In June, the overall LPG civil market rose slightly, and the period was dominated by shocks. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on June 1, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 2750.00 yuan / ton, and the average price on 30 days was 2793.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.58% during the period and the maximum earthquake amplitude was 4.95%.

Specification, mode of transportation, region, date, mainstream price

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China June 30 2450-2650 yuan / ton

Civil gas and motor transportation in East China June 30 2600-2800 yuan / ton

Domestic gas transportation to South China June 30 2310-2480 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong Province June 30, 2600-2680 yuan / ton

Transportation of civil gas to Northeast China by automobile on June 30, 2350-2712 yuan / ton

Civil gas transportation by truck along the river on June 30, 2580-2650 yuan / ton

In the first ten days of June (1-10), the market was dominated. The trend of international crude oil is good. On the 2nd, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil respectively reached the high points in recent three months, and the price of Saudi Aramco CP in June was higher than expected, which brought benefits to the market. Liquefied gas (LPG) was actively pushed up. The domestic gas in Shandong increased by 50-100 yuan / T, and the national market also rose to varying degrees. The downstream mentality is good, the market replenishment is positive, the factory shipment situation is good, the price is firm, rises for three days in a row.

In the middle of June (10-20), the market mainly fell. Affected by seasonal factors, the weather temperature is high, the market demand is limited, the terminal consumption is general, and multi-dimensional rigid demand is maintained. As the price goes up, the downstream breeds a mentality of resistance. With the completion of replenishment, one after another delisted to consume inventory. The market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The atmosphere of market transaction is obviously weakened, and the manufacturer’s ex factory price is loose. Then, under the impact of crude oil slump on November 11, the market lacked favorable support, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry weakened, the pressure of manufacturers to ship goods was greater, and the overall weakness was reduced. In the later period, the market was boosted again by the continuous rise of international crude oil for 3 days, and LPG followed the rise. But this rally was too short-lived, only two days after the rise turned back to the downward channel.

Until late June (20-30), the market first rose and then fell. Due to the approaching of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and the demand for replenishment before the downstream Festival, the market entry was more positive, the market trading atmosphere was better, the manufacturers’ shipment situation improved, and the price rose slightly. However, manufacturers’ inventory has not been fully released, and affected by seasonal factors, manufacturers’ shipment is difficult, and then it goes down again after the festival. In terms of supply, the start-up of manufacturers is relatively stable, and the supply of civil gas has slightly increased compared with last week.

In June, the overall atmosphere of shipment was flat, and most manufacturers were still in a state of imbalance between production and sales. In July, the Saudi Aramco CP was introduced, and the propylene butane increased by US $10 / T, better than expected, which brought obvious support to the market. However, the traditional off-season in July has not passed, and the demand of the terminal market in summer is limited. It is expected that the market will rise first and then fall in August.

1、 Price trend

On July 3, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3617 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, according to business agency data.

On July 2, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3495 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton or 0.29% from the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of July 2, ethylene glycol inventory in the mainstream reservoir areas of East China was about 1350400 tons, an increase of 52400 tons or 4.04% compared with last Thursday, and 41000 tons or 3.13% higher than that of Monday.

In terms of shipment, the average daily delivery of Zhangjiagang main port is about 7200 tons, and that of Taicang two warehouses is about 7100 tons, which is basically the same as last week.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 51%, which is lower than last week. The operating rate of polyester is about 87%, which is the same as last week.

In terms of units, the ethylene glycol plant of Inner Mongolia Yigao Coal Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 120000 tons, has been shut down for maintenance at the end of March, and is now scheduled to restart at the end of July. The annual output of 360000 tons of ethylene glycol plant in Taiwan is planned to be overhauled on July 15, and the overhaul is expected to take one month.

