1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of Caprolactam in the domestic market was 12185 yuan/ton on June 1, and the average price of Caprolactam in the domestic market was 12122 yuan/ton on June 26. The price of Caprolactam in the domestic market fell 0.51% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic Caprolactam market price rose first and then fell this month. In early June, the price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated slightly, and cost support was still acceptable. The spot supply of Caprolactam in the market decreased, and enterprises increased prices more often. The willingness of downstream replenishment increased, and the market price of Caprolactam was stable and good. In the middle and late June, the market price of Caprolactam fluctuated and fell. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. The supply of Caprolactam in the market has eased, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased this month. In early June, the price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly, with minor fluctuations being the main trend. In mid to late June, the price of pure benzene continued to decline. On June 26th, the price of pure benzene was 6223.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.7% compared to 6530.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 6200 yuan/ton.

This month, the domestic market for downstream PA6 fluctuated and declined. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. As of June 26th, the average factory price of PA6 in China is 13400 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has been stable recently, and the cost support is general. The downstream is cautious in purchasing raw materials, focusing on rigid demand. The trading of Caprolactam in the market is light, and the transaction focus is lowered. It is expected that the price of Caprolactam will weaken in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been negative, and spot prices have fallen again. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 25th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 11675.00 yuan/ton, a 9.85% decrease from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the methanol market has been weak and declining recently. In the early stage, the price of raw material methanol was weak and consolidated, with poor cost support and significant pressure on formaldehyde inventory, resulting in a weak and declining market. Recently, the methanol market has rebounded, and the probability of formaldehyde following the trend has increased. However, the current support for POM is not strong.

On the supply side:

Domestic POM companies have recently declined, with some maintenance companies resuming work in the early stages. Currently, the industry is facing a close to full capacity deficit. The high load situation continues, and the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually accumulates, leading to a gradual decrease in processing profits.

In terms of demand:

This week, POM terminal enterprises showed weak stocking enthusiasm, with no improvement in operating rates and negative consumption release, which has limited impact on spot prices. Traders lack confidence. It is expected that as the temperature increases, there will still be expectations of a decrease in downstream load. Buyers will buy up instead of falling, with a wait-and-see mentality and flexible real order transactions.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market fell this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants remains high, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. Industry inventory pressure is accumulating, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are operating at a low level and have a relatively low demand for replenishment, resulting in low actual transactions. How much profit is currently available on the market? It is expected that the POM market may continue to be weak in the short term.

The domestic phenol market has rebounded since June 9, and has continued to rise. According to the market analysis system of the business community, the negotiated price of phenol in East China is 6650 yuan/ton, and the average price in the national market is 6787 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 7.8%.

Pre holiday replenishment is intensive and downstream large depositors are bidding. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the port inventory was relatively stable near 22000 tons, but there were large economic operations in the downstream, which accelerated the spot circulation of the phenol market. In addition, the terminal replenishment was concentrated before the Dragon Boat Festival, so there was little pressure for traders to ship, and the market trading atmosphere was benign.

The operating rate of the phenol factory is less than 70%, among which Shanghai Gaoqiao, Jiangsu Ruiheng, and Shanghai Xisa are all in a state of shutdown, and the operating rate of Shenghong Refining and Chemical was also slightly adjusted in mid June. Overall, the industry’s operating rate is at a relatively low annual level.

The factory continues to suffer losses and hopes to raise the listing price. Judging from the profits of the phenol ketone factory, the phenol ketone enterprise has been in a continuous state of loss. Since mid May, the theoretical value of the enterprise has entered a loss. As the market continues to bottom out, the loss has increased. As of the 9th, the market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the enterprise has also adjusted its listing price accordingly. As of now, the enterprise is still on the brink of loss, and it is expected that the post holiday loss will turn into profit.

Business Society believes that after the holiday, it is the end of the month, and there is not much pressure on contract volume shipments. However, it is cautious to follow up with high downstream prices after restocking for a period of time before the holiday. In addition, Jiangsu Ruiheng Phenol Ketone is expected to restart on the 25th, and the industry’s operating rate is expected to further increase. However, the import resources are limited, and the overall impact is not significant. It is expected that the phenol market will continue to rise slightly after the holiday, with discussions in the East China market ranging from 6650 to 6700 yuan/ton.

The domestic acetic acid market is weak and weak, with low raw material prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream demand on the demand side is not good, and purchasing in the market just needs to follow up. In the early stage, the acetic acid plant maintenance was carried out on the market, but due to light market trading, the performance of the acetic acid rise was weak, and the transaction center remained low. In the later stage, the maintenance plant restarted, the market supply increased, and the confidence of the industry was insufficient, resulting in a significant decline in acetic acid prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 20, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 2933.33 yuan/ton, down 8.81% from the price of 3216.67 yuan/ton on June 1, and down 11.11% month on month. As of June 20th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated at a low level. As of June 20th, the average price in the domestic market was 2091.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.24% compared to the price of 2161.67 yuan/ton on June 1st. The price of raw coal has decreased, the support for methanol production costs has weakened, and downstream traditional industries have entered the off-season, resulting in weak demand performance. The methanol market has become stagnant and organized, and the spot price of methanol has fluctuated.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. As of June 20th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5062.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.03% compared to the price of 5387.50 yuan/ton on June 1st. Upstream acetic acid prices have fallen, acetic anhydride costs have decreased, raw material support has weakened, acetic anhydride enterprises are operating normally, market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is weak, market trading is sluggish, and acetic anhydride prices have significantly decreased.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the on-site acetic acid maintenance device is currently restarting, the market supply is increasing, and downstream parties follow up on demand. The intention to hoard goods is not good, the actual market transactions are limited, and there is a lack of positive information on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak and organized in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, starting from June 12th, positive factors supported and terminal demand improved, with a slight increase in the market. On June 12th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 723 yuan/ton. On June 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 733 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.38%.

Positive factors support the recovery of hydrogen peroxide market

Since June 12th, bearish factors have been digested, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the market has improved, leading to an increase in the hydrogen peroxide market. As of June 19th, the prices quoted by hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have increased, with mainstream prices ranging from 700 to 750 yuan/ton, an increase of about 30 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that with the arrival of positive factors and support from terminal demand, the market for hydrogen peroxide may continue to rise in the future.