Price Trend

Butadiene market rebounded in May 2019. Business Association monitoring showed that the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 7834 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of butadiene was 8551 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.15% in the month. Prices fell by 28.45% over the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This month, due to the load increase of Jihua and Fushun styrene-butadiene rubber plant, the export volume of butadiene in Fushun Petrochemical Company has greatly decreased. In addition, the delayed restart of Sirban and Shandong Huayu plants, the delayed shipment of Jiutai in Inner Mongolia and the unexpected release of supply in the northern market are the main factors to boost the market. Within the month, a small number of high-grade goods in Northeast China were markedly increased in price, and brokers’offer followed. With the rising price, the enthusiasm of merchants to ship goods in the middle and later period of this month has increased. The supply of qualified products of Jiutai and Shenhua is relatively abundant, and the restart of Srbon and Huayu devices, to some extent, has inhibited the space for the market to continue to rise. However, under the support of a small number of high-grade products and strong external offer, the domestic market is mainly consolidated after the rise.

Start-up rate: In May 2019, the overall start-up rate of butadiene industry in China increased slightly to about 70.1%. During the month, Shanghai Petrochemical Company, Silbang Petrochemical Company and Shandong Huayu Plant were restarted one after another, while Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, added 70,000 tons per year of low-load operation of butadiene plant, which boosted the start-up situation. In June, the Lanhua plant is scheduled to restart. Nanjing Chengzhi has an additional 100,000 tons/year plant. Although Liaoyang Petrochemical has a parking overhaul plan, it is expected to start or continue to rebound.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in May 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (11.73%), nitric acid (9.51%) and butadiene (9.15%). There are 48 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.1% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-60.56%), sulfuric acid (-42.25%) and TDI (-26.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.9%.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the positive side is that the external market is strong and the downstream market just needs to be supported. Empty side: Jiutai plant load in Inner Mongolia is expected to increase, downstream Shunding industry part of the plant stops, start-up declines, and the northern spot resources are abundant. The recent strong shipping offer from June to July, coupled with a small number of high-grade goods in Northeast China, has brought support to the mentality of some businesses. However, with the restart of some domestic devices and the continuous release of new manufacturers’output, the market supply and demand fundamentals are limited. With the increase of supply in the north, it is expected that there will be some room for a fall in the northern market in June. Eastern China suggested that attention should be paid to the storage pressure in tank farms and the guidance of external information. Although the offer was high for the time being, butadiene analysts from business associations predicted that the market support was weakening with the reboot of Korean plant. They also did not rule out the weakening expectations.

On June 4, the fluorite commodity index was 104.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.29% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 111.68% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is rising, the average domestic fluorite price is 2968.75 yuan/ton as of the 4th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is rising recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market is rising on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of 4 th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3100 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-3100 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3200 yuan/ton.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11550 yuan/ton as of the 4th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakened and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is 18500-19500 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

Price Trend

Domestic aggregated MDI market continued to weaken. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI was 14,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and 13,625 yuan/ton at the weekend. The market price of aggregated MDI fell by 2.68% in the week, 36.75% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the aggregate MDI market as a whole showed a small fluctuation, first rising slightly and then falling slightly. Up to now, the mainstream price of Shanghai goods is around 12600-12800 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of Wanhua goods is around 13800 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, market news was chaotic, and the price of Cosco was rumored to be 13500 yuan/ton, which raised the market price slightly. Businessmen raised their quotations one after another. The downstream inquiries were positive, and the trading situation was still acceptable. On the evening of the same day, the guideline price of Cosco was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the mindset of the traders was frustrated, then the market price began to show a narrow downward trend. On Wednesday, Wanhua evening market announced its June listing price of 14500 yuan/ton, a sharp drop in the ring-to-ring ratio. On Thursday, Huntsman announced its June listing price of 14300 yuan per ton in midday trading, which was also down sharply from last month. Two listings have been announced one after another, the latter is gradually pessimistic.

On the market side, as of Friday (5.31), the aggregate MDI market in South China was weak. Businessmen have a pessimistic attitude towards the future market. Holders follow the market and talk about it one by one, and watch other manufacturers guide prices. Eastern China is consolidating the weak market of MDI. Businessmen’s mentality is frustrated. Holders mainly accompany the shipment and watch the listing guidelines of other manufacturers. The market of aggregated MDI in North China is mainly weak. Wanhua manufacturer announces the new moon listing, which has little stimulating effect. Businessmen are frustrated. Holders actively deliver goods along with them and look at price guidelines from other manufacturers.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene in East China rose slightly, the mainstream talks in East China ranged from 4500 to 4550 yuan / ton, and Shandong mainstream talks ranged from 4250 to 4380 yuan / ton. Within a week, the number of ships arriving at the port decreased, and the inventory of East China Port decreased slightly to about 230,000 tons. The decline in port inventory gives the market a chance to soar, colleagues, this week’s large increase in external prices also has some psychological support for the rise of domestic pure benzene. In the week, the price of pure benzene in East China rose slightly to around 4550 yuan/ton, and Sinopec’s listed price in East China rose 50 yuan/ton to 4500 yuan/ton. However, after the price rise, the downstream still maintains on-demand purchasing, and the turnover has not improved significantly.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: June is approaching the hard bubble off-season gradually, maintenance devices are resuming production, new market sources “surge” into the market, coupled with a large number of social stocks accumulated in the first half of the year, the downstream demand consumption is much worse than in previous years. Business Cooperative MDI analysts expect that aggregate MDI market prices will face the possibility of further exploration, and watch the latest developments of manufacturers and businesses.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite in May was on the bottom slightly weaker. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite on May 1 was 1983.33 yuan/ton, and on May 31 was 1966.67 yuan/ton, with a slight drop of 0.84%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In May, the domestic market demand for pyrosulfite has not improved. The domestic market price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is mostly between 1800-2000 yuan/ton, and most of the prices are around 1950 yuan/ton. Influenced by the traditional off-season, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market in May is still light, enterprises are still mainly completing old orders. Meanwhile, the declining raw material cost also suppresses the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in May. The factory price in some areas has been lowered again slightly, which drives the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite to continue to operate slightly weakly at the bottom in May.

Industry chain: As of May 30, the price of soda ash in upstream of sodium pyrosulfite fell 1.18% in a single month, the price of sulphur fell 5.9% in a single month, the price of caprolactam in downstream fell 9.8%, and the price of sodium pyrosulfite fell 0.84% in a small way. The price of upstream and downstream products declined along the whole line, the processing cost continued to be suppressed, the wait-and-and-see attitude of trade entities remained unchanged, and the price of sodium pyrosulfite rose and

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the price of upstream and downstream products continues to be weak, the trade body has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and under the double pressure of cost and demand, it will still take some time for domestic sodium pyrosulfite market prices to bottom up.

On May 29, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 60.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.04% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), up 23.96% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has maintained a low level, the market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have maintained just-needed procurement, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 6000-6200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5700-5800 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6000-6200 yuan/ton, and the market is The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, has dropped to 6200 yuan/ton, and the actual market transaction price is 6200 yuan/ton. The quotation has declined, and the port market is general. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price fluctuation maintains stable, the turnover of phthalic acid is general, the port phthalic acid inventory is low, the quotation of phthalic acid external market is low, the import phthalic acid cost fluctuation, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride remains weak. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7300 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6000 yuan/ton.