1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of bulk data of business association, due to the tension between supply and demand, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. As of May 12, the quotation in Henan region was about 2350-2450 yuan / ton; in Shandong region, it was about 2450-2560 yuan / ton; in Hebei region, it was about 2550-2600 yuan / ton; in Western Shaanxi region, it was about 2230 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu region, it was about 2500-2650 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang region, it was about 2500-2650 yuan / ton The price is about 2600-2750 yuan / ton; the price for delivery in South China is about 2450-2550 yuan / ton, which is 3.92% higher than that in early May.
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2、 Cause analysis
Products: the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise, the spot market supply was tight, and the enterprise inventory fell to a low level. Affected by the centralized maintenance of enterprises, the main manufacturers in the market are short of supplies. Among them, Shaanxi Yanchang 300000 t / a plant will be overhauled on May 6 for about 30 days, Hebei Jiantao 500000 T / a plant will be overhauled on May 10 for about 20 days, Shanghai Huayi 500000 t acetic acid plant will be shut down for a short time, and the whole market will start at about 50%, which will aggravate the supply shortage. At present, the enterprise about how long the shipment, some manufacturers do not offer, the market transaction price continued to rise.
Industry chain: in the upstream, the domestic methanol price is slightly firm, the market device maintenance is increased, but the re production device is also increased. In addition, the port arrival is expected to be more, and the price is expected to decline in the later period, at present, about 1727 yuan / ton. The domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries are stable, with good cost support, flat demand in the downstream market, and obvious shipping intention of the enterprise Before PTA, there are not many expected devices for maintenance, the starting load and inventory remain high, and it is expected that the future market will be weak.
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International: affected by the epidemic situation, the international acetic acid market is weak. At present, the acetic acid Market in North America is about 465 US dollars / ton; the price in Europe is about 550 euros / ton; the supply and demand in Asia are weak, and the price is about 270-330 US dollars / ton;.
3、 Future forecast
According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, as the enterprise enters the period of centralized maintenance in May, the spot supply in the market is tight, and the gap in the supply end is hard to make up effectively in a short period of time. The enterprise has a strong mentality of pushing up. Although the purchasing performance in the downstream market is more active, it has a certain touch on the high price of acetic acid. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be strong in a short period of time, but the increase will be limited.
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