1、 Trend analysis

 

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, on March 6th, copper prices rose strongly, with a daily increase of over a thousand yuan, reaching 78323.33 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.93%. Copper prices have been fluctuating upwards since early January this year, rising 6.09% from the beginning of the year and reaching a new high in nearly May. Copper prices in the New York market surged by over 5% on Wednesday, further surpassing other global benchmark prices. The source of this copper market storm lies directly in US President Trump’s remarks about the possibility of imposing high tariffs on imported copper, which quickly triggered a chain reaction in the market, pushing up US copper prices and further surpassing the global benchmark London copper price.

 

Multiple favorable factors

 

US tariffs trigger market volatility

 

In his speech to Congress on Tuesday, Trump mentioned imposing tariffs on copper, and traders are concerned that the tariffs may be higher than expected and come earlier, triggering a crazy rise in copper prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) during the Asian session. Market participants generally believe that once import copper tariffs are implemented, it will limit the supply of copper and push up prices. This concern quickly spread in the market, triggering panic buying by investors and exacerbating the upward trend of copper prices.

 

weaker dollar

 

The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has heated up, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar. The weakening of the US dollar has made commodity prices denominated in US dollars relatively cheaper, attracting more international buyers to enter the market and further driving up demand for copper.

 

Geopolitical events

 

Geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US China trade friction, exacerbated the market’s concern about the stability of the supply chain, and promoted the flow of safe haven funds into the bulk commodity market.

 

Policy stimulus

 

China has launched fiscal stimulus measures, such as large-scale equipment upgrades, while Germany plans to establish a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund. Coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening of the US dollar, this has boosted the financial attributes and industrial demand for copper.

 

By 2027, the demand for copper in data centers may account for 3.3% of global copper demand (compared to only 5.2% for electric vehicles), which will drive up copper prices and have a profound impact on the global copper market.

 

Mining production interruption

 

Several major copper mines around the world, such as the Cobre copper mine in Panama, have suspended production due to environmental protests or policy issues, and strikes in Chile and Brazil have also affected production. Mining giants such as Anglo American Resources have lowered their production targets, resulting in a slowdown in the growth rate of copper concentrate supply.

 

Smelting costs and inventory pressure

 

The copper concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to decline to negative values, putting pressure on smelters’ profits. Although refined copper production has not significantly decreased, the expected tightening of raw materials is heating up. The continuous decline in spot inventory of electrolytic copper in China further exacerbates supply concerns.

 

Demand side: driven by new energy and electrification

 

The global energy transition is accelerating, with a surge in investment demand for electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and the power grid. As the largest consumer of copper, China’s power grid investment and new energy policies (such as equipment renewal action plans) directly drive copper demand. Electrification demand is expected to account for over 50% of the global increase in copper consumption by 2025.

 

LME copper inventory

 

According to the above chart, LME copper inventory has been slightly decreasing since late February. As of the 6th, LME copper inventory was 259175 tons, a decrease of 4.49% from the beginning of the year.

 

According to the annual copper price comparison chart, in the past five years, the copper price trend in March has mostly been positive.

 

Market forecast:

 

In summary, the recent increase in copper prices is the result of multiple drivers including policies, supply and demand, finance, and geopolitical factors. Trump’s tariff policy has not yet been officially implemented, and its uncertainty remains significant. In addition, the complex and volatile global economic situation may also have an impact on the future trend of copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong in the short term, and in the future, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of China’s policies, the actual impact of US tariffs, and the recovery of mining capacity.

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According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, starting from March 1st, the hydrogen peroxide market weakened and prices fluctuated and fell. On March 1st, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 723 yuan/ton. On March 5th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market decreased by 0.92% to 716 yuan/ton.

 

Negative pressure suppresses the decline of hydrogen peroxide market

 

At the beginning of March, the terminal printing and papermaking industry had average terminal demand, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers had weak pricing psychology. They lowered the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide one after another, and the hydrogen peroxide market showed a weak decline. The average market price fell to 700 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by about 50 yuan/ton. The market transactions are average, and the sales are mediocre.

 

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that in mid March, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry improved, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply decreased. The market may stop falling and rise in the future.

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According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke rose sharply in February and then fell back, with an overall increase in prices. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 1877.50 yuan/ton on February 1 and 2545.00 yuan/ton on February 28, with a monthly increase of 35.55%.

 

Cost wise: International crude oil prices fluctuated downward in February. In the first half of the year, commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories in the United States increased significantly, coupled with market concerns about the risk of trade disputes, and Trump’s reaffirmation of increasing US crude oil production, leading to a decline in international oil prices. In the middle of the month, market concerns about the potential drag on demand from US tariffs have weakened, while US sanctions on some oil producing countries continue. Market concerns about potential supply risks have increased, coupled with the possibility of OPEC+delaying production increases, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The acceleration of the Russia Ukraine peace talks in the latter half of the year has led to a reduction in geopolitical risks, and the United States may impose tariffs on multiple countries and organizations, including the European Union, causing a decline in international oil prices.

 

Supply side: After the Spring Festival, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries has been good, with active transactions. The price of petroleum coke continues to rise significantly, and the inventory of petroleum coke remains low. In addition, some local coking units have plans to shut down or reduce production, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke and benefiting the petroleum coke market. In late February, the transaction volume of petroleum coke from local refineries was average. In the early stage, the price of petroleum coke rose sharply, and downstream costs were under pressure. Purchasing was cautious, and refinery petroleum coke shipments were limited. In addition, some refineries adjusted their petroleum coke indicators, resulting in a continuous decline in petroleum coke prices. In February, imported petroleum coke continued to arrive at the port for storage, and the port inventory increased slightly. In the first half of the month, traders mainly executed previous orders, and imported sponge coke resources were tight, resulting in continuous price increases; Affected by the decrease in local coking prices in the second half of the month, the shipment of imported petroleum coke is under pressure, and some coke prices have fallen. However, due to the tight supply of imported low sulfur sponge coke resources, prices are relatively firm.

