On September 23, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 70.07, up 0.24 points from yesterday, down 41.67% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 44.71% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to rise. The market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China is rising. The downstream factories are just in need of purchasing. Inventory of factories is still under pressure and high-end transactions are blocked. However, the orders on the market are higher than before, and the market price of phthalic anhydride keeps rising. In East China, the mainstream of neighbouring-law supply negotiations is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, naphthalene-law supply negotiations is 6800-6900 yuan/ton; in North China, the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 7100-7200 yuan/ton, the market price keeps rising, some manufacturers increase the ex-factory price, downstream start-up is not high, purchasing on demand is dominant, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride is strong. The plant operates stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride keeps rising.

The price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6700 yuan/ton recently. Due to the overhaul of domestic phthalic anhydride factories, the supply of goods on site is tight, the price of phthalic anhydride keeps high, the import market of phthalic anhydride in port area is rising, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in port is good, the stock of port is declining sharply, the quotation of phthalic outside Price is based on negotiation. Recently, domestic overhaul facilities for phthalic anhydride have increased in the field. The supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is very tight. Supported by the price of phthalic anhydride in the upstream raw material, the market price of phthalic anhydride has continued to rise. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP price is higher, DOP downstream demand is normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility is higher, DOP market mainstream transaction price 8050-8250 yuan/ton, downstream price has risen, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a higher trend in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. The average market price of East China during the week to the weekend is about 1740 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with last week, and 18.05% lower than that of last year. The light soda commodity index on September 20 was 89.23, which was the same as yesterday. It was 24.29% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 41.30% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation, the market was light and stable, and the trading atmosphere was mild. At present, the domestic mainstream light alkali factory price was 1650-1770 yuan/ton; the domestic heavy alkali mainstream terminal price was 1750-1850 yuan/ton. This week, the heavy alkali market did not change much, the manufacturers’shipment situation was relatively smooth, and the market stock was bullish. It is anticipated that manufacturers will implement more end-of-month pricing.

Industry chain: In the downstream area, the price of sodium pyrosulfite has been stable this week, the overall market performance is general, the raw material cost has been weakly adjusted, the upstream and downstream trade entities are cautious in buying and selling, the downstream trade entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite may continue to operate at a low level.

This week, downstream glass continued last week’s trend, rising steadily and moderately. After the G12 summit round table of glass industry, some enterprises in North China and East China began to announce the plan of increase, but the implementation still needs to be implemented. The production and marketing of central and southern China are basically balanced, and the short-term market is mainly stable. From the perspective of sub regions, the situation of north-south differentiation continues. The market as a whole maintained a steady and moderate upward trend.

Industry: This week, the domestic soda market is running smoothly, the output of soda manufacturers has increased, the overall market turnover is mild, more active order delivery is the main, the current delivery pressure is not large, price transaction is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that: this week, the domestic light alkali market is running steadily, the supply of enterprises is relatively stable, downstream demand is weak, the enthusiasm of end users is not high, stable price mentality is strong. It is expected that the consolidation of the soda market will be the main trend in the short term, and the demand of the downstream market will be taken into account.

Price trends:

The domestic caustic soda market is still in a strong price-raising atmosphere, and manufacturers in North China continue to raise their ex-factory quotations. As for liquid chlorine, the market price in North China is still relatively high, and the market is mostly stable for the time being. According to the monitoring data of business associations, affected by the low inventory, the caustic soda market rose this week. Business associations monitored the price of Shandong as a whole. So far, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was 782 yuan/ton, up 9.03% in a week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The market price of caustic soda in Shandong continues to rise. 32% of the turnover of ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is more than 830 yuan/ton. The main reason for this price rise is the impact of low inventory. At present, the National Day is approaching, the transportation policy of liquid chlorine in various regions is still unclear, and manufacturers have more inquiries for stock. At present, part of Shandong geodetic plant restoration, Jinmao Aluminum plant has been shut down for three months, the recovery date is not yet clear; Hebei Jiheng overhaul completed on September 1-7, Jiangsu Anbang and Wenwen plant production reduction.

Industry chain: At present, the market of liquid chlorine is stable. The transaction price in Shandong is about 550 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is about 600 yuan/ton, and in North China is basically stable. The quotation of alumina is stable. At present, the quotation of alumina in Shandong is 2600 yuan/ton, that of alumina in Shanxi and Henan is 2580-2620 yuan/ton, and that of Guizhou is about 600 yuan/ton. 2500 yuan per ton, alumina manufacturers are apparently reluctant to sell, and the supply of alumina will rise in the later period. The pressure of price rise is greater, and short-term shocks are mainly stable.

Business analysts believe that the price of liquor-alkali market in North China continues to rise, the market performance in East China and Henan is relatively good, while the domestic liquor-chlorine market mostly maintains a steady trend. 32% ionic membrane alkali in Shandong area 830-850 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, on September 17, PET water bottle manufacturers quoted 7487.5 yuan/ton, which was 4.17% higher than the 16-day price of 7187.5 yuan/ton, and 33.85% lower than the same period last year.

