I. price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the recent methane chloride Market in Shandong continues to rise, including the current average price of dichloromethane in Shandong is 2900 yuan / ton, up 7.01% from November 1, and the current average price of trichloromethane is 2150 yuan / ton, up 13.16% from November 1.

II. Cause analysis

Product reason: affected by the negative impact of enterprise maintenance, the spot supply of methane chloride in Shandong market has been greatly tightened. Under the situation of just stable demand, the price of methane chloride continues to rise. At present, the industry has a good mentality and strong intention to hold up the price. In terms of enterprise maintenance, Shandong Dongyue 280000 tons / year plant maintenance to the middle of November, Shandong Jinling reduced the load, Luxi Chemical started 60% and executed more foreign trade orders. At present, the quotation of dichloromethane in Shandong is 2900 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform is 2120 yuan / ton; the quotation of dichloromethane in Jiangsu is 3750 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform is 3800 yuan / ton; the quotation of Liwen dichloromethane in Jiangxi is 3000 yuan / ton, and that of chloroform is 2850 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, natural gas prices are surging and falling, the terminal market acceptance capacity is limited, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, and the pressure is downward. At present, it is about 3840 yuan / ton; due to the poor demand in the downstream and limited, the methanol market is weak, at present, it is about 2150 yuan / ton; affected by the inspection and repair, the supply in the industry is tight, and the price is firm. At present, the enterprise reports about 700-800 yuan / ton more. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market continues to be weak, and the terminal market demand is flat, which is expected to remain weak in the short term; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be stable, which is good for the price support of methane chloride.

Industry:

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%). There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%).

III. future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, Luxi Chemical has gradually completed the external orders, and now it has been delivered normally. Shandong Jinling plans to overhaul around the middle of November to the end of the month. The spot supply of methane chloride in Shandong is still tight, and the price of methane chloride is expected to be high and firm in the short term when the demand is just stable.

I. price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply in October. As of October 31, the average price of acetic anhydride quoted by enterprises was 5375.00 yuan / ton, down 612.50 yuan / ton or 10.23% compared with 5987.50 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the month (October 1), and down 30.94% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In October, the price of acetic acid, the raw material of acetic anhydride, fell sharply, while the price of methanol fell sharply. The demand for acetic anhydride is poor, the operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers is maintained, the supply of acetic anhydride is stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, customers purchase on demand, the overall market of acetic anhydride is more negative than positive, and the market of acetic anhydride is under great pressure.

Industry chain factor analysis:

As can be seen from the figure, the price of acetic acid fell sharply in October, down by 18.84%. The price of raw materials for acetic anhydride fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride fell sharply, which was negative for acetic anhydride. The cost of acetic anhydride enterprises has dropped significantly, and the pressure of acetic anhydride market decline has increased.

In terms of methanol, methanol fell in October, and the cost of acetic anhydride produced by methanol method decreased. The market of acetic anhydride in the future is negative, and there is room for acetic anhydride to fall. Overall, acetic anhydride raw materials were negative significantly, and it is expected that the downward pressure of acetic anhydride market will increase.

3. Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, in October, the price of raw materials of acetic anhydride fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride fell significantly, and the pressure of acetic anhydride fell dramatically; in terms of downstream customers, the demand for acetic anhydride was poor, downstream customers purchased on demand, the demand for acetic anhydride was limited, and there was no upward momentum for acetic anhydride. On the whole, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride has no upward momentum, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

I. overall trend

In October, the trend of three major PE products in the domestic market showed a downward trend, and LLDPE, HDPE and LDPE in East China continued to decline this month. According to the monitoring of the business association, the end of LLDPE 7042 was reduced to about 7450 yuan / ton; the end of LDPE 2426h was reduced to about 8400 yuan / ton; the end of HDPE 5000S was reduced to about 8316.67 yuan / ton; the decline range was all in the range of 200-300 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis

October was the peak season of demand for agricultural film, but the focus of PE market continued to move down, and the downstream orders were not as good as previous years, and the price of raw materials was expected to be more bearish. This month’s linear futures fell in shock, although rebounded during the period, but the overall weakness, Limited good for the market. Petrochemical has repeatedly lowered the factory price, weakened the market cost support, and affected by environmental protection, the production of terminal enterprises is blocked. Most of the lower reaches are just in need of replenishment, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. In the month, petrochemicals maintained a strong inventory control capacity, and the inventory was kept at a medium low level, but the good continued to be insufficient, which still could not save the declining situation. Most of the goods are shipped by the carrier, and the price continuously gives way to the profit.

