Data shows that from April to June, the price of natural rubber has fluctuated all the way up. As of June 5, the domestic all latex (Baodao) in East China has increased by 11.58%.

Under the influence of drought, insect disaster, bad market demand caused by special situation, transportation conditions and low rubber price, the new rubber cutting conditions in Yunnan and Hainan are insufficient and the output is very small. Especially in Banna, Yunnan Province, since May 20, the local spot supply of natural rubber is in short supply. All brands of natural rubber such as scr10, meridian tire rubber 9710 and Yunxiang latex are in short supply. The market price is soaring, and the prices of scr10 and 9710 are still high. Up to now, the local spot rubber shortage situation continues. According to the local traders, in the past, the import index of local natural rubber was usually released by the Ministry of Commerce in April. In 2020, due to the special situation, the import index has not been opened up yet. The local old rubber is out of stock, the cutting volume of new rubber is small, the raw rubber is lack, and the natural finished rubber is impossible to talk about. Although the trend of different brands of local rubber prices is slightly different, there is no doubt that the local rubber prices are very strong.

From April to June, the price trend of Yunnan Banna cloud like emulsion

Data shows that the trend of Yunnan Banna cloud like milk from April to June has been fluctuating and rising. Among them, on April 1, the main quotation of Yunnan cloud elephant was about 9300 yuan / ton, and on June 5, the main quotation was 10200 yuan / ton, an increase of about 11.83%.

At present, under the influence of multiple factors such as weather, the new rubber output is small and the new rubber market is delayed again and again, but the downstream demand is less than that of previous years. The existing Tianjiao inventory in Qingdao and Shanghai is still high, and the trend of Tianjiao region is the same. From April to June, it has been surging up

To sum up, a large number of domestic new rubber is now expected to appear in late June. During this period, it mainly depends on how much the improvement of downstream consumption drives the tire enterprises, and pays attention to the rubber import in Southeast Asia, which will be higher in the short term. However, once a large area is cut and the import indicators are lowered, the new rubber volume and inventory increase, then the Tianjiao market will be under pressure rapidly. If this period of time, the shortage of goods in Banna continues, its price will remain very strong.

The acetone market soared in two months

The average price trend of acetone in the national market in the past two months

The positive factors are frequent, from the macro crude oil upward cost pull, to the terminal disinfectant market demand, from the port tension to the manufacturer control, the acetone market rose from 4000 yuan / ton to 12000 yuan / ton in two months, up as much as 200%.

More details:

Business agency: witness history again! Acetone breaking in June 3 (June 4, 2020)

Can acetone rise 150% in two months reappear? (May 29, 2020)

Business agency: good demand for volume control of manufacturers; acetone market pushed up again (May 25, 2020)

Business agency: eight thousand yuan acetone market reappearance in three years (May 18, 2020)

Business agency: surging raw material market, 62% surge in acetone (April 14, 2020)

Average price trend of acetone in East China in recent two months

Continue to impose anti-dumping duties, acetone hit a record high

Details: Ministry of Commerce: continue to impose anti-dumping duties on acetone originating in Japan and other regions

The Ministry of Commerce ruled that if the anti-dumping measures were terminated, the dumping of imported acetone originating in Japan, Singapore, Korea and Taiwan could continue or re occur, and the damage to the Chinese mainland industry might continue or happen again. Chinese Ministry of Commerce has ruled that the dumping of imported acetone from Japan, Singapore, Korea and the Chinese mainland may continue or happen again. According to the provisions of Article 50 of the regulations on anti dumping, the Ministry of Commerce proposes to the Tariff Commission of the State Council to continue to implement the anti-dumping measures according to the investigation results. According to the proposal of the Ministry of Commerce, the Tariff Commission of the State Council made a decision to continue to levy anti-dumping duties on acetone imported from Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan for a period of five years from June 8, 2020.

In the volatile acetone market, the anti-dumping duty continued to be implemented, which pushed the acetone market up again. Now the acetone market is out of reach. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the acetone market has few sources of goods, and a small number of shippers have made astonishing offers. Up to the time of publication, the price in East China is 12200 yuan / ton, and the highest price is 12500-13000 yuan / ton. The national market is all over 12000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the downstream MIBK plant has been shut down and MMA is facing another upward trend, but the company still has a serious loss. Some of the contracted consumption of the downstream isopropanol plants is under great pressure due to the impact of the soaring cost of raw acetone, which is forced to push up again. According to industry insiders, isopropanol is now unsalable overseas, and its high price is gradually replaced by other alcohol killing products, and the rising price will affect the export sales. Under the sharp rise of downstream BPA market, the shutdown and maintenance of enterprises increased, and the plant operation rate decreased.