In terms of futures, due to the lack of good news transmission on the periphery, ethylene glycol futures fluctuated at a low level, and the boost was weak.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the continuous development of global public health events, consumption has been greatly reduced, and ethylene glycol imports continue to flow in, resulting in the backlog of port inventory. Although domestic ethylene glycol manufacturers have reduced the start-up load to avoid risks, due to insufficient demand and the commissioning of new units, the downstream can not digest it. In the long run, affected by the global economic downturn, the situation of ethylene glycol accumulation is difficult to improve temporarily, and the price will continue to fluctuate and consolidate.

In June, the trend of domestic liquid ammonia market was full of twists and turns. According to the monitoring of the business agency, since June, for example, the liquid ammonia in Shandong Province has rebounded from the drop and then stabilized. Due to the overhaul of a large plant in Shandong Province at the beginning of the month, a large number of liquid ammonia were shipped in some areas. The manufacturers reduced the price sharply, from 3000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2500 yuan / ton in the first ten days of the month. At the same time, the low-cost source of goods had a crowding out effect on the surrounding areas, implicating the surrounding areas to follow the price reduction, and the prices of the whole northern region dropped significantly. However, with the resumption of production in mid June, the manufacturers consumed a large amount of liquid ammonia, which reduced the pressure on the manufacturers’ inventory and market supply. Therefore, after the middle of June, the price of liquid ammonia rebounded rapidly. At the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia in Northern China was generally 2700-2900 yuan / ton.

In this month, the upstream coal market is not good enough to boost the downstream market. The anthracite lump coal market continues to decline in a weak way. Especially in the middle and late ten days, the output of coal mines in the main production areas increased significantly compared with the previous period, and the price of coal mines in Shanxi Province dropped to 800 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 30-40 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream, in June, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia was still poor, urea also experienced the first rise and then fall. In the middle and late ten days, the market had fallen back to all the previous gains. In addition, monoammonium phosphate was also weak, with a limited increase (0.50%), which is currently in the off-season of fertilizer. Specifically, in the aspect of compound fertilizer, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is generally at 40% this month, and it shows a trend of gradual decline from the middle of the month to the end of the month, and the enterprise operating rate drops to less than 40% at the end of the month. In terms of urea inventory, the enterprise’s inventory increased for two consecutive weeks in the middle and last ten days, and the inventory exceeded 400000 tons in one week at the end of the month. At the end of the month, the inventory of compound fertilizer exceeded 500000 tons, increasing for three consecutive weeks. The pressure of inventory gradually increased, and the market demand became weaker.

In the future, the business community believes that the supply pressure is on the rise, and the operating rate of enterprises is high. Although the favorable agricultural demand in some areas such as northeast China is still continuing, it may continue to weaken in the later stage, and the industrial demand is weak for a long time. It is expected that the liquid ammonia market will remain weak in July, and the price will not be ruled out to fall again.

In June, the domestic light rare earth market prices increased to varying degrees. The prices of praseodymium neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium alloy continued to rise, the light rare earth market recovered, and the domestic heavy rare earth legitimate price fluctuated. According to the rare earth plate index of business society, the rare earth index on June 29 was 346 points, unchanged with yesterday, 65.40% lower than 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 27.68% higher than 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

By the end of the month, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 292000 yuan / ton, up 7.75% from 271000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the price of praseodymium and neodymium alloy was 368000 yuan / ton, up 8.71% from 338500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the price of neodymium oxide was 302000 yuan / ton, up 7.86% in June; the price of metal neodymium was 382000 yuan / ton, up 7.76% in June There are different degrees of increase.

In recent years, with the positive promotion of the construction of new infrastructure projects across the country, the price of rare earth has continued to rise, with obvious bullish mentality of the traders holding goods in the market, and the merchants are reluctant to sell, so the rising sentiment is strong. In addition, with the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the demand of permanent magnet manufacturers for stock increases, the price of PR and nd rare earth is higher, and the market price of light rare earth is still at a low level 。 In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the import of overseas rare earth ores has dropped sharply, and the waste recycling and monazite raw materials have decreased, resulting in the decline of domestic rare earth smelting output. The domestic economic recovery has led to the recovery of the downstream demand for rare earth, supporting the price of rare earth, and the domestic market price of light rare earth continues to rise.

