I. price trend
PVC market rose like a rainbow in November, and the market turned better. According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), on November 1, the price of PVC in China was 6650 yuan / ton, on November 28, the price of PVC in China was 6977.5 yuan / ton, up 4.92% in the month, up 8.80% year on year. On November 28, the PVC commodity index was 87.97, up 0.47 points from yesterday, down 12.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 50.97% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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II. Market analysis
Products: Recently PVC futures continue to pull up, trend is strong, all the way red, support PVC spot market. At present, the PVC market 5 spot is scarce, and the prices of various manufacturers are rising. Since October, the decline rate and maintenance volume of PVC social inventory have exceeded the level of the same period last year, as well as the impact of the phenomenon of low-cost selling by manufacturers in the early stage, which prompted the downstream to actively take goods and accelerate the reduction of inventory, so that the current market supply is scarce. At this stage, some manufacturers often owe orders and do not accept new orders for the time being, that is, the situation of “you have money, I have no goods” appears frequently. Among them, there are some traders who take advantage of the opportunity to speculate, but the downstream factories are tired, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, there are many conflicting emotions, and the actual delivery and investment situation is flat. Now the North has entered the heating season, when the industry is in the off-season, the real estate, infrastructure and other end customers start to reduce, the demand for PVC is limited, and the later PVC maintenance enterprises gradually reduce, the supply increases, and the PVC market price may fall. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 28, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6650-7000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 7020-7100 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 7050-7100 yuan / ton, and that of PVC common carbide in Guangzhou is 7240-7320 yuan / ton. Prices have risen to varying degrees.
Futures: the main 2001 contract of PVC futures rose in shock. As of November 28, it closed up 2.09% and closed up 6870 or 55 at night. The highest price in the session was 6905 yuan / ton, which set a new high in nearly half a year, temporarily ranking first in domestic commodity futures, and there is still the possibility of further exploration in the future.
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Import and export: in October 2019, China imported a total of 546900 tons of PVC 45377 tons. From January to October 2019, China imported 546900 tons of PVC. In October 2019, 37900 tons of PVC will be exported, and 452300 tons of PVC will be exported from January to October.
Industrial chain: in the near future, crude oil prices have maintained a narrow range of strong shocks, and the overall market price of ethylene has declined first, then rose and then fell. In terms of calcium carbide, the operation of calcium carbide in Northwest China is normal, the price consolidation is stable, and the price of upstream raw materials is low. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, the price of calcium carbide may be low. The import of PVC downstream products decreased, and the increase of export also supported the price.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 28, 2019, there were three kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices, including PVC (1.05%), LLDPE (0.45%) and styrene butadiene rubber (0.18%). A total of 1 commodity declined on a month on month basis, with natural rubber (- 0.17%) falling. The average price of this day is 0.09%.
III. future forecast
PVC analysts believe that: at present, the social inventory is still at a low level, the situation of spot shortage is difficult to change in the short term, and businesses have strong willingness to hold up prices, and it is expected that PVC prices will continue to rise in the short term.
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