According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price in East China has slightly decreased this week. On January 7th, the average market price in East China was 16700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 16800 yuan/ton on January 1st, a decrease of 0.60%.

This week, the domestic TDI market is observing and consolidating, with slight price fluctuations. The filling of factory spot goods is slow, and suppliers continue to support the market. The mentality of the trade market is not good, and holders are actively shipping, with limited actual transactions. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and there is a strong demand for purchasing when entering the market, which weakens the support for TDI and leads to a slight decline in market prices.

The upstream toluene market is relatively strong and rising. On January 7th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6680 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.67% compared to the price of 6570 yuan/ton on January 1st. The international crude oil price has rebounded compared to the previous period, with support from the cost and external prices of toluene. The price of toluene in Asia has rebounded, while domestic production has slightly decreased, easing the pressure on toluene supply. In terms of demand, downstream demand for toluene is limited, and support for toluene is limited. The toluene market has slightly increased.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic TDI spot filling is slow, and holders are observing the guidance of supplier information, actively shipping, and downstream buyers follow up on demand. The market supply and demand performance is stagnant, and TDI is in a dilemma of rising and falling. From the perspective of the news, TDI major factories may adjust prices on a weekly basis, which may affect the mentality of traders. Considering that there is stock demand in the downstream before the holiday, holders have a strong intention to rise. It is expected that the TDI market may be stronger in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream buyers and the release of market news from suppliers.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of tetrahydrofuran is temporarily stable this week. The average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market this week was 12925 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 0.66% over the weekend.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have temporarily stabilized their quotations this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the 1,4-butanediol market saw a slight decline this week, with prices dropping from 9535.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9514.29 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.22%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.25% at the end of the week. The market situation of maleic anhydride remained stable this week, with a price of 7860 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 14.33% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support, and the supply and demand side has had a negative impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has slightly decreased this week. The price of spandex dropped from 32125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 32000 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.39%, and the weekend price fell 9.54% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers are less proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In mid to late January, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream maleic anhydride market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Recently (12.29-1.5), the acrylonitrile market has been weak with a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the bulk price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9762 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% from last Friday’s 9812 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9600 to 9900 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials has slightly declined, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened; The overall low level stability of the main downstream ABS production; The supply of acrylonitrile units is loose, and the impact of supply and demand is bearish, resulting in a weak market consolidation.

Recently (12.29-1.5), there has been a slight increase in the construction of domestic acrylonitrile units, and the supply side is relatively loose.

Recently (12.29-1.5), the raw material propylene market has been weak and has fallen, with a bearish impact on the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the domestic propylene price was 6638 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.35% from last Friday’s 6868 yuan/ton.

It is understood that since late December, downstream ABS production has remained fluctuating around 7.3%, with only essential support for acrylonitrile; As of early January, the domestic acrylic fiber plant has started operating at a low level, with weak demand for acrylonitrile; The nitrile rubber plant is operating normally, with slight support for the demand for acrylonitrile; The downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm in the polyacrylamide market is not good, and some orders are restricted in export. The low and stable start of production has weak support for the rigid demand for acrylonitrile. Overall, the current demand for acrylonitrile is weak, and the supply of acrylonitrile is loose, resulting in a weak and stable market trend.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still mainly loose; The demand side support is weak, and the price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.

After the year, the price of acetic anhydride will decrease

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 3rd, the price of acetic anhydride was 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the price of 5912.50 yuan/ton on December 29th before the year, and the acetic anhydride market will decline after the year. After the New Year’s Day holiday, acetic acid enterprises resumed production and increased production. The supply of acetic acid resumed, and acetic anhydride enterprises resumed production. The supply of acetic anhydride enterprises was sufficient, and the price of acetic anhydride decreased after the year.

Enterprise resumption of construction

The load of acetic acid plants in Tianjin has increased, leading to an increase in acetic acid supply. The equipment of acetic anhydride manufacturers in Shandong region has resumed operation, and the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient.

The price of acetic acid has fallen

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of January 3rd, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.08% compared to December 25th, when the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton. The load of acetic acid enterprises in Tianjin has increased, leading to high production rates and high inventory levels among downstream customers. Downstream demand for procurement has increased, while downstream customers are mainly wait-and-see, resulting in a decline in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, after New Year’s Day, the operating load of acetic acid enterprises has increased, the price of acetic acid has decreased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased. After the holiday, the production of acetic anhydride enterprises resumed, and the supply of acetic anhydride was sufficient. In the future, after the holiday, enterprises will resume production of acetic anhydride equipment, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market showed a negative trend in December. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 20533.33 yuan/ton on December 31, with a price increase or decrease of -3.75% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The weakness of PA66 continued within the month, with spot prices consolidating after falling. The spot prices of various brands have all been lowered, and the production line operating rate has remained stable at around 63%. The supply of goods in the interval market is tight, and the inventory position is average. Enterprises are cautious in pricing operations, and the support from suppliers is still sufficient. Downstream textile, electrical, and modification enterprises mainly maintain production by purchasing goods, and at the end of the year, on-site stocking revolves around weak and rigid demand, with weak support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, hexamethylenediamine is supported by price hikes from international large factories, but there is an expectation of easing the tight supply situation in the future, and the price is generally entering a stagnant and downward pressure pattern. Early bearish guidance in the adipic acid market, followed by consolidation after a price drop. At present, there is a rapid recovery, and the support for PA66 is weak first and then repaired. Overall, the support from the cost side for the PA66 market is average. At present, the market supply and demand are not strong, and the overall price of PA66 is weak.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 fell weakly in December. The fluctuation of raw material prices has provided moderate support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is still acceptable. The demand side still relies mainly on maintaining production, and it is expected that the PA66 market will gradually enter the pre holiday market in January, continuing the weak supply-demand pattern, resulting in weak prices and consolidation.