1、 Trend analysis
This week, nickel prices have shown a “V” shaped trend. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 125866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 2.32%.
Macroscopically, this week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp as scheduled to 3.75% -4.00%, with a bearish candlestick chart and the US dollar index returning to above 100%. However, the sentiment of “all bearish sentiment” dominated, and basic metals generally rose. The marginal suppression of nickel prices on a macro level has weakened.
In terms of raw materials, the new HPM policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the correction factor for low-grade wet ore has been reduced by about 45%. The new HPM for 1.2% nickel ore has dropped to $24.89 per wet ton, which is lower than the actual factory price, and the cost support for the mining end has been lowered. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines has reached its peak, and port inventories have rebounded. The transaction price of nickel iron has fallen to 1070-1085 yuan/nickel, and the overall operation of the raw material side is weak.
On the supply side: Indonesia’s WBN has received new quotas from RKAB, strengthening expectations of loose supply, but ESDM denies approval news, and policy uncertainty still exists. El Ni ñ o drought poses a 30% -40% reduction risk for the wet process project in IMIP park, and a certain HPAL project plans to reduce production by about 30% in September. Domestic refined nickel losses and production cuts are accelerating, and the supply side is intertwined with long and short positions.
In terms of demand, the quality of the “Golden September” peak season is insufficient, and the inventory of stainless steel 300 series has risen to 590900 tons. Steel mills mainly purchase for essential needs, and no large-scale replenishment has been seen. Top battery cell manufacturers in the new energy sector have lowered orders, while lithium iron phosphate continues to occupy the market share of ternary batteries. Nickel sulfate procurement is mainly based on long-term agreements, with few individual orders, and both demand engines are weak at the same time.
Influencing factors: The core variables are the pace of RKAB quota approval in Indonesia and the actual implementation of HPM new policies, with the policy aspect becoming the main driver of short-term nickel prices. At the same time, attention should be paid to the linkage impact of the Fed’s subsequent interest rate hike path on the US dollar and non-ferrous sectors, as well as whether the demand for stainless steel during the peak season can show marginal improvement in late September.
In summary, the macro bearish phase provides a rebound window, but the expectation of loose supply and high inventory (LME 279000 tons) suppress the upper space, and there is support from smelting costs below. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a range bound fluctuation trend in the short term.

1、 Market Review
In the past week (September 9-15), the PA66 spot market has been consolidating strongly, with high prices remaining stagnant and the benchmark price maintaining at 19100.00 yuan/ton. Price fluctuations were limited during the week, and actual orders were mostly negotiated and sold. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 60 day cycle is in the high range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range; The differentiation of the moving average signal, with a 5-day moving average remaining flat, a 10 day moving average falling, and a 20 day moving average rising, belongs to a strong consolidation (bullish) state under a volatile market, and has not yet formed a completely consistent unilateral trend signal.
2、 Cost analysis
The price of upstream adiponitrile has increased, and upstream chemicals such as acrylonitrile have strengthened, driving the increase in cost support for PA66 production. In the early stage, the slicing price was close to the industry cost line, and the pressure of enterprise losses was significant. The willingness to ship at low prices weakened, and leading enterprises had a strong mentality of raising prices; However, the overall supply of adiponitrile is relatively abundant, and there is currently no significant contraction in supply. The foundation for sustained surge in raw material prices is not yet available.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the domestic PA66 plant has maintained a relatively high level of operation, with sufficient overall supply of goods and no obvious shortage of goods; After the price rebound, manufacturers’ enthusiasm for price increases, but there has been no large-scale production reduction or price protection operation, and the market circulation of goods is still acceptable. In terms of demand, driven by the expected peak season of “Golden September”, inquiries from downstream modification, injection molding, and textile airbag silk industries have rebounded, and there are some preventive replenishment behaviors; However, there has been no explosive growth in actual orders at the terminal, and downstream acceptance of high-level raw materials is limited. Most of them maintain on-demand procurement, and the willingness to stockpile in large quantities is not strong. The demand side is restraining the upward trend of prices. Under the game of supply and demand, the market maintains a pattern of high volatility and consolidation.
4、 Short term forecast
In the short term, the PA66 spot market is likely to continue its strong and volatile pattern. Cost support and peak season expectations are favorable for the market, and there is still some upward momentum; However, in the short term, the price is at a high level in the 60 day cycle, and downstream follow-up efforts are limited. There is significant resistance to sustained and significant surges, and it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 18700-19600 yuan/ton in the short term. The focus is on tracking the trend of adiponitrile raw materials and the actual landing of downstream autumn and winter orders.

