On November 30, on Monday, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions last week, while Hebei and Shandong have been mainly stable since this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market quotation in Shandong is 3000-3100 yuan / ton.
At the beginning of the week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong was stable and rising, some large factories’ prices were raised, the supply performance of large factories had no significant change, the unit was running normally, and the inventory pressure remained at a reasonable level. Due to the limited production in some domestic regions, the operating rate decreased, and the supply brought some support. At present, the ammonia quantity in Shandong remained at the previous level, and the supply pressure was not great. From the downstream, in the current agricultural fertilizer off-season, the terminal does not pick up the goods, and there is no market in many places, which makes the liquid ammonia not rise much.
In other regions, there are changes in stability, while Hebei follows closely the price trend in Shandong. This week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has stabilized, and the outflow of ammonia from Shandong is not as large as expected, and the impact on Hebei is not obvious. Therefore, the prices of manufacturers in Hebei are mostly stable without significant changes. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the Cangzhou unit of a plant in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not big. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand of the region. The liquid ammonia quantity in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, and the current price is between 3050-3150 yuan / ton. Prices in Northeast China rose slightly, mainly affected by the increase in downstream fertilizer procurement, with an overall increase of 50-100 yuan / ton and a range of 3100-3200 yuan / ton.
In the future, the business agency believes that the liquid ammonia market has little change at the end of the month, and the market is weak. Especially at present, the downstream procurement is slowing down, and the domestic ammonia volume is expected to rise slightly in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market may be insufficient in the near future. However, affected by the production restriction, the overall domestic supply level is expected to remain at a relatively reasonable position, so the price will not be too large The downward risk remains stable in the short term.