1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the domestic market price of isomeric xylene fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3830 yuan / ton, down 12.36% month on week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Products: The overseas epidemic continues to spread, worrying about the shrinking demand for crude oil due to the economic recession, and adding OPEC + production increase expectations. Affected by this, the price of international crude oil fell sharply this week, as well as the price of xylene in the South Korean market, the main source of imports. Although domestic enterprises gradually enter the resumption period and the market demand gradually improves, the price of domestic isomeric xylene still follows the decline. At present, in East China The main price is about 4000 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price fell sharply at the beginning of this week and maintained a wide and volatile trend. As of Friday, Brent futures fell by 17.30%, Brent futures by 14.92%, WTI futures by 23.78% and Dubai futures by 8.30%.

Downstream, in PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 5500 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 514 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 532 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will gradually stabilize and fluctuate next week. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 3520 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 467 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA prices will remain weak next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s offer of ortho benzene fell, with the price at 4600 yuan / ton. The external price of ortho benzene is about 520 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea. It is expected that ortho benzene will gradually stabilize next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement next week, worries about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption of work. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will gradually stabilize next week, adding that domestic enterprises will gradually enter the resumption period, and market demand will gradually improve. It is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will stabilize and fluctuate next week. However, in the environment of high inventory of xylene industry and unsmooth industrial chain recovery, it is not optimistic to expect the rebound range.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of March 23, based on the quotations of several sample enterprises, at present, the average ex factory price of the domestic butanone market is about 7000-7400 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: last week, the butanone market was weak and fell. At present, the domestic butanone market is still weak and dominated. The transaction remains cold. There are not many real orders. The industry is bearish. The factory inventory is further accumulated. The traders’ quotation is expected to continue to fall. At present, the market in East China is temporarily stable. The factory quotation of Shandong Dongming pear chemical butanone is 7400 yuan / ton (purified water) ）, the price is the same as last weekend; North China is in weak operation, and the market reference offer is around 7050-7300 yuan / ton; South China’s butanone market is down, and the current reference offer is around 7000-7200 yuan / ton; Ningbo’s butanone market is down, and the reference offer is around 7200-7400 yuan / ton; Jiangsu’s butanone market is down, and the market reference price is around 7100-7250 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: affected by the decline of international crude oil, the civil market of liquefied gas followed the decline trend. Last week, the decline started to widen. On March 15, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3466.67 yuan / ton, and on March 19, the average price was 2750 yuan / ton. On March 19, the daily decline was as high as 10.33%, and the weekly price fell by 20.67%, 29.97% lower than the same period last year. Most of the civil gas market in Shandong fell below the 3000 yuan mark, and most of the civil gas market in other parts of the country was on the edge of 3000 yuan. At present, the market supply has increased compared with the previous stage, but the load reduction production is more, the terminal market is not fully opened, and the demand is limited, and the market is still in a situation of supply exceeding demand. The downstream market sentiment is not high, and the attitude of “buying up, not buying down” is more wait-and-see. The manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, the inventory pressure is large, and the price drops broadly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business association, at present, with the crude oil market plummeting, the raw materials in the upstream of butanone are at a low level, and it is expected that the weak trend of the recent butanone market will not change.

1、 Price data

Trend chart of average price of domestic 93# gasoline distribution

Trend chart of domestic 0 × diesel distribution average price

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel fell sharply this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 5202 yuan / ton, down 9.99% compared with that of last week; the price of domestic diesel was 5389 yuan / ton, down 8.29% compared with that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: crude oil futures prices continue to fall sharply, the product oil market is passive, the demand brought by the resumption of domestic enterprises has no obvious boosting effect, and the product oil market price is dragged down by crude oil prices.

Industrial chain: since the OPEC + conference, Saudi Arabia has been releasing the news of a substantial increase in production, and Russia has actively responded to the war to increase production. Although U.S. President trump said that he would intervene in the oil price dispute between Saudi Arabia and Russia at the right time, and the international oil price rebounded in retaliation, as of 15:00 on the 20th, WTI crude oil price was 27.5 US dollars / barrel, and WTI crude oil futures still fell 16%.