In the first half of September, the dichloromethane market continued its strong upward trend since the end of August. As of September 15th, the mixed price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was 2395 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.66% from the beginning of the month.
Analysis of Market Driving Factors
Cost side: Strong upward trend of dual raw materials, forming the core driving force
The direct raw materials of dichloromethane are methanol and liquid chlorine, and their prices strengthened synchronously in the first half of September, which is the core driving force behind this round of rebound. Methanol continues to rise, with an increase of over 15% within half a month. The significant increase in methanol prices has directly pushed up the production cost of dichloromethane. Liquid chlorine has gradually rebounded from around 150 yuan/ton in early September, with an increase of over 100% within half a month. The rapid recovery of liquid chlorine has a significant marginal impact on the cost side.
Supply and demand: The supply is still relatively loose, and the demand is lukewarm
On the supply side, the operating rate of the methane chloride industry showed a rebound trend in the first half of September. In August, some major enterprises reduced their losses or stopped for maintenance, but there was a lack of obvious new maintenance plans in September. In addition, Gansu Juhua’s new production capacity is expected to be released, and the overall supply in the industry is still relatively loose.
On the demand side, September entered the traditional seasonal demand peak season, but the actual performance was mediocre. There is an expected growth in demand for R32 refrigerant in the core downstream sector, but the increase is limited due to flat terminal consumption; The overall orders for downstream solvents (coatings, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, etc.) are weak, and there is a lack of initiative to replenish inventory; The demand in the export market has also been lackluster. After a round of concentrated replenishment in early September, the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to receive goods began to decline in mid September, and the demand side’s ability to accept high prices has weakened.
Future forecast
Against the backdrop of high prices of raw materials such as methanol and liquid chlorine in the short term, the cost side still provides strong support for the bottom of prices, and manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices will not diminish in the short term. But after a rapid rise in early September, the price has risen to a temporary high, and downstream resistance to high prices has increased. The follow-up efforts of the demand side have slowed down, and the space for further significant upward movement is constrained. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly fluctuate at a high level and narrow range, digesting the previous gains.

The domestic PP market remained positive in the first half of September, with prices of various grades of products increasing. As of September 14th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing was quoted at 10100 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.83% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
The situation in the Middle East was turbulent in the first half of September, making it difficult to implement a ceasefire agreement. The shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have risen, and there are concerns in the market about international crude oil supply. Geopolitical premiums continue to rise, and the remote cost value of PP has risen at a high level. Within the range, propylene also rose due to the boost from the rise in crude oil. The downstream demand has slightly improved, and although the supply of propylene has increased, it has risen to a high level due to the dual benefits. Combined with the rise of thermal coal, the raw material side provided strong support for PP in the first half of September.
Supply side:
In September, domestic PP enterprises experienced a combination of maintenance and restart, with an overall operating rate of nearly 70%, which was relatively stable compared to the end of last month. Recently, enterprises in Guangxi, Dongguan, and other regions have plans to increase their load, and there are expectations of a slight increase in supply in the future. The current weekly average production is still around 720000 tons, and the inventory level is relatively low at around 540000 tons. Overall, the slow recovery of supply and low inventory levels have provided some support for spot prices, and the supply side’s support for spot prices is still acceptable.
In terms of demand:
The current consumption of polypropylene is in the traditional peak season, and demand has gradually emerged from the off-season level since the beginning of the month, with downstream markets in the industry slowly following suit. However, due to the off-season trend on the cost side and the fact that PP spot prices have risen to a high level, buyers’ acceptance of high priced goods is insufficient, and the overall trading atmosphere is cautious. The terminal enterprise strategy tends to be on-demand, with scattered small orders and poor enthusiasm for building warehouses on site. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has slightly improved, and the downstream load is slightly higher than 45%. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PP.
Future forecast
In the first half of September, the domestic PP market saw a significant increase in prices. Fundamentally speaking, the cost side is strong, but it also puts pressure on PP’s off-season cost values. Moderate increase in demand side orders, cautious downstream operations. PP analysts believe that the current PP market is mainly boosted by cost values, while also benefiting from the traditional peak season and tight supply balance. Suggestions for the follow-up direction are to pay attention to the situation of device return and the US Iran situation in the Middle East.

This week, supply has increased while demand has been weak. Manufacturers have continuously lowered their quotes, and the price of raw material propylene continues to rise sharply. The market has rebounded after a decline near the weekend. As of September 11th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 10900-11000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600-700 yuan/ton compared to last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 10650-10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Supply increase:
During the week, the acrylonitrile plant in East China gradually resumed as scheduled, and the overall supply significantly increased. According to statistics, this week (September 4-10), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 74.02%, an increase of 1.83% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 86400 tons, which is+0.22 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The supply gradually increased during the week, and the inventory of some enterprises rose. On September 9th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was about 46500 tons, an increase of+0.65 million tons from last week.
Decreased demand:
This week, the overall utilization rate of downstream major industries’ production capacity decreased, with ABS production capacity utilization rate at 56.4%, a decrease of -1.1% compared to last week, and some factories experiencing a decrease in load; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 49.83%, which was -1.42% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 56.81%, an increase of 0.94% compared to last week. Overall, the demand for acrylonitrile has decreased.
Cost increase:
During the week, crude oil and propylene prices rose strongly, leading to a significant increase in raw material costs. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices experienced a wide decline, resulting in a significant decrease in theoretical production profits. According to statistics, as of September 11th, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market is based on 10000-10050 yuan/ton, with an average price of 10025 yuan/ton, an increase of 725 yuan/ton from last week; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 12155 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 2.94%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -1155 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -1097 yuan/ton.
Post forecast: Currently, the fundamentals are still weak, but the pressure on the cost side is increasing. Suppliers are stabilizing prices and observing, and spot trading is also improving. The supply side maintains growth, but the increase is not as expected. Due to the significant increase in raw material costs, the pressure of losses may prompt some devices to reduce their load. At the same time, the mentality of buying up may also stimulate downstream users to follow up and replenish. There is also a certain demand for stocking before the long holiday. In addition, overseas supply is limited, and export volume has also increased in stages. Overall, the acrylonitrile market may have a slight rebound performance in the short term.