Futures: on October 31, the opening price of main contracts of polyethylene futures l2001 was 7260, the highest price was 7335, the lowest price was 7255, the closing price was 7270, the former settlement price was 7285, the settlement price was 7295, down 15, down 0.07%, the volume was 388462, the position was 619888, and the daily increase was 4334. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In terms of downstream enterprises, in October, the downstream demand of the agricultural film market basically entered the peak season stage. In the peak season, many manufacturers have ordered a large number of goods in advance, with relatively stable supply and demand and high load operation of the device. At the end of October, the operating rate of agricultural film was about 58%. End of mulch film and garlic film. The overall economic situation is flat, the downstream operation wait-and-see mentality is obvious, and the procurement is just needed.

Import and export: about 1.3402 million tons of PE import in September 2019. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 40200 tons; the import volume of HDPE is 663400 tons; the import volume of LDPE is 276600 tons, and the total export volume of PE in September 2019 is 17200 tons.

III. future forecast

PE analysts of business club believe that the volatility of futures trend to some extent depresses the confidence of the industry, the traditional peak demand season did not meet expectations, the international crude oil fell, and the demand for agricultural film turned weak. At present, it is close to the end of the peak season, with limited market benefits, but at present, the petrochemical inventory has fallen down. In addition, due to the shutdown of some manufacturers’ devices, the market supply has decreased, which supports the market. It is expected that the PE market will decline slightly in November.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the price of dry process aluminum fluoride in China fell slightly in October. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 10166 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the month was 9600 yuan / ton, with the price down 5.57%.

II. Market analysis

In October, the price of aluminum fluoride fell, and some aluminum fluoride manufacturers lowered the factory price: at present, the price of aluminum fluoride in Henan is 9400-9700 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 9400-9800 yuan / ton. Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. quoted 10500 yuan / ton of aluminum fluoride, Shandong LUZHENG chemical aluminum fluoride to 11000 yuan / ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 8800 yuan / ton of aluminum fluoride.

Industry chain: in October, the overall trend of hydrofluoric acid price continued to decline, the delivery situation of manufacturers on the site still did not improve, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry remained at a low level, the demand for domestic hydrofluoric acid market was limited, in addition to the high operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid plant, the domestic spot supply was sufficient, some manufacturers continued to reduce the factory price, and by the end of the month, the south region had hydrofluoric acid The mainstream of acid negotiation is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline. In recent years, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is constantly falling. In the first half of October, the price of aluminum fluoride was stable as a whole. In the last ten days, the factory price of aluminum fluoride manufacturers was reduced by 500-800 yuan / ton, and the market price of aluminum fluoride began to decline.

III. future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry in the chemical branch of business society think: the price of upstream raw materials hydrofluoric acid keeps falling, aluminum fluoride manufacturers fail to hold up the price and start to reduce the price promotion mode. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will continue to decline steadily in November.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been declining in the near future. As of October 30, the quotation of the enterprise is about 2800 yuan / ton, down 18.84% from the beginning of the month. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2600 yuan / ton; the quotation in Shandong is about 2700-2850 yuan / ton; the quotation in Hebei is about 2850 yuan / ton; the quotation in Shaanxi is about 2600 yuan / ton; the quotation in Jiangsu is 2700-2. 800 yuan / ton, 2950-3050 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 3000-3050 yuan / ton in South China.

II. Cause analysis

Product: affected by the weak downstream demand, the recent decline of domestic acetic acid market has not decreased. In Central China, in order to reduce the storage pressure, the enterprise’s shipping intention is strong, and the quotation continues to decrease. Although Tianjin Bohua has frequent maintenance in the near future, how many orders the enterprise will ship has no significant impact on the supply of acetic acid in North China, so the price of acetic acid in the region continues to fall with the market; vinegar in East China Acid enterprises have stable production and abundant spot supply in the market. However, the long-term demand in the downstream market is poor and the negotiation at the export end is limited. In addition, the low price of acetic acid in the field is under pressure, so the price of acetic acid in the field continues to decline.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the downstream receiving mood of methanol market is still poor, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, the market is mainly going down, and the on-site trading is light. At present, about 2158 yuan / ton is insufficient to support the price of acetic acid; the trading atmosphere of domestic acetate, vinyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other industries is in a downturn, and under the situation that the raw material acetic acid continues to decline, the industry is bearish; PTA City The demand at the downstream of the plant is light, and the industry’s gas buying is flat. The demand for acetic acid market will be increased when new units are put into operation in the near future.

International: due to the stable methanol price and relatively balanced supply and demand of acetic acid in North America, the acetic acid market has been in stable operation in the near future, with a current price of about 620 US dollars / ton; the supply and demand contradiction in Asian acetic acid market is obvious, with a recent decline, with a current price of 380-435 US dollars / ton; the supply in European acetic acid market has declined slightly, with a recent high price of about 675 euros / ton.

III. future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business agency, the recent domestic acetic acid market supply-demand contradiction is increasingly prominent, coupled with the lack of raw material price support, and multiple negative factors lead to the continuous weakening of acetic acid price. At present, the profit space of enterprises is insufficient, and the decline is slowing down. Some downstream markets may buy at the bottom, but there is no obvious sign of improvement. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will still operate in a weak position in a short period of time.