On September 21st, the domestic epoxy propane market experienced a weak downward trend. The mainstream negotiated price in Shandong has dropped to 11070-11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; The Northeast region has synchronously decreased by 400 yuan/ton. As of September 21st, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 11233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.01% compared to the beginning of this month.
On the raw material side, cost support has weakened. Previously, the price of propylene was strongly supported by the rising costs of crude oil and propane, but after entering this week, there were signs of a decline in crude oil and propylene prices, and the cost side’s support for epoxy propane weakened, leading to a bearish market sentiment. As of September 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9641.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.39% compared to the beginning of this month (8977.67 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Early maintenance devices are gradually being restarted. The device has resumed operation, and the market supply has significantly increased compared to the previous period, easing the tight spot situation. The domestic capacity utilization rate has rebounded from around 64% to around 70%, and the expected increase in supply is gradually being implemented.
On the demand side, the peak season of “Golden September” has shown mild performance, and the overall operating rate of downstream polyether enterprises is not high. There is a clear resistance to high priced raw materials, and they mainly purchase small orders for essential needs, with limited increase in new orders. Other downstream products such as propylene glycol also show a stalemate pattern of cost support and weak demand, with insufficient follow-up on epoxy propane procurement.
Comprehensive forecast: Loose cost support combined with increased supply realization, coupled with weak downstream demand follow-up, may lead to a weak consolidation trend in the short-term epoxy propane market. It is necessary to focus on the pace of device restart and volume increase, as well as changes in downstream stocking willingness.
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