On September 17, the PET commodity index was 56.30, up 2.26 points from yesterday, down 45.74% from the peak of 103.76 points in the cycle (2011-09-22), and up 17.93% from the low of 47.74 points on January 25, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Cause Analysis

Products: On September 14, two refineries in Saudi Arabia and the United States were attacked by drones, which affected Saudi oil production of 5.7 million barrels per day, and the disruption of Saudi supply caused oil prices to soar. Upstream products PTA and ethylene glycol market boosted, PET market prices have risen. At present, the polyester plant starts to maintain a high level, but the current market demand is limited, supply exceeds demand, driven by strong raw material end, the downstream follow-up is general, market turnover is flat, mostly wait-and-see, just need to purchase. As of September 17, the main quotation range of PET water bottle manufacturers is 7350-7550 yuan/ton, which is generally increased by 250 yuan/ton-300 yuan/ton.

Material aspect: PTA supply is sufficient at present, and there are plans to add new units, the overall start-up is high, inventory is still under pressure. Ethylene glycol plant start-up rate declined, port inventory declined, coupled with the Saudi attack led to the reduction of ethylene glycol production, downstream polyester demand increased steadily, the overall supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol improved, and domestic ethylene glycol enterprises increased.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 8 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices on September 17, 2019. The top three commodities are PET (4.17%), PC (1.93%) and LLDPE (1.79%). There are two kinds of goods falling in the ring-to-ring ratio, PS (-0.84%) and PA66 (-0.42%) respectively. The average daily rise and fall was 0.69%.

3. Future Market Forecast

PET analysts believe that, boosted by crude oil, cost-side support is good, the market of PET is expected to continue to rise in the short term, but cautious terminal demand, a strong downstream wait-and-see atmosphere, and the dynamics of crude oil market and other factors, the rise is not sustainable.

On September 16, WTI crude oil futures rose sharply to $62.90 per barrel, an increase of $8.05. Brent crude oil futures rose sharply to $69.02 per barrel, an increase of $8.8. In particular, Brent crude oil, which opened on September 16, rose rapidly by more than 10%, surging by nearly 19% in the session, its highest level in nearly four months. Why is the international crude oil market so dynamic? During the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in China, a news about the attack on the facilities of Saudi Arabia’s Amy Oil Company became the biggest news shaking the crude oil market, and also the biggest black swan flying out of the market at present.

On September 14, Beijing time, two Saudi Ami factories were attacked, causing a temporary disruption of Saudi production capacity of about 5.7 million barrels per day, which is about 5% of current global crude oil production. It is rare for so many crude oil production capacity to be interrupted in the short term. It is reported that the oil supply disruption in Saudi Arabia is the most serious in history, surpassing the oil supply disruption in Kuwait and Iraq in August 1990 and the loss of Iranian oil production during the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

In the latest news, Saudi officials are considering postponing the Saudi Arabian Amy IPO and seeking to assess the losses before changing the Saudi Amy IPO plan. Saudi Arabia’s Amy Oil Company has asked local and international contractors to assess the damage to two key oil facilities caused by the attack, which is expected to take at least a few weeks for partial recovery. Oil distribution and U.S. oil are rising again. As of September 16, WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed up 12.52%, the biggest one-day gain in more than 10 years. Brent crude oil futures closed up 12.79%, the biggest one-day gain in nearly 30 years.

How does the future market of crude oil operate?

Some analysts said the surge may be just the beginning, given that Saudi oil supply disruption could last for months. Sandy Fielden, research director at Morningstar, said Brent crude oil could rise to $80 a barrel tomorrow and WTI crude oil to $75 a barrel tomorrow, but that would depend on the latest progress on resumption of production announced by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Situation.

As far as further information is concerned, Yemen’s Hussein armed forces said on the 16th that the oil facilities attacked in Saudi Arabia were still the targets of the armed forces: Yehaia Saliah, spokesman for the Hussein armed forces, issued a statement on the same day saying that “they may be attacked again at any time”, which further exacerbated the worrying atmosphere of the market, in this regard. In the near future, the market is still multi-party.

Business analyst Xue Jinlei believes that, fundamentally, in the short term, the market is disturbed by news and emergency plans are being launched. Saudi officials say that Saudi Arabia and the United States will make up for this loss through oil inventories, which can restore 2 million barrels per day of crude oil production, and the market’s concerns about the supply gap have slowed down. In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy announced the release of 9.98 million barrels of strategic crude oil stocks. Russia’s Ministry of Energy said it had sufficient commercial crude oil reserves to fill the gap caused by Saudi Arabia. Two major oil producers have expressed their views, which further alleviated market concerns. Therefore, the recent oil boom may have cooled down, but there are still uncertainties about oil prices in the future before the full recovery of Saudi Arabia’s Amy plant and the relief of the crisis, and it is not excluded that oil prices will continue to rise due to geographic premiums.