The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on July 17 was 33.39, which was flat compared with yesterday, decreased by 67.27% from 102.01 point (2014-01-09), and increased by 11.34% from 29.99 point, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from July 13 to 17 (unit: yuan / ton)

Regional prices rose and fell weekly on the 13th and 17th

East China 3100-3150 3000-3100 – 75

Shandong Province 2950 ～ 3050 2900 ～ 3000 – 50

This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene continued to be stable, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong was weakened by the pressure of delivery. This week, the port inventory rose again, and the main port inventory is about 264000 tons. On the external side, this week’s external shocks declined. On Friday (July 17), South Korea imported 407 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 7.67 US dollars / ton, or 1.85% compared with July 9; and East China’s imports of pure benzene were 415.5 US dollars / ton, down 12.5 US dollars / ton, or 2.92% compared with July 9. There are negative factors in the fundamentals. Recently, the bearish sentiment of hydrobenzene market is strong, and the cost pressure of enterprises is large.

Start up of some hydrogenated benzene units

Enterprise name device status device capacity remarks

Shandong Shengyun Chemical Park 100000 tons

Shandong Derun Chemical Park 150000 tons

Shandong Jinneng Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to restart on July 16

Panjin Ruide parking 200000 tons, planned to restart on July 18

Recently, there are still many overhauls in hydrogenated benzene enterprises, some of which have been shut down for more than three months. The units of Tangshan Baoshun, Panjin Ruide and Jinneng have been shut down, and the restart time is at the end of this month. This week, the start-up of hydrobenzene Unit continued to decline, and the production of hydrobenzene will be affected in the near future.

One week price change of hydrobenzene market in Shandong

Market July 13 July 14 July 15 July 16 July 17

Shandong 2950-3050 2950-3050 2900-3000 2900-3000 2900-3000 2900-3000

This week, the market price in Shandong area fluctuated slightly, with weekly decrease of 50 yuan / ton and negotiation of 2900-3000 yuan / ton. The bidding price of crude benzol in Shandong area will be reduced by about 140 yuan / ton this week, and the current implementation is about 2390-2395 yuan / ton.

The basic support is limited, and the market bearish sentiment is strong. The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises remains. The number of maintenance units is increased compared with the previous period. After the maintenance of the downstream phenol ketone unit, styrene profit has improved in the near future, but it is still at a low level. The downstream demand is slightly improved compared with the previous period, but it is not enough to support the hydrobenzene market.

In the future, the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic pure benzene market may maintain a standstill. Sinopec’s listing price has been stable for more than a month, so it is difficult for pure benzene port pressure to change significantly in the short term. Crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the range. OPEC and its production reduction allies plan to relax the production reduction restrictions in August, with limited upward space for crude oil prices, and fundamental factors affecting the hydrobenzene market. At the end of the month, some units have plans to start operation, and the on-site supply will increase. It is expected that the market will mainly stagnate in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose. On July 13, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1182.5 yuan / ton, and on July 17, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1232.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.23%. On July 16, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 94.31, up 0.59 points compared with yesterday, 39.39% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and 40.99% higher than 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke is rising due to the shortage of resources. On July 17, the price of petroleum coke in Shandong remained stable, and some refineries rose slightly, with an increase range of 30-50 yuan / ton. The start-up in the plant is not high, and the current inventory remains low; the downstream actively replenish, and the refinery mainly holds the price and wait-and-see.

Upstream: on July 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was $40.93/barrel, down $0.27. The price of Brent crude oil futures market fell, with the settlement price of the main contract falling by US $0.42 to US $43.37/barrel, mainly due to OPEC +’s agreement to relax the supply limit of record production reduction, and the continuous surge in the number of cases of the US epidemic, which triggered demand concerns.

Downstream: the downstream glass market has risen steadily, and the recent recovery and increase of glass production capacity have also accelerated. In addition, affected by weather factors such as rainfall in Meiyu season, some production enterprises in some regions have risen slightly. The traditional sales peak season is coming, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders and processing enterprises to prepare goods has also increased. The price of prebaked anode is stable and the downstream market needs to purchase; the price of alumina continues to fall.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list in the 27th week (7.6-7.10) of 2020, with petroleum coke (3.73%), asphalt (3.66%) and gasoline (2.81%). There were 4 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with coke (- 2.76%), WTI crude oil (- 1.34%) and naphtha (- 1.11%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.81%.

