I. Trend of spot copper price

As shown in the chart above, domestic copper prices rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic spot copper price was 49,335 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week it was 49,071.67 yuan/ton, down 0.53%, down 3.38% year-on-year.

II. Copper Current Statement

As shown in the figure above, this week’s main contract price of copper is similar to the spot price trend, both rising first and then falling, but the main contract price is higher than the spot price, indicating that people expect copper prices to be good in the next two months.

II. Market Analysis

Supply: Codelco, the top copper producer, produced 11500 tons of copper in February, the lowest monthly output since January 2016, down 9.5% annually and 19.3% year-on-year. Among them, due to heavy rains in mines such as Chuquicamata and Radomiro Tomic, production in the North dropped to 50,500 tons. But the largest El Teniente copper mine in Codelco produced 34,600 tons in February, an increase of 4.8% annually. More supply disruptions occurred in the copper industry than in 2018, which may lead to insufficient supply in the market.

Demand: According to CAAC data, the decline in passenger car production and sales in March has narrowed considerably, but it is still not optimistic, which may be a drag on the overall consumption of non-ferrous metals. Entering the second quarter, the peak season is approaching stronger demand, and the decline in copper stocks in the last two weeks seems to indicate the arrival of the peak season.

Inventory: Copper stocks in Lun fell mainly this week, with a cumulative decrease of 5 875 tonnes to 19 425 tonnes, a cumulative decrease of 2.96%.

Macroscopic: The IMF lowered global economic expectations, and the ECB stressed Wednesday that global economic growth was threatened, including Britain’s exit from Europe; the US threatened to impose tariffs on 11 billion US dollars of EU products; Europe threatened retaliation; the U.S. tariff war was on the horizon; trade tensions between the U.S. and the U.S. triggered demand concerns; and pressure on copper prices.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, copper analysts from the Nonferrous Branch of Business Association believe that copper prices are good in the anticipation of reduced supply and start-up of consumption, but still pressured by the global economic drag, copper prices will rise sharply, and copper prices are expected to remain high volatility in the short term.

On April 9, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 64.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.99% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 33.99% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride is weaker, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China is weaker, downstream factories are in need of purchasing, factory inventory pressure is continuing, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiation is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 6400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the market weakness The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6700 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 6700 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port market is general. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price is stable, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is rising, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend is stable, and the market price of phthalic anhydride remains weak. DOP prices in the downstream are lower. Recently, in the DOP market in Zhejiang, the quotation of merchants has dropped to 8300-8400 yuan/ton, and the downstream price has slightly decreased. The demand for phthalic anhydride in the upstream is limited. The market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be around 6600 yuan/ton.

The PX commodity index on April 7 was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Price trend is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 5, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by US$1/ton. The closing price is US$1022-1022/ton FOB in Korea and US$1039-1041/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On April 5, the price of WTI crude oil in May rose to US$63.08 per barrel, an increase of US$0.98. The price of Brent crude oil in June rose to US$70.34 per barrel, an increase of US$0.94. The rising trend of crude oil price has a positive impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend rose on the 8th, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6700-6850 yuan/ton, as of the 8th domestic PTA start-up rate is about 75%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price changes little, it is expected that PX market prices will remain stable in the later period.

According to the monitoring of business associations, the market of hydrogen peroxide has stabilized after a sharp rise in March. On April 4, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in China was 1077 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.

In April, the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide is gradually stable and the market is still open. On the eve of Qingming Festival, quotations from major domestic manufacturers were stable. Shandong mainstream offer 1000-1100 yuan/ton; Hebei mainstream offer 1100 yuan/ton; Anhui mainstream offer 1100 yuan/ton, the market is stable.

Business Club hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that after the Qingming Festival, hydrogen peroxide market will continue to be stable, mainly with small fluctuations.

On April 2, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cycle peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 3rd day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations were in the range of 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas have been forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recent domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton on the 3rd day, the stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined; the price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3460 yuan/ton on the 3rd day, and the temporary stable trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, ammonium nitrate Market price trends remained stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices rose slightly, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain volatile in the later period.