price trend
Recently, the domestic PC market has experienced a decline at a high level, and spot prices of various brands have been lowered. As of September 23rd, the PC mixed benchmark price was around 14950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.70% compared to the beginning of the month and a month on month decrease of 2.71%.
Root cause analysis
Supply side: Since early September, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has been average. The overall industry load rate is around 75%. The production loss gap remains stable, with an average weekly output of nearly 60000 tons. The smoothness of shipments from the aggregation plant is still acceptable. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market has seen a broad upward trend since early September. However, the cost of crude oil at the far end has recently plummeted. The Iranian President will attend a meeting in the United States on September 22, and US President Trump has publicly expressed his willingness to meet with the Iranian President. At the same time, Iran has conveyed clear conditions to the mediator to restart negotiations, marking a substantial diplomatic breakthrough signal in the ongoing US Iran confrontation. The focus of market trading has shifted from “supply interruption panic” to “situation cooling and supply recovery”, with phenol falling synchronously. Although the supply of genuine goods on site tends to be tight and balanced, and the inventory of factories and holders is healthy, the spot price of bisphenol A is high and market expectations are negative. It is expected that the spot price of bisphenol A may experience a decline, and the overall support for PC cost value will weaken.
In terms of demand: As we enter late September, there is still no significant peak season signal for PC downstream factory procurement, and the load position of terminal enterprises continues to operate at a low level. The demand for sheet metal shells and other materials is average. Although the tight supply and demand balance of PC in the early stage supported high quotes from merchants, buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods. In addition, there is no stock available before the holiday, and on-site trading is quiet. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and buyers are cautious in stocking up. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic PC market has experienced a high decline. Upstream bisphenol A prices are consolidating at a high level, but the support for PC from remote cost values has fallen sharply, resulting in a bearish outlook in the future. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is still acceptable, but there will be limited changes in future supply. On site trading is dominated by weak demand, and pre holiday stocking operations are rare. At present, the supply and demand of PC are relatively balanced, and the bearish trend of remote raw materials is gradually spreading. Business analysts believe that PC may fall upstream in the short term and suggest closely monitoring the crude oil and demand sides.
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