I. price trend

The domestic toluene market continued to recover this week, down about 1.9% due to weaker downstream demand, shrinking transaction volume and increased port inventory, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: affected by the weakening downstream demand, shrinking transaction volume and increasing port inventory, the domestic toluene market continued to pull back this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5850-5900 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume continued to shrink and the port inventory surged to about 38000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil prices rebounded steadily this week, with Brent up 3.05%, Brent futures up 3.24%, WTI futures up 4.38% and Dubai futures up 2.18%.

In the downstream, TDI, the market is weak and volatile, and the transaction is not prosperous. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 12700-12800 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 13000 yuan / ton. In PX market, the trend of domestic PX price is stable temporarily, and the price of external market is rising. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain about 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

 
III. future forecast

Xylene analysts of business and Chemical Bureau said: next week, we will continue to focus on the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak outlook of global economic indicators. Due to the expected arrival of large quantities of toluene at the end of the month, traders are cautious at present. On the whole, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate and adjust next week.

On October 24, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 24th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 23, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 765-767 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 785-787 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The rise of external market price has a certain positive impact on the domestic PX market price, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market rose on October 23 to $55.97/barrel, or $1.49, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.17/barrel, or $1.47. EIA crude oil inventory fell by 1.699 million barrels in the week to October 18, with an expected increase of 2.2232 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 9.281 million barrels. After the data was released, WTI crude oil rose to 1.1%, breaking 55 USD / barrel. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 22nd day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 89.7%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 89%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA market, the transaction atmosphere is general, the buying is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On October 23, the PX commodity index was 54.40, which was the same as yesterday, 46.88% lower than 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 19.43% higher than 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 23rd, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. Due to the new plant being put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 22, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was stable. The closing price was 761-763 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 781-783 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic products needed to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price had a certain negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend was temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market rose on October 22, to $54.16/barrel, or $0.85, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $59.70/barrel, or $0.74. Sources from the oil production club said that OPEC and its allies will consider whether to further cut crude oil supply at a meeting in December due to concerns about weak demand growth in 2020. According to sources, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto “dominant” country, wants to work first to comply with the production reduction agreement signed by the organization with Russia and other non member countries (known as OPEC + alliance), and then plan to further reduce crude oil production on this basis. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 22nd day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 89.7%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 89%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA market, the transaction atmosphere is general, the buying is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

I. price trend of acrylic acid:

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average price of acrylic acid as of October 21 was 7533.33 yuan / ton. The acrylic acid market was dominated by maintaining stable operation, and the quotation of some enterprises was lowered, which was 2.16% lower than that of last Friday (October 18). The mainstream quotation of domestic acrylic acid on October 21 was 7200-7900 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: acrylic acid market fell on the 21st, with a cold trading atmosphere. On the 21st, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. was temporarily stable, with 8200 yuan / ton of puic acid and 8850 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price was discussed in a single way. The price of acrylic acid of Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. was 7500 yuan / ton of puic acid and 9400 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price was discussed in a single way. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua Chemical Petrochemical Co., Ltd. remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is stable. 7500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong fell slightly on the 21st. At the beginning of October, it was the National Day holiday. Due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and operation, the price of propylene remained stable during the holiday, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of enterprises rose. On the 12th, the prices stabilized. On the 13th, 14th and 15th, they all rose slightly. On the 16th, they were stable. On the 17th, most of the enterprises began to decline. On the weekend, they declined significantly. On the 21st, some enterprises still fell. The current market turnover was about 7200-7550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 7200 yuan / ton. Downstream acrylic acid operators are not highly involved in the market, and they are more cautious to wait and see.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on October 21, 2019, among which the top three commodities are hydrogen peroxide (3.62%), epichlorohydrin (3.37%) and calcium carbide (2.04%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are nitric acid (- 7.94%), hydrochloric acid (- 7.41%), aluminum fluoride (- 4.00%). The 21 day average rose or fell by – 0.46%.

3. Future forecast:

Acrylic analysts of the business association believe that the raw material propylene continues to decline and the cost side is weak. Restricted by weak market demand, the downstream market entry is negative, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market will be weak and stable in the short term.

On October 21, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 21st, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of the 600000 ton new plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of the petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of the petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of the aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, the domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 18, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 6 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 767-769 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 787-789 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is stable temporarily.

On October 18, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell to US $53.78/barrel, or US $0.15. Brent crude oil futures price fell to US $59.42/barrel, or US $0.49. Measured by total domestic delivery, domestic oil demand in the United States was 20.8 million barrels / day, the highest level in September. 3.2% less than August, but 3.5% more than September 2018. As of September, the total oil demand is 20.5 million barrels per day, up 0.3% year-on-year, the highest level since 2007. The crude oil price has declined slightly, which has limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and the domestic p-xylene price trend is stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 5000-5100 yuan / ton. As of the 18th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 87.3%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 89.5%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, which are affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.