Recently, the international crude oil market continues to soar, the price of domestic oil products has been adjusted for seven consecutive years, the actual demand for domestic oil products during the Spring Festival holiday is far better than expected, the demand for terminal replenishment is strong, and the price of domestic oil products is rising. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of gasoline on February 23 was 6642 yuan / ton, up 8.57% compared with that before the Spring Festival; the price of diesel on February 23 was 5398 yuan / ton, up 11.02% compared with that before the Spring Festival.

Recently, the price of international crude oil market continued to hit a high point in the year. As of press release, WTI oil price was at 62.5 US dollars / barrel. According to the monitoring of the business community, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil have increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil.

In terms of gasoline demand, the local new year was originally advocated, and the expectation of gasoline terminal demand was not good. However, the domestic epidemic control effect was very good, and the consumption situation in the terminal market was far better than expected. In addition, the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the “seven consecutive rises” of refined oil price adjustment was implemented. The market was bullish, and the demand for terminal replenishment increased. In terms of diesel oil, after the Spring Festival, various places started construction one after another, and the demand for diesel oil in engineering, infrastructure, transportation and other industries continued to rise. Coupled with the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices, the demand for replenishment and hoarding of terminal units increased, and the market demand improved. The sharp rise in international crude oil prices and the increase in terminal demand jointly pushed up domestic oil product prices.

Before the Spring Festival, Shandong local refining enterprises began to reduce their production load. As of February 22, the average starting load of daily pressure relief devices decreased from 73% before the festival to about 70%. The starting load of refineries declined, and the supply of domestic refined oil market decreased slightly, which played a role in boosting the price of refined oil.

Lu Xingjun, refined oil analyst of business association, believes that after the sharp rise of international crude oil prices, or maintain a high operating state, the bullish enthusiasm of domestic refined oil market may decline. At the same time, the operating rate of refineries will gradually pick up after the festival, and the tense situation of market supply and demand will be eased. It is expected that the rising trend of refined oil prices will slow down in the near future.

After the festival, the domestic cis-1,4-butadiene and styrene butadiene rubber market rose sharply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of February 22, the domestic market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 12170.00 yuan / ton, up 8.08% compared with that before the festival; the market price of styrene butadiene rubber was 13650.00 yuan / ton, up 7.55% compared with that before the festival.

In just four working days after the festival, the ex factory prices of cis-1,4-butanol and butylbenzene were increased by about 1000 yuan. According to the business news agency, as of February 22, the ex factory price of emulsion polymerized styrene butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast sales company has increased by 1100 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. At present, Jihua 1502 offers 13700 yuan / ton, and the Northeast warehouse raises the price; Fushun 1502 offers 13700 yuan / ton, and the Northeast warehouse raises the price. The price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast sales company increased by 1000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. At present, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is 12400 yuan / ton.

After the festival, the price of raw materials rose sharply, and the cost of cis-1,4-butadiene and styrene butadiene rubber formed a certain support. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 22, the price of butadiene was 6747 yuan / ton, which was 7.42% higher than 6281 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival. As of February 22, the domestic price of styrene was 9300 yuan / ton. Compared with 7183 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival, it was up 29.47%.

After the festival, the price of natural rubber continued to rise. Due to the substitution of natural rubber with cis-1,4-butadiene and styrene butadiene in tire application, natural rubber, cis-1,4-butadiene and styrene butadiene had a certain degree of interaction in price. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 22, the price of natural rubber was 14675 yuan / ton, 4.63% higher than 14025 yuan / ton on the last trading day before the festival. Driving the bullish atmosphere of Shunding and butylbenzene.

Future forecast: the rising price of raw materials and the high price of natural rubber form a strong support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene and styrene butadiene rubber. However, the price rises too fast in the near future. In addition, it will take some time for the enterprises in the later stage of the next festival to fully recover. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene and styrene butadiene rubber will be stable in the short term, and there is still room for rise in the medium and long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, after the Spring Festival, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market began to soar, and the price continued to rise. The price was 7060 yuan / ton on February 14, 7196 yuan / ton on February 17 and 7761 yuan / ton on February 20, with an increase of 9.94% on the 7th and 7.85% on the 4th.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January. After a slight rebound at the end of the month, it began to stabilize. On the 8th, the price of enterprises generally dropped by 50 yuan / ton. Later, it entered the Spring Festival holiday. Most of the first half of the year was stable, while the second half (from February 15) showed a steady upward trend. The 18th was the first day of official work. Today, the price rose by about 200 yuan / ton every day, and 60 yuan / ton after the festival The current market turnover is 7700 ~ 7950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price has risen to 7700 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is less, the shipment situation is more popular. Due to extreme weather in the United States, the units are frequently overhauled, and the restart time is uncertain, resulting in a sharp decrease in propylene production and soaring prices; due to the earthquake in Japan, the units are also affected, resulting in a decrease in propylene production capacity.

On February 19, crude oil prices fell slightly, but there is still a certain cost support capacity.

Recently, the price of PP also rose continuously, with a 4-day rise of 7.50%. The futures market is also ideal, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Recently, the price of acrylic acid also went up, with a 3-day increase of 2.87%, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.

Recently, the market of propylene oxide rose steadily, with a 4-day increase of 3.77%, which also had a slight positive effect on propylene.

Recently, epichlorohydrin market rose slightly, with a 4-day increase of 1.53%, which has little impact on propylene.