The price of Dy 2O 3 was 1.92 million yuan / ton by the end of June, which was 1.03% lower than the price of 1.94 million yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.89 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.53% in June. In the domestic rare earth collection and storage plan, the proportion of medium and heavy rare earth in the annual output is large, which is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium and heavy rare earth However, it will have a tightening impact on the domestic import supply of medium and heavy rare earth. Once the plan is implemented as scheduled, it will have a greater impact on the supply and demand tightening and price rise of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium. In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth has remained at a high level due to the general market in the market. In addition, with the resumption of production and the recovery of terminal new energy vehicle market, domestic terbium series rare earth supply is very tight, and the domestic terbium series rare earth price keeps rising.

The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the docking and implementation of preferential policies for rare earth industry. According to the notice, the rare earth office entrusted China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and China Rare Earth Industry Association to sort out and summarize the policy documents suitable for the application of rare earth enterprises, and formed a collection of supporting policies for the resumption of work and production of rare earth industry. The favorable policies support the development of rare earth industry. At the same time, Sino US relations are somewhat loose. The key products of rare earth trade between China and the United States are of great significance. The national policy is conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. Recently, the supply of rare earth market is normal, the demand is improving, and the market price of light rare earth is rising.

In recent years, domestic demand for rare earth has increased compared with the previous period, and the supply of medium and heavy rare earth market is still tight. Analysts of business agency predict that the market price of rare earth will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

Taking rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process, which has a large volume in domestic market, as an example, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide has been lowered in this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of titanium dioxide in China was 14166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 13866.67 yuan / ton. The price dropped by 2.12 within the month.

2、 Market analysis

Overall, the titanium dioxide market price in June was weak. Affected by the price reduction in the first half of the month, some prices of titanium dioxide are on the edge of loss, and the orders of distributors and end-users are gradually increasing, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is expected to be reduced. In the second half of the month, with the control of the epidemic situation in various countries, the downstream demand will gradually recover, the trading situation will be improved compared with the previous period, and overseas orders will gradually flow back. Driven by the demand, the price of titanium dioxide will gradually stabilize. At present, the domestic ex factory price of rutile titanium dioxide is 12000-14500 yuan / ton, that of anatase titanium dioxide is 10300-11800 yuan / ton, and that of chlorination titanium dioxide is 15500-20000 yuan / ton.

Ishihara (isk) of Japan announced to increase the price of titanium dioxide by US $200 / T in the Asia Pacific region from July 1, 2020. Panzhihua titanium sea announced that from June 28, 2020, the domestic trade price of titanium dioxide will be increased by 500 yuan / ton, and the foreign trade price will be increased by 80 dollars / ton. It has played a positive role in boosting the domestic price market and has a positive impact on the stability of titanium dioxide market confidence.

In terms of raw materials, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area was stable this month, and the price of some small and medium-sized manufacturers increased under the pressure of cost. At present, the quoted price of 38 grade titanium ore without tax is 760-800 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade small and medium-sized miners, 1170-1230 yuan / ton for 10 grade titanium ore, 1350 yuan / ton for 46 grade 10 ore and 1350-1300 yuan / ton for 47 grade 20 ore. Although the price of titanium dioxide in the downstream continues to be low, due to the increase of raw ore cost, the pressure of middling cost and the shortage of start-up, the price of middling is firm and rigid, and the low price of titanium ore is reduced. The price of imported titanium concentrate is firm, and the quantity of imported titanium concentrate in the market is still decreasing, so the price margin is not large. In the short term, the price of titanium concentrate is mainly firm and rigid.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts from the business club believe: at present, the current market competition is still more intense, the demand for titanium dioxide has increased, foreign trade transactions are gradually restored, and domestic trade channels and end users actively prepare goods. In the short term, the market is low, orders are increasing, demand is improving, manufacturers are willing to support price operation, limited by cost, titanium dioxide continues to decline space is very limited, the actual transaction price is a single discussion.