In the view of the business community, it is outrageous that the market is too high for a single product, and the terminal is in deep loss. At present, more and more terminal factories are shutting down production, unable to digest the high acetone. There is still acetone replenishment in the short-term port. Zhejiang Petrochemical phenol ketone plant is expected to be put into operation in June. The short-term acetone market is still in a high consolidation. With the later acetone supply replenishment, the market is bound to return to rationality.

In May, the domestic methanol market continued to decline after rebounding. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the month is 1657 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the end of the month is 1620 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.26% in the month, with a maximum amplitude of 6.36%. The price is 30.59% lower than that of the same period last year.

In May, the domestic methanol market showed a trend of narrow fluctuation, and the mainland market hit the bottom again in the middle and late ten days. After the labor day, affected by the centralized maintenance of the units in southern Shandong, the price was relatively firm in the first ten days. However, with the new methanol unit in Baofeng, Ningxia put into operation and the restart time of Shenhua Yulin delayed, the market began to decline, and the lowest price in Northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia dropped to 1300 yuan / ton. With the buyer’s bottoming sentiment highlighted, the methanol price has stabilized and rebounded. The fluctuation of the port is limited, and the fluctuation in the month is limited to 70 yuan / ton.

In terms of industrial chain, formaldehyde: this month, the domestic formaldehyde market rose first and then fell. After the May 1st Festival, the main methanol production area in the upper reaches raised the price after the festival and the highway recovery charge, and the freight was increased appropriately. The cost side is rising, and formaldehyde enterprises are running up under this clamp. However, the downstream terminal demand is unsatisfactory, and continues to be depressed, unable to support the rise of formaldehyde. In the middle of the month, an accident occurred in Shijiazhuang area, which was under the control of safety inspection in the province, and some enterprises’ devices were temporarily reduced and then increased. Next, the “two sessions” were held in Beijing. Under the premise of ensuring the safety of production, the formaldehyde plant of all enterprises in the country started smoothly and orderly. The center of gravity of the upstream raw materials shifts downward, the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises decreases with it, and the theoretical profit of enterprises is acceptable. However, the transformation of downstream wood board factories is imminent, and the market demand for formaldehyde is limited, which makes it difficult for formaldehyde enterprises to ship.

Acetic acid: in May, the domestic acetic acid market rose to a high point, and then it made a rational correction. During the May 1st holiday of the beginning of the month, the carbon monoxide problem of the suppliers in Henan Province reduced the load operation, and the spot market supply continued to intensify. Spot manufacturers pushed up the offer, driving the market transaction price to continue to rise slightly. Subsequently, Shanghai Huayi’s 500000 ton acetic acid plant was shut down on May 9 due to problems in the store, aggravating the market supply tension and driving the price of acetic acid to be high and firm. Subsequently, affected by the shortage of acetic acid stock supply of Hebei Jiantao, resulting in the supply gap in the North China market, the local suppliers continued to raise the offer, driving the high market in North China to rise again, and the high market was strong and optimistic. In the middle of the month, Celanese acetic acid plant returned to normal operation, alleviating the situation of market supply exceeding demand, and the acetic acid market remained strong. Near the end of the month, acetic acid market opened a new round of decline.

Dimethyl ether: in May, the overall price of domestic dimethyl ether was low, and at the end of the month, the price of dimethyl ether broke through the historical low. At the beginning of the month, due to the impact of domestic holidays, most of the liquefied gas enterprises chose to drain the inventory and the price of crude oil fell, which brought negative effects on the delivery of dimethyl ether. The price of dimethyl ether continued to decrease. At this time, the price of raw methanol was on the high side, resulting in the non profit of some DME enterprises, resulting in the situation of equipment maintenance of some enterprises. The ease of market supply brought a slight increase in the price, but the good situation was not good Long term, with the increasingly hot weather, the terminal liquefied gas enters into the traditional off-season, and the digestion is slow, which has a negative impact on the DME market, resulting in the continuous decline in the price of DME.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 47 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 31 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were ethylene (69.89%), trichloromethane (67.86%) and crude benzene (24.52%). There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

