441 # silicon price trend

Today, the metal silicon period is now declining, with spot prices falling by 50-100 yuan/ton. Due to insufficient downstream consumption and weak supply and demand, silicon prices are under pressure. In the futures market, at the initial stage of listing, many contracts of industrial silicon fell by the limit, and the market became more bearish.

On the 26th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions was as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port area is 19100-19400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 19000-19300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19150 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 19000-19200 yuan/ton, with an average of 19100 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 18800-19000 yuan/ton, with an average of 18900 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 19800-20000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19900 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Declining Price of Silicon Metal

Supply:

This week, the number of metal silicon furnaces has increased significantly. It is understood that the total number of metal silicon furnaces is 702. As of December 23, the metal silicon furnace opening rate is about 52.56%, 136 in Xinjiang, 44 in Sichuan and 65 in Yunnan. The newly invested capacity in Xinjiang has been fulfilled successively, with a large increase in output on a month on month basis and an increase of 31 units on a week on month basis, which can basically cover the production reduction and excess in the southwest region.

Demand:

The mainstream price of polysilicon is between 265 and 280 thousand yuan/ton. The supply of polysilicon is abundant, and the manufacturer gradually accumulates the stock. The unit operating rate of silicon material enterprises is still at a high level, and the possibility of continued price reduction will not be ruled out in the later period; The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 18900 yuan/ton. Many aluminum alloy enterprises have plans to take holidays in advance. As of the Spring Festival, the expected operating rate will gradually decline, and the level of metal silicon stock is not high; Today’s silicone DMC market ran down in a narrow range. The quotation reference was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous trading day. After periodic replenishment last week, the downstream market of silicone began to cool down. In the short term, the price of silicone was mainly weak and stable.

Future market forecast

In general, the terminal demand did not recover significantly, the supply side was at a relatively high level, and the short-term silicon metal market remained weak and stable. At the initial stage of listing, the market is still playing games to find a reasonable price range.

Price trend of ethylene oxide in December

According to the data of the business cooperative, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic spot market on December 21 was 6800 yuan/ton, which was the same as the average price at the beginning of the month (12.1); It was 9.33% lower than the average market price of 7500 yuan/ton on October 1.

The listing price of ethylene oxide in various regions of China was basically stable, and the factory listing price of mainstream markets in various regions was as follows:

The ethylene oxide market in East China is 6800 yuan/ton; Ethylene oxide market in South China is 6800 yuan/ton; The listing price of ethylene oxide market in central China is 6800 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6800 yuan/ton, and that of some manufacturers in Northeast China is 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The price of ethylene oxide was dragged down by the downstream. After the price was lowered in October, it was weak and stable.

Fundamentals Overview

On the cost side, the price support of raw ethylene is relatively weak; At the current supply end, except for long-term shutdown devices in the early stage, the devices currently in production are basically operating normally, and the load is adjusted as required. In October, a new 730000 tons of devices were put into operation in Satellite Petrochemical, and the domestic ethylene oxide production capacity rose to 7.51 million tons. At present, the capacity operation rate is about 60%. The overall supply is still loose. In terms of demand, the downstream demand is weak. The demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer in the main downstream is expected to weaken greatly due to insufficient terminal building construction conditions. At present, the inventory of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises has accumulated to a medium high level, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has declined, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide is weak.

Future market forecast

The terminal demand is weak and the demand is restrained. Ethylene oxide mainly operates weakly in the short term.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 553333.31 yuan/ton as of December 20, down 1.78% from last Thursday (December 15).

Recently, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market declined. At present, the first tier manufacturers of lithium hydroxide mainly export, the second tier manufacturers mainly supply domestic demand, and the lithium hydroxide market is dominated by long-term transactions. The spot market atmosphere is light. In addition, the recent decline in the upstream lithium carbonate price has weakened the support for lithium hydroxide. The shipment of the holders is under pressure, and the price reduction shipment has increased. The focus of lithium hydroxide market negotiations has declined.

The upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of the business community: on December 19, the reference price of lithium carbonate industrial grade was 544000.00, a decrease of 4.73% compared with December 1 (571000.00).

The lithium hydroxide analysts of the business community believe that the upstream lithium carbonate is currently operating weakly, and the support for lithium hydroxide is insufficient. The supply side is temporarily stable, and the demand side is average. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market will be stable and weak in the short term. More attention should be paid to the impact of upstream lithium carbonate prices.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 19, the price of PET water bottle was relatively strong. At present, the average price is 7130.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% compared with the same period last week. The overall market is mainly stable, and the mainstream price is about 7100 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price is on the strong side, and the price has risen slightly. The mainstream price is about 7100 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere is still good, and the willingness to prepare goods is not good. At present, the logistics is slow, and orders are arranged for shipment.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On December 18, the rubber and plastic index was 668 points, unchanged from yesterday, 36.98% lower than the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and 26.52% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business community believe that the market price of PET is expected to be stable and strong in the short term.

This week’s (12.9-12.16) trichloromethane market fluctuated slightly. According to the data of the business society, the trichloromethane market has fluctuated downward since December. As of December 16, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2325 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from 2312 yuan/ton last Friday, and the cycle low was 2275 yuan/ton. There was no significant increase in demand for chloroform, the pressure on the supply side was slightly reduced, the factory price of enterprises fluctuated in a narrow range, and businesses adjusted slightly.

This week (12.9-12.16), the spot market of methanol fluctuated downward, and the cost of dichloromethane fell slightly. According to the business community, as of December 16, the spot price of methanol was 2655 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from 2680 yuan/ton last Friday, and the peak in the cycle was 2690 yuan/ton.

In the low consumption season, the weak refrigerant market price in the downstream is temporarily stable, the enterprise’s shipment is insufficient, the starting level is low, and the support for chloroform is weak.

Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the pressure on the supply side is slightly reduced, the demand side is weak, and the cost side has a narrow fluctuation in the near future. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.