within the month

In late January, social inventory shifted from being depleted on a weekly basis to accumulating on a weekly basis. As of January 29th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China is 444000 tons, which is 421000 tons higher than the social inventory on January 22nd and has accumulated 23000 tons; On January 2nd, the social inventory was 446000 tons, and the social inventory in mainstream regions fell first and then rose during the month. Approaching the off-season of downstream demand (the aluminum processing industry is expected to be on holiday from the end of January to mid February), it is expected that demand may continue to weaken, and a turning point in social inventory may come in the short term.

However, social inventory is currently at a low absolute value, with year-on-year data showing a low level for the same period in nearly seven years.

Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in February

At the end of January, there were signs of stabilization in aluminum prices. On the one hand, this was due to the aluminum price falling below 19000 yuan/ton, stimulating downstream pre holiday stocking demand. On the other hand, the news about aluminum oxide was positive, and cost support was strengthened.

Inventory data may experience periodic accumulation in February. Currently, aluminum inventory is relatively low year-on-year, and the accumulation phenomenon is delayed and better than expected. At present, the inflow and storage of water in Yunnan during the dry season are better than in previous years, and the possibility of a second round of reduction in production of electrolytic aluminum in the local area has decreased. The long short game intensifies, and the short-term aluminum price fluctuates strongly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate remained stable and fluctuated weakly in January. On January 30th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 91400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77% compared to the average price of 94000 yuan/ton on January 1st. On January 28th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 100800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.14% compared to the average price of 103000 yuan/ton on January 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate gradually stabilized in early January, and the decline in price continued to decrease. Most companies mainly offered stable prices. In terms of supply, domestic lithium salt manufacturers are still stable in production, and some lithium salt enterprises with smaller production capacity in certain regions have gradually entered a state of production reduction and shutdown since January, resulting in a decrease in the supply of lithium carbonate in the market. After the New Year holiday, some lithium salt companies have reduced their shipping pressure, but their willingness to ship individual items remains sluggish, resulting in a slowdown in the decline in lithium carbonate prices.

In terms of demand, against the backdrop of the decline in spot prices of lithium carbonate and the expected reduction in orders, most positive electrode material companies maintain a low raw material inventory management strategy. There is no willingness to purchase bulk lithium carbonate at high prices in downstream and terminal markets. Some ternary material companies have seen a slight increase in procurement driven by recent orders, while most downstream companies such as positive electrodes have reported no demand for replenishment in the short term. In addition, the overall focus of the market is still showing a downward trend, and market transactions are extremely light. There is a significant price difference between buyers and sellers, and actual transactions are very few.

In late January, the price of lithium carbonate remained stable with slight fluctuations and slightly declined. In terms of supply, with the approaching Spring Festival holiday and the maintenance season of lithium salt factories, lithium salt enterprises did not have any pressure to ship, and their reluctance to sell remained. Lithium salt factories maintained a positive price attitude. In terms of demand, due to the suspension of logistics during the Spring Festival period, enterprises have made purchases in advance to ensure the supply of orders in February. Therefore, inquiry behavior has been relatively active recently, but the actual increase in transaction volume is relatively limited, and the willingness to accept high priced lithium carbonate is still low.

The market situation of lithium hydroxide is weak and wait-and-see, with some companies lowering their high quotations. With the temporary stability of the upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate market, the price of upstream spodumene concentrate is weak and stable, and the cost support is average. The supply side mainly digests inventory, and the downstream demand for high nickel materials is poor. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the lithium hydroxide market is under pressure.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate remains weak and downward, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is lukewarm. Due to insufficient downstream demand, slow shipments, high inventory levels, stable operating rates, and manufacturers operating under pressure, there is a clear pessimistic attitude. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, with main supply contract customers and overcapacity. The lithium battery market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures in January was basically in a range of fluctuations and consolidation. On January 30th, the opening price of the LC2407 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 101950 yuan/ton, the highest price was 102500 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 101000 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.54%. The trading volume was 54900 lots and the position was 141118 lots.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the market is currently in the early stage of the Spring Festival holiday, with producers and traders mainly offering stable prices. There is a slight willingness to replenish inventory in the downstream market recently, but the acceptance of high priced lithium carbonate is relatively low, so transactions are still relatively low. Short term procurement demand is difficult to see an increase, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will stabilize in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 26th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 17.82% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 28500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.01% from the beginning of the month at 27666.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.33% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of trichloromethane has slightly increased this week, with 4.55% last week. The price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable, while the price of raw materials has remained relatively strong. At the end of the year, the overall trading volume in the refrigerant market has turned weak, and the domestic R22 market price has continued to remain stable and move forward.

This week, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices remained stable and continued to move forward, with raw material prices remaining stable. In addition, as the end of the year approached, enterprise quotas bottomed out, supporting the continued strong operation of domestic R134a prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society refrigerant analysts believe that the overall trading volume of the domestic refrigerant market will turn weak by the end of the year, and the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain stable in the short term.