At present, the port’s methanol inventory is still at a high level, and the shortage of storage capacity is prominent. In this context, it is difficult for the domestic methanol market to open an upward channel. However, when it falls to the heart price of some businesses, the bottom reading sentiment drives the market to rebound slightly. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market in June was mainly volatile, which was difficult to fluctuate significantly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 1 was 8533 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on May 31 was 9916 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 16.21% this month.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the supply of caprolactam in China is tight this month, and there are few spot products. The enterprise is active in price hike. In addition, the price of caprolactam is rising due to the rising price of raw materials. The price began to rise sharply in the first ten days of May, and gradually stabilized from the middle of May to the end of the month. As of the end of the month, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9400 yuan / ton, cash was delivered, and the manufacturer’s capacity was 300000 tons. The actual transaction was negotiable. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 10200 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 10200 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 10200 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industrial chain: raw material pure benzene rose 19.21% this month. *** Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene five times this month, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. But at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price.

*** There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that this month, due to cost hikes, caprolactam spot supply is tight, leading to price increases. In the later stage, if the cost is stable and the supply increases, the pressure on suppliers will increase. It depends on the follow-up of downstream polymerization plants. It is expected that caprolactam market will mainly be sorted and operated in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

The crude benzene commodity index at May 31 was 43.87, unchanged from yesterday, 66.72% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 43.65% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

In May 2020, crude benzene market rose in shock. The factory price in North China was 2250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 2801.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 24.52%.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in May 2020

Price increase after date increase unit: yuan / ton

May 6, 3000200 yuan / ton

May 9, 3150, 150 yuan / ton

May 18, 3250100 yuan / ton

May 21, 3350, 100 yuan / ton

May 27, 3500, 150 yuan / ton

In May 2020, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene for five times, with a cumulative increase of 700 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, Sinopec had implemented 3500 yuan / ton of pure benzene. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. However, at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price; in May, the external market of pure benzene rose sharply, and the import of pure benzene in South Korea rose by 74.33 USD / ton, or 22.96%; the import of pure benzene in East China rose by 66 USD / ton, or 19.35%

In May, international oil prices were generally good, oil producing countries continued to push forward production reduction activities, and the demand for crude oil and refined oil rose to a certain extent. However, the market is still in a state of oscillation, and the uncertainty of trade relations affects the oil price. Compared with April 30, Brent oil price increased by 14.71 USD / barrel, or 74.78%; WTI oil price increased by 13.99 USD / barrel, or 64.03%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 32.385 USD / barrel, or 48.51%; WTI oil price decreased by 24.93 USD / barrel, or 41.02%.

5.1 after the holiday, the bidding price of crude benzol has been greatly increased. At the beginning of the month, the crude oil has gone up, the bulk commodity has gone up as a whole, and the price of pure benzene has gone up, which is good for the crude benzol Market. The price adjustment of crude benzol bidding on April 30 before the holiday was shelved for various reasons, and after the holiday, the bidding price has been greatly increased due to the favorable fundamentals. The following downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have high cost pressure, high crude benzene inventory and weak purchasing interest, which have double effects on crude benzene entering the high consolidation period, and the market is stable. In recent years, some coking enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi have been limited in starting operation and the operating rate has been reduced, but the crude benzene supply has not been greatly affected, the social inventory is relatively sufficient, the enthusiasm of traders to enter the market is relatively low, the market is slightly cold, although the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has slightly increased, the overall operating rate is still at a low level, and the demand for crude benzene is limited. As of the 29th, the mainstream price of crude benzene in Shandong was 2800 yuan / ton, which was increased by 600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

The price of styrene in the downstream product market in Shandong Province was 5100 yuan / ton on May 1, and 5416.67 yuan / ton on May 29, up 6.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 19 to 24, with a price of 5500 yuan / ton. At present, the rise of styrene is mainly affected by crude oil, and the actual spot shipments are relatively small. Aniline: the price of aniline was 4800 yuan / ton on May 1, 4466.67 yuan / ton on May 29, down 6.94% this month. Aniline fell twice this month, while the rest remained stable. The MDI and auxiliary operating rate in the downstream of aniline are still low, and the demand for aniline is insufficient.

The aftermarket business community believes that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC oil producing countries are considering extending the production reduction period to the end of 2020. OPEC will hold another meeting on June 10 to continue to pay attention to the production reduction meeting. And oil price is not only affected by supply and demand, but also by economic constraints. Uncertainty in trade relations could trigger oil price shocks. Crude benzene inventory is high in the near future, the demand for downstream hydrogenated benzene is general, lack of demand support, crude benzene price is mainly high consolidation, follow-up still need to focus on the trend of crude oil and pure benzene.