1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 135650 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the beginning of the week and up 5.22% year-on-year.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 5 times and risen 6 times, with recent fluctuations being the main trend.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, the ADP employment figures in the United States increased by 62000 in March, higher than the market expectation of 40000 and roughly the same as last month’s 63000. Coal, originally scheduled to be implemented on April 1, 2026. The nickel export tariff plan is still awaiting the results of joint research between the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and the Ministry of Finance.
On the supply side, China’s refined nickel production in March was 37337 tons, an increase of 14.53% month on month and 1.83% year-on-year. The estimated refined nickel production in China for April is 38830 tons, an increase of 4.00% month on month and 6.53% year-on-year.
On the demand side: There has been no significant improvement on the demand side, with downstream demand maintaining a pace of rigid procurement, and overall spot transactions being sluggish. The overall demand for downstream electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with better demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. In March, the stainless steel plant resumed production, but the current profit of the steel plant is low, and large-scale procurement has not yet begun after the holiday; The high price of MHP provides support for the cost of nickel sulfate, but the weak demand during the off-season is mainly due to fluctuations in nickel sulfate prices
In summary, the supply of nickel ore on the raw material side is relatively tight in reality, and the pace of supply release slows down during the Ramadan period in Indonesia; Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the shipping costs of nickel mines in the Philippines have significantly increased, and the bidding prices for Philippine mines have continued to rise. The price of high nickel pig iron is stable but slightly strong, and the supplier’s enthusiasm for price increases, but steel mills have a clear mentality of price reduction. Short term shutdown of wet process plants in Indonesia reduces short-term supply. The continuous import of resources from Russia and Indonesia, coupled with the gradual release of new production sources into the market, still puts overall pressure on the supply of refined nickel. The performance of domestic and foreign markets is differentiated, with mild destocking overseas and continued stockpiling domestically. Domestic exports continue to be hindered. Overall, Indonesia’s policy attitude is tough, macro expectations are fluctuating, and the accumulation of contradictions on the raw material side supports prices. Insufficient digestion of actual inventory remains a constraint, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate within the range.
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