In September, the PTA market emerged from a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, it was driven by the cost of crude oil and PX, coupled with tight supply caused by previous equipment maintenance, and spot prices fluctuated upwards. After a mid month surge, with the concentrated restart of multiple maintenance equipment, supply pressure rebounded. However, the downstream “Golden September” peak season did not meet expectations, and prices fell back, maintaining an overall range oscillation pattern.
In early September, PTA spot prices strengthened due to cost support, leading to an increase in spot prices. Starting from the middle to late of the month, multiple sets of PTA plants have been restarted and the operating rate of the industry has continued to rise. The market supply has gradually increased, and the market has shifted from destocking in the early stage to slightly accumulating inventory. Spot prices have fallen from high levels. As of September 24th, the benchmark spot price of PTA in East China was 7147 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.86% from the beginning of the month.
The international crude oil market trend first rose and then fell. As of September 23, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $92.16 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $95.41 per barrel. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous decline in the efficiency of cross-strait navigation, and the tightening of physical supply has provided solid bottom support for oil prices, resulting in an upward trend in crude oil prices. Starting from mid month, with the optimistic expectations of the market for the easing of the conflict in the Middle East and the restoration of crude oil supply, the trading logic of the previous supply panic has been completely reversed. The two benchmark crude oil prices have fallen sharply in sync, both hitting their lowest points since September 9th, and the energy sector as a whole has weakened.
From the perspective of PTA supply, the maintenance equipment was basically restarted in September, and the domestic PTA production steadily released. The processing gap remained at a relatively reasonable level, further stimulating the production enthusiasm of enterprises. The subsequent supply side increment still exists, which suppresses prices.
In addition, the demand side has become the core factor restricting the upward trend of the market. The traditional textile “Golden Nine” peak season has seen weak performance, causing downstream polyester enterprises to suffer losses. Multiple factories have implemented production cuts and maintenance, and the comprehensive operating rate has remained around 74%. The order follow-up of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is limited, and downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs. The willingness to actively replenish inventory is not strong, and there has been no obvious outbreak of end consumption. The demand side is difficult to drive PTA to continue to rise, and downstream stocking efforts are also relatively limited before National Day.
In the future, PTA will continue to experience a volatile pattern of cost bottoming out and supply and demand suppression. The cost of crude oil and PX raw materials provides support, but the supply continues to recover and demand falls short of expectations, resulting in insufficient momentum for a significant upward trend. Without the stimulation of a significant increase in crude oil prices, it is difficult to break out of a unilateral surge.
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