1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, the price of mixed xylene continued to decline this week. On March 14, the price of mixed xylene was 5750 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 21), the price was 5530 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton or 3.83% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is – 500 / 0 (yuan / ton). Xylene inventory of ports in East China decreased this week, while that of ports in South China rose slightly. Weak downstream demand, coupled with the collapse of crude oil, the market mentality is empty, mixed xylene fell in shock. In terms of external market, as of March 19, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 710 US dollars / ton, down 43 US dollars / ton or 5.71% on March 12, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 727 US dollars / ton, down 44 US dollars / ton or 5.71% on March 12.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil plummeted this week, which flattened the previous gains. International oil prices have plummeted under the pressure of multiple bad news such as the continuous growth of US crude oil stocks for four weeks, the tightening of blockade measures caused by a new wave of epidemic in Europe, the blocked vaccination, the stronger US dollar exchange rate and the soaring US debt yield. On March 12, Brent fell $5.565/barrel, or 8.03%; WTI fell $4.2/barrel, or 6.4%

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is more stable than last week, the price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year, up 21.82% year on year. The domestic supply of p-xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene remains high. The recent trend of international crude oil prices fluctuated, but the PX price did not change much. As of the 19th, the closing prices in Asia were 778-780 US dollars / ton, FOB South Korea and 796-798 US dollars / ton, CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China fluctuated this week and rose slightly. The price was 4497.73 yuan / ton on March 14 and 4507.27 yuan / ton on March 21, up 0.21% from last week and 28.38% from the same period last year. PTA plant centralized maintenance to ease the supply pressure, and the downstream polyester inventory pressure is not big, the contradiction between market supply and demand has eased.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 34.78% compared with the same period last year. The results show that the supply of o-benzene is sufficient, the external quotation fluctuates and falls; the cost side weakens and falls; the downstream quotation weakens and falls, and the demand is just demand-oriented. O-benzene transaction enthusiasm is general, o-benzene market is weak and temporarily stable.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Multiple negative pressure, crude oil fell, xylene mixed cost support weakened; weak follow-up of downstream demand, rigid demand dominated. It is expected that the price of mixed xylene will still drop in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil, the arrival volume of mixed xylene, the dynamic of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, aniline continued to rise this week, and the price reached a new high. On March 12, the price of aniline was 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 12300-12500 yuan / ton in Nanjing. On March 21, the price of aniline was 14000-15500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 13500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, with an average price increase of 15.9% over last week, 81.43% over the beginning of the year and 139.55% over the same period of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the current and futures prices of styrene, the main downstream of pure benzene, fell sharply this week, and the profit space was greatly compressed. Pure benzene was driven down by bad news. Crude oil plummeted on Thursday, which was bad for domestic bulk commodity market. Pure benzene, as the downstream of crude oil, was greatly affected by crude oil, and the focus of spot market weakened. This week, pure benzene port inventory continued to fall, in the de inventory channel, inventory pressure is small, limiting its decline. This week, the price of some SINOPEC enterprises in North China was lowered to 6500 yuan / ton, while that in other regions was basically 6650 yuan / ton. On Sunday (March 21), the price of pure benzene ranged from 6003 to 6650 yuan / ton (average price was 6450 yuan / ton), which was 3.3% lower than that of last week and 67.97% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid rose at the beginning of this week and then stabilized. On Friday (March 19), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2050 yuan / ton, up 3.36% from last week, 2.5% from the beginning of this month and 32.26% from the same period last year.

The price difference between aniline and pure benzene widened, and the profit margin of aniline was better. The 200000 t / a aniline plant in Dongying, Jinling was shut down for maintenance. The supply of aniline in Shandong was tight, and the price rose in the week. Enterprises in East China are mainly engaged in the preparation of shipping goods, with less spot delivery. In addition, driven by the high price of aniline in Shandong, the price rose within the week.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the current downstream styrene market is the main reason restricting the trend of pure benzene. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene will follow the shock finishing of styrene, and there will be a slight decline. However, due to the impending overhaul of several pure benzene units, the low inventory of Sinopec pure benzene and the high price support, the pure benzene market still has a rebound momentum. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

The lower reaches have strong resistance to high price aniline. I heard that some downstream factories have parking plans, or the demand for aniline has decreased. But at present, Jinling Dongying aniline plant is still under maintenance, and the spot supply is tight. Overall, it is expected that the high price of aniline will remain strong in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the follow-up of downstream demand and the dynamic of aniline plant.

