Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March
Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 29, 2024 was 19490 yuan/ton, which was 18970 yuan/ton higher than the average market price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.74%.
Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in April
The aluminum price in April may continue to fluctuate strongly, for the following reasons:
The production of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable. Although there is an expectation of increasing production in Yunnan, downstream consumption is gradually entering the peak season, and orders continue to recover. At present, social inventory is at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the trend of accumulated inventory is tending to end. As of March 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market was 910000 tons, which is a cumulative inventory of 95000 tons compared to 815000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market on February 29th; Compared to March 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 913000 tons, with a destocking of 3000 tons. In the near future, the social inventory of aluminum ingots may enter a state of destocking, which will provide certain support for aluminum prices.
The international macro sentiment remains strong, with the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the strengthening of overseas monetary easing expectations. The non-ferrous sector has certain financial attributes, which provides positive support for aluminum prices. The final consumer confidence index for March in the Eurozone was -14.9, which met expectations and slightly increased from the previous value of -15.5; The industrial prosperity index for March was -8.8, slightly higher than the expected -9.0 and the previous value of -9.5; The economic prosperity index is 96.3, expected to be 96.3, with a previous value of 95.4. The overall economic prosperity of the Eurozone has recovered, but most indicators are still in negative ranges. Recently, the European Central Bank has taken action to ensure that the economy does not fall into recession, and has begun to release some dovish signals.
It is expected that aluminum prices may enter a volatile and strong operating trend in the short term.
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