According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3483 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.29% compared to the beginning of the month.

Upstream aspect

The tight supply of domestically produced bauxite continues this month, with prices of domestically produced bauxite in Shanxi and Henan regions increasing. News of the reclamation of domestically produced bauxite in the Jin Yu region has spread, but local mines and alumina plants have slightly insufficient confidence in their ability to resume production. At present, the supply capacity of domestic mines will not be interrupted, but the inventory level of raw materials will decrease.

The high profits in the imported mining industry have stimulated alumina plants to actively resume production, which has led to the need to import to meet some of the demand under the limited conditions of domestic mining. There may be issues with shipping at some ports in Guinea, and there may be additional charges for transportation.

Downstream aspect

As of the end of April, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum has resumed production of 680000 tons per year, and there are plans to resume production capacity in the near future. In terms of equipment operation, a certain electrolytic aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia plans to be electrified and put into operation in May, with an estimated production capacity of about 50000 tons per year.

In terms of inventory: After two months of slow inventory of raw materials, some electrolytic aluminum companies with long contracts that are not saturated have to inquire and purchase in the spot market to ensure raw material inventory.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the supply of domestically produced ore in the upstream continues to be tight, with poor transportation of imported ore and strong cost support. The downstream demand side is actively resuming production, and there is also support for replenishing the original inventory demand. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will rise in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have risen within a narrow range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.4% from the price level on April 21st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The domestic methanol market has continued to rise this week, with some downstream companies starting to stock up before the holiday, and production enterprises continuing to reduce inventory, driving up domestic supply prices. At the same time, the domestic utilization rate has recently declined, and despite the dual benefits, methanol still rose at the end of the month, providing sufficient support for POM.

In terms of supply:

This week, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained relatively stable, with an overall load of around 70%. The weekly production has basically remained stable. Although the inventory of enterprises was digested in the early stage, there is an expectation of a rebound in inventory load in the future. This week, some manufacturers have still raised prices narrowly, but the benefits of maintenance are gradually being digested. Overall, there is an expectation of a rebound in supply pressure, and the supply side’s support for POM spot is weakening.

In terms of demand:

This week, the inventory situation of downstream POM enterprises in China was average, with most of them just in need of goods to maintain production. The release of pre holiday stocking is not obvious, and the consumption level still follows the previous weak trend. The main logic for downstream factories to acquire goods is to maintain and digest inventory, and the flow rate of goods within the site remains poor at the end of the month. Traders have poor credibility and may engage in underreporting or profit taking operations. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the POM market has shown a narrow upward trend. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has basically remained stable, and there are many enterprises resuming work after the holiday, with high supply side pressure expected to return. Downstream consumer follow-up remains weak, with no significant release of pre holiday stocking. At present, the bullish trend of POM is gradually digesting, and it is expected that the market may weaken after the holiday.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market continued to be weak, with spot prices falling narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 25th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11333.33 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.58% compared to April 19th.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market continued to be weak this week, and the supply side of domestic EVA enterprises continued to reduce their load by about 5% to 70%. Due to the increase in petrochemical plant load reduction, market supply has gradually declined, and some auction sources have decreased. However, due to the negative market atmosphere in the early stage, manufacturers have still lowered their prices, and overall, EVA suppliers have not provided strong support for spot goods.

From the demand side perspective, EVA terminal enterprises have started production steadily and slightly this week, and the stocking situation has remained unchanged in terms of purchasing and consumption logic. Among them, there are very few new orders for traditional downstream areas such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires. Affected by the negative market atmosphere, the actual orders were cautious, and there was no significant increase in volume in pre holiday stocking. As the end of the month approaches, there is an increase in the number of merchants offering discounts and taking orders. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have continued to be weak this week. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. The industry load continues to fall, and the ex factory prices of petrochemical plants are still being adjusted. The overall development of the demand side is poor, dragging market momentum. It is expected that the spot price of EVA will remain weak in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has stopped falling and stabilized, with spot prices hitting bottom and rebounding narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 24th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.62% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The domestic methanol market has recently seen a narrow rise, and the current fundamental contradiction is not significant. The construction of enterprise facilities is at a high level, and downstream enterprises have a certain resistance to high prices. But the social inventory position is relatively low, and the market atmosphere in the early stage is still good. At present, the supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is expected that the short-term domestic methanol market price consolidation will be the main focus.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has declined, and the overall load has decreased by about 9%, with a rate of 71%. The synchronous reduction in production has partially digested the inventory position of the enterprise. Some manufacturers have implemented price adjustments, coupled with rising external prices, overall supply pressure has eased, and supply side support for POM spot has increased.

In terms of demand:

Recently, the inventory situation of downstream POM enterprises in China has been average, and most of them just need to pick up goods to maintain production. The consumption level continues to maintain the previous weak trend, and the main logic of factories is still to digest inventory. As the end of the month approaches, traders are engaging in profit giving and order taking operations, making it difficult to maintain a smooth trading atmosphere on the exchange. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The recent trend of the POM market has stopped falling and stabilized, followed by consolidation and operation. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has decreased, and there is still an expectation of a decline. The pressure on the supply side has been alleviated to some extent, and manufacturers may raise prices or rebound narrowly. Downstream consumer follow-up remains weak, with no significant release of pre holiday stocking. The current supply and demand of POM are intertwined, and it is expected that the short-term market may remain stagnant.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has continued to decline, with most spot prices being lowered. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 23, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14712.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.42% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has recently weakened. The price of raw material pure benzene remains stable and firm, with cost support affecting the sideways trend. In terms of supply, some maintenance companies in the early stage have resumed work and returned, leading to an increase in production and increased supply pressure. The caprolactam market has sufficient supply, limited downstream demand, and weak market trading. The cost support of caprolactam for PA6 has weakened.

In terms of supply: Recently, there has been a high-level adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of around 82%, and the production level has remained flat compared to the previous horizontal trend. As the end of the month approaches, the market has abundant supply of goods, and the overall support from suppliers for PA6 spot goods is average.

In terms of demand: In the downstream sector, the recent production in the main downstream industries has remained stable. The operating rate of spinning is around 85%, and the weaving load is stable at 72%. Although the overall situation has remained stable compared to the previous period, the holiday is approaching and some stocking needs are being released. However, due to the gradual decline in PA6 prices, downstream enterprises have a more cautious attitude towards the decline. On exchange trading has rebounded in caution, and there is still some support for the demand side of PA6.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the PA6 market has weakened. The price of caprolactam has weakened, weakening the cost support for PA6. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable and small, and terminal enterprises are in urgent need of stocking up. Some May Day reserve warehouse demand is gradually being released. Overall, the current market is plagued by long and short positions, and it is expected that the PA6 market may enter a consolidation phase in the short term.