The market of ethylene oxide has been stable recently, and the estimated profit is about 310 yuan. The upstream ethylene market is stable, the price of Sinopec is reduced to 8300 yuan / ton, and Luxi Chemical is reduced to 7700 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials is still at a high level, and the cost support is strong at present. The downstream market of ethylene oxide is better than the single market, and the delivery of goods is relatively smooth. At present, due to the influence of the early stage stock market, the transaction volume of the monomer is reduced, and the terminal consumes the stock of raw materials in the early stage, which is more inconsistent with the current monomer price. Therefore, the manufacturer has no intention to adjust the current quotation for the time being. In addition, the terminal operating rate rises slowly, which has an impact on the monomer consumption There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Ethylene glycol was affected by the weakness of chemical fiber production and marketing, with low volatility and many negative factors in the market. The manufacturer slightly reduced the load of ethylene glycol, but the impact on the fundamentals of ethylene oxide was limited.

In terms of units, in order to avoid the commissioning time of satellite petrochemical, Zhenhai Yangzi and Sanjiang units delayed maintenance. Maoming Petrochemical plans to overhaul on the 25th. At present, the epoxy supply side is relatively abundant.

Market participants are stable at present, but it is expected that there will be a downward trend in the long term.

According to business news agency data, on March 18, the average price of silver market in the morning was 5464.33 yuan / kg, up 3.02% in the day, down 0.29% from 5480.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1), and down 1.54% from 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On March 18, the spot price of gold was 367.60 yuan / g, up 0.82% in the day, up 0.55% compared with the average price of 365.60 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (3.1), and down 6.39% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g in the beginning of the year (01.01).

Core inflation expectations rose, precious metal prices rose slightly

At 2:00 Beijing time on the 18th, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations. At the same time, the Federal Reserve raised its economic and GDP growth expectations, but it has no intention to reduce QE in the near future. Core inflation expectations rose, and precious metal prices rose slightly.

Gold price stops falling and rising

The sharp fall of gold in the early stage is mainly due to the high yield of us long-term treasury bonds, the continuous rise of US stock market, the positive trend of international commodities, and the weakening of speculative enthusiasm of precious metal market. Recently, the price of precious metal gold began to stop falling, stabilize and recover slightly. On the one hand, due to the booming domestic precious metal consumer market, the price of gold doubled and the sharp increase of consumer demand in other places during the Chinese New Year. On the other hand, in the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the central banks of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, and the consumer demand for jewelry and gold and silver ware will also increase.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 17, the average price reference of the market quotation of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring is 28833 yuan / ton, and the average price increases 5167 yuan / T, or 21.83% compared with the price of March 1, 2021 (reference price is 23666 yuan / ton); compared with the price before the Spring Festival (reference price of 21533 yuan / ton on February 11, 2021), the average price increases by 7300 yuan / ton, and the total price increases after the saving The results showed that the rate of the treatment was 33.90%.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic silicone DMC market has increased greatly, the upstream and downstream transmission is smooth, and the market transaction atmosphere is good. By the end of February, the factory price of silicone DMC was increased four times after the festival. According to the monitoring of business agency data, the average price after the Festival increased by 1100 yuan / ton in total, and the high-end offer price of silicone DMC in a large factory in Shandong Province rose to 23500 yuan / T, and the last 4 times of the plant were saved The price was increased for the next time, and the total increase was 1700 yuan / ton.

Silicone DMC made high-end offer of 8 price adjustment in March, exceeding 30000 yuan / ton

In March, the trend of silicone DMC continued to be strong, the market was “in a state of the art”, and the downstream silica gel and other products showed good export performance. The demand for silicone DMC raw materials continued to increase, and the market of silicone also rose continuously with the rise of the price of silicone DMC, which formed a strong situation of mutual support. Most of the DMC factories began to seal the offer without report, limited receipt, on-site spot tension, a single is difficult to ask. As of March 17, in more than half a month, the market of silicone DMC has increased the factory price of DMC for 8 times, with a total increase of more than 5000 yuan / ton. On June 16, Shandong Luxi increased the factory quotation of organosilicon DMC to 30200 yuan / ton again, which also created the maximum daily increase of 1100 yuan / ton for silicone DMC in recent half month. Thus, the high-end offer price of silicone DMC exceeded 30000 yuan / T, and the average price reference of silicone DMC was 28833 yuan / T, which was up 5167 yuan / T, or 21.83% compared with that in early March. At present, most other factories do not report the offer, which has been mainly discussed in practice, the factory has compact list and many pre-processing orders.

