Market trend
In the past week (September 16-22), the PA6 spot market has shifted from a strong consolidation at a high level to a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the market remained at a high level, and mainstream PA6 slicing enterprises generally lowered their quotes by 500-700 yuan/ton during the week. The focus of market negotiations continued to shift downwards, and the bargaining space for actual orders increased, leading to a loosening of traders’ shipping mentality. At the technical indicator level, the 5-day, 10 day, and 20 day moving averages have all turned negative, forming a clear downward signal; From the perspective of cycle position, the 60 day cycle price is at a medium high level, while the 3-month and 1-year cycles are both in the high range, indicating a relatively high price.
influencing factors
Cost end
Upstream pure benzene oscillation weakened, and although the weekly closing price of caprolactam remained high, the driving force for further upward movement of raw materials weakened, resulting in a marginal weakening of cost support for PA6 chips. After the significant increase in slicing prices in the early stage, the processing profits of aggregation enterprises have been compressed, and it is difficult for the raw material side to continue driving slicing prices upward. The support of costs for the market has weakened.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, domestic PA6 polymerization plants are operating at a medium to high level, with sufficient supply of spot goods. After the initial price increase, the factory inventory gradually accumulated, and the mentality of raising prices in the early stage loosened. Mainstream factories voluntarily lowered their quotations, and the market circulation of goods is abundant. There is currently no substantial reduction support brought about by centralized maintenance. On the demand side, the actual fulfillment of the “Golden September” peak season fell short of expectations. Although downstream spinning and modified injection molding industries have urgent orders, there are limited new orders at the end. Downstream consumers have a strong resistance to high-level slicing, mostly maintaining a “buy as you go” model. They lack the willingness to actively replenish inventory in large quantities, resulting in significant resistance to high priced goods transactions. The demand side is unable to bear the high prices in the early stage, which has become the main drag on the market downturn.
Future forecast
The short-term PA6 market is expected to be weak and volatile in the future. The raw material caprolactam still has a certain cost to support the bottom, but the current full cycle price is at a high level, and downstream acceptance capacity is limited. The conditions for a significant rebound in the market are not yet met, and there is short-term room for correction and release. Focus on the price fluctuations of pure benzene and caprolactam, factory quotation adjustments, downstream terminal order landing, and pre holiday stocking progress.
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