 

Demand side: Currently, the operating rate of metal silicon in Xinjiang is around 6 layers, and it is expected that there will be a small number of new furnaces added in the short term, but the overall growth rate is limited. The operating rate of metallic silicon in the northwest region remains stable at around 8 layers. Some enterprises in Yunnan have maintenance plans, and the operating rate of metal silicon has narrowly declined, with an operating rate of around 2 floors. At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. Metal silicon and upstream and downstream factories are gradually resuming production, and the transmission between supply and demand is gradually recovering. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.

 

In February, the overall market for medium sulfur calcined coke saw a significant increase. In mid to early February, due to the continuous rise in petroleum coke prices, the cost pressure on calcined coke increased, and some companies suspended quoting and accepting orders; Affected by the decline in petroleum coke prices in late February, coupled with limited downstream demand approaching the end of the month, the weak consolidation of medium sulfur calcined coke was the main trend.

 

In February, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained at a high level. Sichuan gradually resumed production by reducing production capacity in the early stages, and most are expected to achieve full capacity operation by the end of March. A loss making electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Guangxi has also resumed production recently, with a total production capacity of around 300000 tons per year. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

 

Market forecast: Currently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke is active, overall inventory is low, port spot inventory is slowly declining, and downstream enterprises still have purchasing demand. It is expected that the petroleum coke market will stabilize and rise in the near future.

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The epoxy propane market showed a “V” trend in February, with prices gradually stabilizing after bottoming out and rebounding. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8037.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.77% compared to the beginning of this month (8100 yuan/ton).

 

Price influencing factors:

 

Supply side: The operating rate of the epoxy propane industry is around 75.7%. In early February, after the end of the Spring Festival holiday, epoxy propane manufacturers resumed production, resulting in an increase in supply and pressure on inventory accumulation. The market’s willingness to raise prices was insufficient, and the price trend declined; Due to the impact of equipment shutdown and other factors in the later stage, the supply has been reduced, inventory is low, and market prices are gradually rising. At present, both Lihua Yiweiyuan and Xinyue Group’s epoxy propane units are in a shutdown state.

 

Raw material side: Acrylic on the raw material side is affected by changes in supply and demand, mainly consuming inventory, resulting in a weak market price trend. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6813.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.15% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

 

Downstream demand side: In early February, some terminals had not yet resumed production, the downstream demand atmosphere was cold, the purchasing mentality was not positive, and the transmission of epoxy propane was not smooth. In a state of strong supply and weak demand, the price of epoxy propane showed a downward trend. The terminal gradually resumed production in the later stage, and the purchasing mentality was positive. In addition, the news of the shutdown of large factories on the supply side brought positive support, and downstream purchasing followed suit, resulting in a rebound in trading atmosphere.

 

Market forecast:

 

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that while the supply of epoxy propane in the market is reduced, downstream demand has increased. In addition, due to the temporary suspension of sales by large enterprises, it is predicted that the epoxy propane market price may show a volatile trend in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

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In February 2025, due to cost factors, the average price of nylon filament increased slightly. In the first half of the month, the price of upstream raw material caprolactam was significantly affected by international crude oil fluctuations, and the cost pressure of caprolactam will continue to be transmitted to nylon yarn, supporting its price increase; In the second half of the month, it followed the weak decline of raw materials. Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, the overall inventory in the market is at a normal level, with insufficient new orders from downstream factories and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with limited actual transactions in the market and weak support from the demand side. In the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the trend of the cost side and changes in downstream market demand.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the monthly average price of nylon filament will increase narrowly in February 2025. As of February 28, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 16680 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.72%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14300 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.88%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17300 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.44%.

 

The price of raw material caprolactam has risen

 

In terms of cost, the support on the cost side is strong. In February 2025, the trend of raw material caprolactam first rose and then fell, and the overall price increased. As of February 28, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11220 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.72%.

 

Supply and demand: In February 2025, coinciding with the return of the Spring Festival holiday, nylon filament manufacturers are gradually resuming production and work, and the industry’s operating rate is gradually increasing. The on-site supply has slightly increased, and the performance of the supply side is still acceptable; The nylon filament market is operating at around 7.8% capacity. The downstream market has also basically resumed work and production. In addition, most manufacturers had already stocked up before the year, and in February, the basic consumption of raw material inventory was the main factor. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement was not high, and the actual transactions on site were limited, resulting in insufficient support from the demand side.

 

Future forecast

 

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the upstream pure benzene price fell at the end of the month, and there was little fluctuation in the on-site caprolactam equipment. The demand side mostly maintained on-demand procurement, and the short-term caprolactam market price mainly fluctuated at a high level.

 

Supply and demand side: Most nylon filament manufacturers have resumed normal production, and the on-site supply will increase significantly. At the same time, the overall inventory level in the market may increase; Downstream manufacturers have resumed work, and each enterprise has a certain amount of raw material inventory. In addition, due to insufficient confidence in the future market, the demand for replenishment is limited. However, with the arrival of the traditional textile peak season in March, the demand side will increase. It is expected that the short-term nylon filament market will be mainly driven by strong demand.

 

Overall, the spot market for raw material caprolactam and nylon PA6 chips are mainly operating strongly, with decent cost support. The traditional peak demand season combined with high costs may result in a stable to strong trend in nylon filament prices. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly experience slight fluctuations and consolidation.

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