Recently, the domestic n-butanol price rose rapidly, with an increase of 26.16% on the fourth day, which has a significant positive effect on the propylene market.

In recent days, the trend of octanol is similar to that of n-butanol, and it is also on the rise by a large margin, with an increase of 36.36% on the fourth day, which also has a significant positive impact on propylene.

Recently, the price of isopropanol rose slightly, with a rise of 3.28% on the 4th, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.

Phenol Market in East China also rose recently, with a 4-day increase of 9.87%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Recently, the acetone market in East China has been stable, and the market price has risen slightly, which has little impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of Shangshe chemical branch believes that: in general, the international production has decreased significantly, and the short-term recovery capacity of the plant is limited, the domestic inventory is small, the crude oil price still has a supporting effect, the downstream operating rate is ideal, the demand is strong, and the price rises obviously, so it is expected that the propylene market will rise again after a short consolidation at a high level in the near future.

According to the price monitoring data of business association, as of February 19, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol containing packaging in mainstream areas was around 10700 yuan / ton, which was 166 yuan / ton lower than that on February 1, 2021 (reference price 10866 yuan / ton), a decrease of 1.53%; compared with that on January 1, the average price was 1100 yuan / ton lower, a decrease of 9.32%.

Weak before the festival and stable after the festival

Since 2021, the domestic industrial n-propanol market has been falling all the way, and before the Spring Festival, the domestic n-propanol market has again declined slightly by 200-300 yuan / ton. After the end of the holiday, on the 18th, the factory quotation of n-propanol given by the manufacturers of n-propanol in Nanjing and the secondary market of n-propanol in Shandong was basically the same as that before the Spring Festival. The current inventory of the factory was normal, and the supply began to develop. As of February 19, the factory quotation of n-propanol bulk water in Shandong Province is around 9600-10200 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that before the Spring Festival, and the price including packaging is around 10500-11100 yuan / ton, which is the same as that before the Spring Festival. The reference factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing is 9500-10000 yuan / ton, which is the same as that before the Spring Festival.

In terms of raw materials, the external price of ethylene rose recently, reaching US $970.75/t on February 8 and US $1003.25/t on February 19, up 3.35%. The current price has dropped by 4.95% on a month on month basis, and the current price has increased by 25.13% on a year-on-year basis. As of the 18th, Asian ethylene market prices rose slightly, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at US $852-860 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closing at US $827-835 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly, with FD closing at US $1164-1177 / T in northwest Europe and CIF closing at US $1150-1161 / T in northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States has soared, ranging from US $914 to US $926 per ton. Recently, the ethylene market in Europe, the United States and Asia has shown a rising trend. Generally speaking, during the Spring Festival holiday, the whole ethylene market has been rising, with a warm trading atmosphere and positive transactions.

Internationally, on February 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.53/barrel, down US $0.61. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, settlement price rose, settlement price of the main contract at 63.93 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.59 U.S. dollars. On Thursday, oil prices rose. Brent once rose above US $65, and then the market high fell, mainly due to the impact of investment profit taking. Previously, due to the extremely cold weather in the United States, the decline of production capacity and the increase of demand have driven oil prices to rise for several days. Despite the sharp reduction of US crude oil inventory, the market is still uneasy about the current virtual high oil price, and the high selling has led to the decline of oil prices.

After the gradual return of the market, there may be a slight correction

After the festival, the n-propanol market has just returned, and the downstream demand has gradually recovered. At present, the market inventory is normal, and the factories supply more qualified users, so the sales pressure is small. As a result, business community propanol data analysts believe that after a short-term consolidation of propanol after the festival, after the gradual release of downstream demand, propanol market may usher in a steady correction.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency: zinc prices soared after the festival. On February 18, the average price of zinc was 21473.33 yuan / ton, up 6.25% from 20210.00 yuan / ton before the festival.

LME zinc price trend chart in February

According to the trend chart of LME zinc price in London, the LME zinc price rose sharply in February, and the domestic zinc market remained stable before the festival. The international zinc price rose, the domestic zinc market fluctuated and stabilized, the domestic zinc market’s rising power accumulated, and the zinc market’s rising power increased.

LME zinc price rises and falls during Spring Festival

Date ﹣ closing price ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ relative pre Festival ﹣ cumulative rise and fall ﹣ unit

February 10 – 2729 – - – USD / T

February 11 – 2801 – 72 – 2.64% USD / T

February 12 – 2837 – 36 – 108 – 3.96% USD / T

February 15 – 2844 – 7 – 115 – 4.21% USD / T

February 16 – 2844 – 0 – 115 – 4.21% USD / T

February 17 – 2810 – 34 81 – 2.97% USD / T

It can be seen from the rise and fall table of zinc price in LME market that during the Spring Festival, the international zinc market rose, which stimulated the domestic zinc market to rebound and rise. After the festival, the soaring zinc price released the rising pressure, and the rising power of zinc market was greater.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business news agency, believes that: since February, the price of zinc in LME market has been fluctuating and rising, and the price of zinc in international market has been warming up and rising, which is good for the domestic zinc market. During the Spring Festival, the price of zinc in LME market has been fluctuating and rising, which is good for the domestic zinc market. After the festival, the price of zinc has soared, and the price of zinc has risen by 1000 yuan a day, releasing the upward pressure of zinc market. Generally speaking, the supply and demand changes of domestic zinc market are limited, the rising power of zinc market is not enough to support the continuous rise of zinc price, and the future zinc market is expected to be adjusted by shock and rise slightly.