Since the festival, the domestic market price of silicone DMC has increased 13 times, with the price rising by more than 7300 yuan / ton, and the total increase after the festival is nearly 34%.

According to the business agency, the following is the DMC price and the start-up of the device of some domestic silicone enterprises (for reference only)

Enterprise name: total capacity of organosilicon, operation of unit, price note

Tax content of purified water of 80thousand tons / year 30200 yuan / ton unit of Luxi Chemical Industry

Inner Mongolia Hengye Cheng 240000 / T sealed plate without reporting the normal operation of the unit net water tax

340000 / T sealed plate of Zhejiang Xin’an chemical industry without reporting the normal operation of the unit net water tax

Hesheng silicon industry 35.58 million tons / year reference 29700-30000 yuan / ton unit stable operation market price

7 floors of the unit of 320000 tons / year of Hubei Xingfa without offer—

Zhejiang Zhongtian 120000 tons / year is temporarily not offered in the parking of the device—

Shandong Jinling 150000 T / a unit is not offered for offer for the time being, and the device is running smoothly—

Downstream, the downstream 107 rubber and raw rubber products of silicone DMC are also rising under the drive of raw materials. At present, the market price of domestic new material 107 rubber has risen to 29000-29800 yuan / T, and the high-end offer of raw rubber has exceeded 30500 yuan / T, and currently, many factories have closed the offer.

2021 capacity of silicone industrial chain increases, and downstream export of DMC increases continuously

1. Tangshan Sanyou annual output 1200 tons hydrogen containing silicone oil project will be put into operation

Tangshan Sanyou annual output 1200 tons “430#######ාාා#ාාා#ාා෗#ා. “430″ hydrogen containing silicone oil expansion unit installation project “is to rebuild and install a new set of equipment on the basis of the original three sets. The main equipment includes reaction kettle, polymerization tank, etc., as well as supporting process pipeline, electrical and other facilities. After the festival, the equipment department shall contact the workshop and construction unit, and take the defensive measures during the epidemic period into the construction state quickly to ensure the construction stability.

The project makes the best use of hydrogen in the monomer by-product, which can increase economic benefits, but also creates certain social benefits. Compared with the first and second production lines, the new production line has high automation, high output and good quality. It also plays a good role in increasing employment position, adjusting the downstream product structure of the company, extending the industrial chain and improving the competitiveness of enterprises in the market.

2. The silicone project of Shihezi base of Hesheng silicon industry in Zhejiang Province will be put into operation

Hesheng silicon industry has an annual total industrial silicon capacity of 730000 tons. After the successful completion of the silicon project in Shihezi base in 2021, the total capacity of silicone monomer will reach 930000 tons. At present, the utilization rate of industrial silicon capacity of the company is about 90%! In addition, Hesheng silicon industry is planning 800000 tons of silicone and 800000 tons of industrial silicon projects in Zhaotong, Yunnan Province. The first phase of 400000 tons of silicone production capacity is expected to be put into operation in mid-2022. Yunnan has abundant resources. Although Yunnan has high electricity price, it has low ore transportation cost, and the finished products are exported to Southeast and southwest demand areas, and the products are closer to the terminal. In the future, Hesheng silicon industry will be more prominent in the leading position in the industry.

2021 the downstream export of silicone DMC is increasing

In the first two months of 2021, China’s import and export value was 5.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.2% over the same period last year (the same below). The total value of February was 2.42 trillion yuan, up 57%. Among them, thousands of export-oriented silicon manufacturing enterprises also kept growing orders.

Double impact of capacity and opportunity: silicone DMC is expected to return to its peak in 2021

At present, the silicone DMC market is reluctant to sell, the factory has low spot inventory, the sealing disk appears more common, more orders are arranged, and the weather is warming gradually, and the demand of downstream products is increasing. Therefore, the data analysts of silicone DMC data of the business agency believe that the trend of silicone DMC market will continue to rise in the short term, and it is expected to “return to the peak time”. The specific market also needs to pay more attention to the changes of raw material end and demand end.