1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on October 17th was 3083 yuan/ton. On October 24th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3083 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate remained stable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on October 17th was 3883 yuan/ton. On October 24th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3900 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.43%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate has steadily increased this week. The high level operation of raw material phosphate rock, the increase in raw material sulfur price, and cost support are favorable. At present, negotiations are mainly focused on the monoammonium phosphate market, and the market in the Northeast region follows up as needed. The factory still has support to be provided. The demand for diammonium phosphate in the market has shown good performance, with an increase in on-site inquiries and a positive trading atmosphere. As of October 24th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is about 3100 yuan/ton, while the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is about 3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The market quotation for 64% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 3900 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, the domestic sulfur market trend is dominant. As of October 24th, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 926.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. This week, the overall high level consolidation of the phosphorus ore market has been operating, and there has been little change in the supply and demand side of the site. The overall supply of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in some regions is still tight, while downstream demand remains stable, with most of the orders already in demand and pre orders. Currently, the overall price of phosphorus ore in the site has not changed much. As of October 24th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 950-1050 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that due to cost support and pending orders, the ammonium phosphate market has steadily risen in recent days. At present, the market is operating well, with manufacturers and distributors mainly offering discounts. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will steadily rise.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has experienced significant stability and slight fluctuations, with spot prices often showing sideways trends. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 23, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 12733.33 yuan/ton, a price level decrease of 3.29% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The overall supply of ethylene at the raw material end is sufficient, and the supply of port inventory is stable. The cost side is unstable, and the benefits for ethylene are not obvious. Operators are often bearish about the current ethylene market;

The trading situation in the vinyl acetate industry is average, and the follow-up of on-site stocking is weak. At the same time, the weakening of upstream raw materials such as ethylene has led to a weak guidance for the vinyl acetate market, and it is expected that the market may continue to be weak. The market for EVA raw materials is weak, and support for the EVA market has declined.

On the supply side:

Recently, domestic EVA enterprises have experienced small-scale maintenance, resulting in a narrow decrease in industry operating rates of around 4% to 77%. The overall inventory pressure of the enterprise is moderate, and the supply pressure is not yet obvious. Some manufacturers have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a stalemate among traders. EVA suppliers have average support for spot goods.

In terms of demand:

The recent sluggish EVA season has not improved. The demand for photovoltaic film has been exhausted for a long time, and there is currently insufficient consumption. The demand for foam shoe materials has been weak for a long time, and the weak demand for EVA continues. Last week, companies focused on just getting goods and were cautious in their operations, without any hoarding operations. The trading volume on the market is flat, with actual orders concentrated in low-end sources, while high priced sources are more susceptible to resistance.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market performed evenly last week. The raw material market has weakened, and the support for EVA spot is loose. There is a certain decline in industry load, and the level of supply pressure is average. At present, the EVA market is plagued by long and short positions, with prices falling at a balance point. It is expected that the EVA market may continue to remain stagnant in the short term.

The price of ortho xylene fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of ortho xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 2.30% compared to the price of ortho xylene on October 13th, which was 8700 yuan/ton; Compared to the price of 9200 yuan/ton on October 1st, the price of ortho xylene decreased by 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.61%. This week, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and decreased, resulting in a decrease in the cost of ortho xylene; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, with weak demand for ortho benzene and weak demand for cost reduction. This week, ortho xylene prices fluctuated and fell.

Raw material mixed with xylene fluctuates and falls

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of mixed xylene was 7550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.62% compared to the price of 8000 yuan/ton on October 13th. The price of naphtha has decreased, the cost of mixed xylene has decreased, the price of mixed xylene has fluctuated and decreased, the cost of raw materials has decreased, and the downward pressure on adjacent xylene has increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the business society, as of October 20th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% compared to the price of 8387.50 yuan/ton on October 13th. The market for phthalic anhydride in Naifa is stagnant, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased. The demand for phthalic anhydride is weak, and the market for phthalic anhydride is operating cautiously. The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data believe that naphtha prices have fluctuated and fallen this week, mixed xylene prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of adjacent xylene has decreased; The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the market for phthalic anhydride is weak, and downstream demand for adjacent benzene is weak. In the future, both the upstream and downstream markets of the ortho benzene industry chain have declined, and the cost of ortho benzene has decreased. The demand for ortho benzene is weak, and it is expected that ortho benzene prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of October 19, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14560 yuan/ton. Compared with October 14 (organic silicon DMC reference 14540 yuan/ton), the price increased by 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that as of this week, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has shown a slight increase and remained stable. In the early stage, during the low price period of organic silicon DMC, downstream companies carried out small-scale low level restocking, with good shipments from large factories and acceptable order volume. Therefore, after entering this week, some factories began to rebound in sales and limited order taking. The overall spot price of organic silicon DMC on the market saw a slight increase, with an upward adjustment range of around 100-200 yuan/ton, and the high-end price of organic silicon DMC rose to around 14800 yuan/ton. Subsequently, due to the loose cost support provided by the downward trend of raw material metal silicon market, the organic silicon DMC market continued to rise weakly and entered a stable consolidation stage. As of October 19, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 14400-14800 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere on the organic silicon DMC floor is mild. Some factories have pre received some orders in the early stage, and the overall supply side pressure on the organic silicon DMC is relatively low. As the cost side prices fall, the wait-and-see sentiment on the organic silicon DMC floor is becoming stronger, and the downstream willingness to continue stocking has weakened. However, although there is an expectation of weakening demand side support, there is no significant short-term pressure on the supply side to still provide market support. Therefore, The organic silicon DMC data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, there will be limited significant changes in the organic silicon DMC market, and the market will continue to remain stable and consolidate. Specifically, it is necessary to pay more attention to the latest news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of October 18, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 998 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1, 2023 (the reference price of phosphate ore was 970 yuan/ton), the price increased by 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.89%.

After the National Day holiday, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market has slightly increased. Entering this week, the overall high consolidation operation of the phosphorus ore market has not changed much in terms of supply and demand. The overall supply of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in some regions is still tight, while downstream demand remains stable, with most of the orders already in demand and pre orders. Currently, the overall price of phosphorus ore in the field has not changed much. As of October 18, the domestic 30 grade phosphorus ore market price reference is around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details need to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is mild, and downstream demand is relatively stable. Winter warehousing has not been fully opened yet. Although the supply side can still provide some support to the market, the phosphorus ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the overall rise and fall of the domestic phosphate ore market is limited, and the market will mostly operate at high levels for consolidation. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to factors such as demand and downstream shipments.