3、 Future forecast

The price of petroleum coke in the market is affected by tight supply of resources and strong support from downstream electrolytic aluminum. However, in the later period, the price of petroleum coke has risen to a certain high level, and carbon enterprises have lost profits, and the mood has changed slightly. According to the data, the operating rate of coking units has increased. As of July 16, the start-up rate of China’s local refineries was 47.82%, 0.14 percentage points higher than that of July 9, and the operating rate of Shandong georefining was 51.73%, 0.93% higher than that of July 9. It is predicted that the short-term petroleum coke market may still have a small increase space, and the later stage may tend to be stable operation, which depends on the downstream market demand.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices fluctuated slightly, while the overall price of aluminum fluoride remained stable. According to the data of the business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on July 13 was 8666 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of aluminum fluoride on July 6.

The upstream fluorite market price maintains a high level. In recent years, the domestic fluorite spot supply is normal, and some of the merchants who hold the fluorite are still low. The market reflects that the fluorite spot supply is slightly tight, and the fluorite price remains high. Domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, hydrofluoric acid on-site device operation is stable, hydrofluoric acid market price rose slightly.

In recent years, aluminum fluoride enterprises started to maintain stable operation, and individual aluminum fluoride manufacturers made price adjustment, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market remained stable and to be changed.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of chemical branch of business society believe that: upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market prices remain stable, aluminum fluoride manufacturers are not willing to adjust prices, and it is expected that aluminum fluoride prices will remain stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, as of July 30, the average price of maleic anhydride in China was 6433 yuan / ton (including tax), and the market as a whole remained stable, with a decrease of 0.52% compared with the average price of 6533 yuan / ton in the same period of last month.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on July 10 was 60.60, unchanged with yesterday, down 51.00% from 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and 18.41% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: this week, the domestic maleic anhydride market is still running stably. The solid anhydride in Jiangsu Province is about 5700 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride is about 5600 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shandong area is about 5500 yuan / ton, and the liquid anhydride is about 5300 yuan / ton. The spot supply in the market is still on the low side, which is good for the enterprises to support the price, but there is no new price transaction in the industry.

Industrial chain: affected by the parking of some hydrogenated benzene enterprises and the exploration of pure benzene as raw materials, the hydrobenzene market gradually recovered, and traders began to copy the bottom price. However, with the recovery of market start-up and the behaviors of middlemen, the market upward momentum of hydrobenzene market was insufficient; the downstream resin market was in the off season, the market operating rate was less than 40%, the downstream demand was limited, and the price support for maleic anhydride was insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of business club, the current spot supply of maleic anhydride market is too small, which is difficult to effectively alleviate in a short period of time, and enterprises have a good attitude of supporting prices. A small number of enterprises have raised their prices, and it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will be firm in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, the weekly average quotation of domestic industrial grade formic acid is 1800 yuan / ton, and the overall formic acid market this week remains stable with little market fluctuation.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole remained stable, with saturated inventory and no significant market adjustment. This week, manufacturers and dealers generally maintain the early price without obvious adjustment, and the devices of manufacturers and dealers are normal. It is understood that the price quoted by enterprises is generally maintained at around 1800 yuan / ton. Due to the continuous price reduction of the stock gradually saturated in the previous period, the supply of goods in the market has been eased. Enterprises should give priority to multi-dimensional and stable quotation. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of formic acid is about 1537.5 yuan / ton, and the quotation of mainstream dealers is between 1950-2700 yuan / ton. Zhejiang, Hubei and other places due to high freight costs or source production costs, high prices. As of Friday (July 10), Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1650 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1450 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou Xiangcheng San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1350 yuan / ton.

The liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products continued the general trend and maintained stability, local narrow range adjustment trend, the price of caustic soda was stable and small, the shipping rhythm was fair, the future market was stable, and some manufacturers adjusted their prices. The support of upstream products to formic acid market is fair, while the demand of leather and pesticide industry of downstream products is relatively cold, and there is not much receiving.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data analyst of the business society, the current domestic market price of industrial grade 85% formic acid has gradually stabilized, but the price is still at a low and stable state. The supply of goods in the market is sufficient, the downstream demand is relatively cold, and there is insufficient support for the formic acid market. Most enterprises hold a stable attitude. It is estimated that 85% of the domestic industrial grade formic acid market will be stable in the short term.