On November 30, on Monday, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions last week, while Hebei and Shandong have been mainly stable since this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market quotation in Shandong is 3000-3100 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of the week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong was stable and rising, some large factories’ prices were raised, the supply performance of large factories had no significant change, the unit was running normally, and the inventory pressure remained at a reasonable level. Due to the limited production in some domestic regions, the operating rate decreased, and the supply brought some support. At present, the ammonia quantity in Shandong remained at the previous level, and the supply pressure was not great. From the downstream, in the current agricultural fertilizer off-season, the terminal does not pick up the goods, and there is no market in many places, which makes the liquid ammonia not rise much.

In other regions, there are changes in stability, while Hebei follows closely the price trend in Shandong. This week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has stabilized, and the outflow of ammonia from Shandong is not as large as expected, and the impact on Hebei is not obvious. Therefore, the prices of manufacturers in Hebei are mostly stable without significant changes. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the Cangzhou unit of a plant in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not big. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand of the region. The liquid ammonia quantity in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, and the current price is between 3050-3150 yuan / ton. Prices in Northeast China rose slightly, mainly affected by the increase in downstream fertilizer procurement, with an overall increase of 50-100 yuan / ton and a range of 3100-3200 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business agency believes that the liquid ammonia market has little change at the end of the month, and the market is weak. Especially at present, the downstream procurement is slowing down, and the domestic ammonia volume is expected to rise slightly in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market may be insufficient in the near future. However, affected by the production restriction, the overall domestic supply level is expected to remain at a relatively reasonable position, so the price will not be too large The downward risk remains stable in the short term.

Trade name: maleic anhydride

Latest price (November 30, 2020): 8700.00 yuan / ton

Analysis points: domestic maleic anhydride market started to improve, but the spot is limited, some enterprises execute the early order. The price of downstream unsaturated resin has declined, the terminal demand performance is general, the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the transaction atmosphere is general, and just need procurement is the main.

Aftermarket forecast: it is expected that the domestic maleic anhydride market will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic raw silk market showed a slight downward trend this week. As of November 27, the average market price was 305000 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.25%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.17%; the price of dried cocoon market was temporarily stable this week, with an average market price of 92000 yuan / ton as of November 27, a year-on-year decrease of 30.04%.

From the upstream cost to the downstream demand, the early market slightly recovered, and the price fluctuated slightly. In the current climate of sluggish terminal consumption, the textile raw material market, including cocoon silk, is in a dilemma. Recently, the whole textile market has been cooling down. On the one hand, the textile industry at this time of year will appear seasonal weakness, on the other hand, the early “double 11″ stock up has overdraft on the later demand. According to China Light and textile city news, the current downstream fabric trade began to reduce orders, stop the situation, textile market orders are basically reduced, most of the affected orders are foreign trade orders.

Business agency analysts believe that, on the whole, the industry chain of cocoon and silk industry lacks bright spots, and it is difficult for the price to rise by a large margin if only relying on the front-end cocoon cost support, and the price rise power foundation is not solid. The actual transaction is difficult to sustain the recovery, the current flat fundamentals can not give a strong boost to the market, the cocoon silk market is expected to show a small fluctuation trend.

This month, the price has slightly improved. The mainstream East China region has increased by 4.17% from 7200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7500 yuan / ton. At present, the factory price in South China is 7500 yuan / ton, that in North China is 7650 yuan / ton, that in Central China is 7700 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is between 7350 yuan / ton and 7550 yuan / ton.

Affected by the accident, the market of ethylene market is heating up rapidly. In the past week, CFR Northeast Asia has reached 970 US dollars / ton. The cost side is strongly supported. According to the current price of ethylene oxide, the profit is thin. According to market participants, the current cogeneration units hope to obtain more profits from their own consumption. Although ethylene glycol destocking is progressing smoothly and polyester operating rate in the downstream increases, the market fluctuates in a narrow range due to the increase of unit operating rate, and the degree of correlation between ethylene oxide price and ethylene oxide price is reduced. The price of polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market rose slightly due to the cost. However, with the cold weather, the scope of snowfall in China has gradually expanded, especially in the northeast region, where transportation and construction are limited and the demand side is weak.

The cost side is strong, and the overall stability is upward. Generally speaking, cost support and resource shortage are the main factors for the rise of ethylene oxide. However, under the background of uncertain demand changes, it remains to be seen how far the stable and upward market of ethylene oxide can go despite many favorable factors.

1、 Price trend

As of November 26, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14000 yuan / ton, up 1.2% month on month and 13.4% lower than that of the previous day, according to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency.

2、 Market analysis

On November 26, the price of refrigerant R22 was temporarily stable. Recently, due to the limited quota at the end of the year, the price of some enterprises increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton due to the small quota at the end of the year. However, the demand side was not strong, the transaction atmosphere was weak, and the bearish mood of the industry was strong. Some enterprises kept a steady watch on the market, and there was also the phenomenon of closing the offer. The short-term market trend was relatively strong supported by favorable support. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 26, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in refrigerant R22 market were around 14000-16000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price was slightly lower.

In terms of raw materials, on November 25, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 7700-8300 yuan / ton. The ex factory prices of domestic manufacturers remained stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was general, and the on-site supply was normal, which was affected by the stable price of fluorite. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry was poor, and the on-site procurement was mainly based on demand. It is expected that the on-site price will remain low in the future.

For chloroform, the market price of chloroform and methane chloride in Shandong Province is going up. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 3150-3250 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform market is about 2500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price will be adjusted in a short period of time. At present, the market is dominated by shock adjustment. The trading situation of the industry is general. The spot supply of the market is stable. The upstream liquid chlorine market is high, which supports the price of methane chloride better. The overall purchasing demand of downstream market is flat, which does not support the market.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, due to the limited quota at the end of the year, the price of R22 has been raised due to the small amount of quota at the end of the year and the slight rise of raw materials. However, the support from the demand side is not strong, the transaction atmosphere is weak, and the bearish mood of the industry is strong. It is expected that the short-term market trend will be relatively strong supported by the favorable conditions.