I. price trend

In October, the propane market rose slightly, mainly in a narrow range of shocks. The average price of propane Market at the beginning of the month was 3925 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 4042.5 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.99% in the month, and the price was 21.69% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Propane prices are mainly volatile this month, with poor trading atmosphere in the market. As of October 28, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have no propane in stock, so they will not offer any price temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 4060 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Company is 4100 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4170 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 4120 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Zhonghai fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4020 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang Shengshi is 4020 yuan / ton. 4180 yuan / ton.

October was the peak demand season for propane, but except for the obvious increase in the market after the 11th holiday, the trend was relatively flat, and the overall increase did not meet expectations. At the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s warehouse arrangement before the festival was relatively smooth, the inventory was low, and the downstream centralized replenishment after the festival. In addition, the CP price rose sharply in October, and the international crude oil recovered, which brought support to the market, and the price pushed up significantly. However, the trend of the international market was weak, which affected the market mentality. The downstream replenishment ended, and most of them were delisted. However, the overall production and sales pressure of the manufacturer is not great, and the price drops by a small margin. In late October, with the weather becoming cold gradually, propane seasonal rigid demand support is obvious, the demand in the north is more obvious, and the market stops falling and rising, but the atmosphere of high price transaction is not good, which restricts the price rise. At present, some enterprises are under certain sales pressure, but they still have certain support for the market just in need, and the manufacturer’s mentality of protecting the market is obvious.

Saudi Aramco in October CP announced that propane prices rose and butane prices rose. Propane rose to $420 / T, up $70 / T from last month; butane $435 / T, up $75 / T from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3737 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3854 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Propane analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, seasonal rigid demand is still an important support of the market. In addition, CP expectation in November is not very volatile. Although the market transaction atmosphere is general, the firm price mentality of manufacturers is obvious, and there is not much room for short-term decline. It is expected that the trend in November will rise steadily.

On October 27, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 63.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.93% from 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 31.66% from 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has continued to decline. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride is weak. The downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure increases, and the high-end transaction is blocked. In recent years, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to be at a low level. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring process and naphthalene process is 6400-6700 yuan / ton and 5800-6000 yuan / ton respectively; in North China, the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market is 6400-6500 yuan / ton. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of phthalic anhydride is also strong. The demand for phthalic anhydride decreased and the price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to decline.

Recently, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream products dropped by 200 yuan / ton to 6500 yuan / ton. Due to the restart of maintenance devices of some domestic phthalic acid manufacturers, the supply of goods inside the site increased, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area decreased, and the quotation fell. Recently, the port phthalic acid market dropped, the port inventory was low, and the external quotation of phthalic acid fell. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market continued to decline due to the drop of upstream raw material o-benzene price. The downstream DOP price is slightly lower, the price of isooctanol is lower, and the DOP cost is lower. The DOP price is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and declining, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is slightly reduced to 7400-7700 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is declining, and the upstream ox price is falling, affected by the cost downward slide, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slightly lower trend in the later period.

I. price trend

The domestic toluene market continued to recover this week, down about 1.9% due to weaker downstream demand, shrinking transaction volume and increased port inventory, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: affected by the weakening downstream demand, shrinking transaction volume and increasing port inventory, the domestic toluene market continued to pull back this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5850-5900 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume continued to shrink and the port inventory surged to about 38000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil prices rebounded steadily this week, with Brent up 3.05%, Brent futures up 3.24%, WTI futures up 4.38% and Dubai futures up 2.18%.

In the downstream, TDI, the market is weak and volatile, and the transaction is not prosperous. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 12700-12800 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 13000 yuan / ton. In PX market, the trend of domestic PX price is stable temporarily, and the price of external market is rising. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain about 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

 
III. future forecast

Xylene analysts of business and Chemical Bureau said: next week, we will continue to focus on the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak outlook of global economic indicators. Due to the expected arrival of large quantities of toluene at the end of the month, traders are cautious at present. On the whole, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate and adjust next week.

On October 24, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 24th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 23, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 4 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 765-767 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 785-787 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The rise of external market price has a certain positive impact on the domestic PX market price, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market rose on October 23 to $55.97/barrel, or $1.49, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.17/barrel, or $1.47. EIA crude oil inventory fell by 1.699 million barrels in the week to October 18, with an expected increase of 2.2232 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 9.281 million barrels. After the data was released, WTI crude oil rose to 1.1%, breaking 55 USD / barrel. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 22nd day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 89.7%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 89%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA market, the transaction atmosphere is general, the buying is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On October 23, the PX commodity index was 54.40, which was the same as yesterday, 46.88% lower than 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 19.43% higher than 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on the 23rd, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. Due to the new plant being put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On October 22, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was stable. The closing price was 761-763 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 781-783 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic products needed to be imported. The fluctuation of external market price had a certain negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend was temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market rose on October 22, to $54.16/barrel, or $0.85, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $59.70/barrel, or $0.74. Sources from the oil production club said that OPEC and its allies will consider whether to further cut crude oil supply at a meeting in December due to concerns about weak demand growth in 2020. According to sources, Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto “dominant” country, wants to work first to comply with the production reduction agreement signed by the organization with Russia and other non member countries (known as OPEC + alliance), and then plan to further reduce crude oil production on this basis. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had limited cost support impact on downstream petrochemical products, and domestic p-xylene price trend was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average offer price in East China is around 4900-5000 yuan / ton. As of the 22nd day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 89.7%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 89%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA market, the transaction atmosphere is general, the buying is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by the original oil price. The price of PTA in the downstream market is slightly lower due to grid shock, and it is expected that PX market price will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.