Market: at 24:00 on the 17th, the price of domestic gas and diesel oil dropped by 1015 yuan and 975 yuan per ton respectively, the biggest drop in a decade, and fell to the floor price. Although the domestic situation has further improved, the demand for gasoline and diesel has gradually increased, and the demand just increased, but the drop in crude oil has dragged down, and the intermediate traders and downstream customers mainly spend more time waiting, while the purchase and stock up operations have decreased. In the context of the sharp decline in crude oil, the price of domestic refined oil market is mainly declining.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products of business association, believes that: Although crude oil rebounds substantially, global crude oil demand is still shrinking, and the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has no turning point at present, and the market of refined oil is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and it is expected that the market price of refined oil will maintain a low operation in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current price of activated carbon is 11183 yuan / ton, and the price is stable.

Products: the price of domestic activated carbon is stable but weak. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the price of domestic activated carbon is mainly to maintain stability, with individual price adjustment, and the market atmosphere is still cold.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the single order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy promotes the activated carbon market. The downstream factories purchase goods according to the demand, and the market transaction is light.

Forecast: due to the impact of logistics, the supply of activated carbon is cold, and it is expected that the short-term market of activated carbon will be dominated by weak operation.

On March 16, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, falling below $30 per barrel again, with the main contract at 28.70 yuan / barrel, down $3.03 (- 9.55%). Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract at $31.69/barrel, down $3.75 (- 10.58%). The deterioration of the global epidemic in recent days has intensified people’s blockade measures against the government to curb the spread of the epidemic, which may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, and then aggravate the general concerns of market people about the global economic recession. On Monday, Saudi Arabia reiterated its production increase plan with a clear attitude, which made the market worse.

On the macro level, on Monday, the global stock market was in a state of mourning. Following the sharp fall of the Asian and European stock markets, the US stock market opened sharply lower. In a few minutes, the S & P 500 index fell below 7%, triggering the third circuit breaker this month. After the resumption of trading, the US stock market fell further rapidly. The decline of the three major stock indexes was once more than 10%, and the Dow index fell more than 12%. The increased risk of the US economic recession has triggered a general bearish atmosphere in the market. Some market participants predict that the US economy will grow by 0.4% in 2020, lower than the previous growth estimate of 1.2%. The trampling down of risk assets will naturally bear the brunt of the crude oil market.

At present, the main negative crude oil factor in the market is still the spread and deterioration of the epidemic. Up to now, the coronavirus epidemic has caused at least 174000 people to be infected, about 6700 people died, and the global economy has fallen into a depression. At present, especially in Europe and the United States, the epidemic situation has expanded. More and more countries have taken blockade measures, which has severely hit the fields of aviation, transportation, etc., and the demand for crude oil is expected to drop significantly Wen, especially now, has caused oil prices to fall by 50% since the beginning of the year. As the epidemic has disrupted business activities, travel and daily life, many forecasting agencies have also lowered their forecasts for crude oil demand, and the current forecast indicators have been continuously restored.

At present, the risk of the supply side is also further negative for oil prices. Saudi Arabia National Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) reiterated on Monday that it plans to increase production to a record level to occupy a larger share of the global oil market. Saudi Arabia has a clear attitude to increase production. Moreover, according to relevant consumption, the technical meeting of OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries planned to be held in Vienna on Wednesday has been cancelled. Saudi Arabia and Russia has not achieved further effective communication, which may lead to a huge increase in supply of Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries, bringing a huge surplus to the global crude oil market. As a result, the pace of crude oil downward is intensified.

According to the business club, at present, the crude oil market is suffering from bad news, and both the supply side and the demand side tend to suffer from bad oil prices. The risk of global financial market is increasing, and the price of risk assets is declining. At present, many countries around the world have launched monetary easing policies, especially the interest rate of the Federal Reserve has dropped to a super level of 0-0.25, and there is no room for further easing in the later stage, which has defeated market confidence As the marginal benefit decreases, the role of interest rate reduction becomes smaller and smaller; moreover, due to the resonance effect of Saudi Arabia’s production increase and the expected decline in demand brought by the epidemic, it is expected that the medium and short-term crude oil will still hover at a low level, which does not exclude the possibility of further exploration.