According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fluctuated and weakened in February. As of February 27th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.37% from the beginning of the month. The average ex factory price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 7218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, some PX facilities reduced their load and shut down, leading to a strong rise in PX prices and a positive boost in costs. But with the easing of the geopolitical situation in Europe, the decline in international crude oil prices, weakened cost support, and less than expected demand recovery, the price of polyester staple fibers has accelerated its decline.

Looking at the future, on the cost side, the unexpected increase in US refined oil inventories in the crude oil market indicates that the expectation of weak demand will not change, coupled with the pressure on oil prices brought by the Ukraine Russia peace agreement. As of February 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.62 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.07 per barrel. Further attention needs to be paid to tariff policies, OPEC+production plans, etc., as the oil market is likely to continue to fluctuate widely.

On the one hand, the PX market is affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices, and on the other hand, from the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, there is a concentrated maintenance plan for PX facilities in Asia in the second quarter, and some short process facilities may continue to operate with reduced production. Due to the pressure of processing space, there is a possibility of expanding the maintenance scale of PTA on the demand side, and the prospects for the supply and demand pattern are not optimistic. However, the expected increase in demand for oil blending may have a temporary boost effect on the PX market. The expectation of reduced supply and demand pressure drives market confidence to rebound, and prices are expected to run stronger.

The PTA market in February first rose and then fell. As of February 27th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4967 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the beginning of the month. Under the low processing fees, PTA factories have increased maintenance, and the PTA industry’s operating rate was around 79% at the end of February. Some units were still undergoing maintenance in March and April.

On the demand side, downstream polyester production and sales recovery fell short of expectations, and there were not many new orders in the terminal textile industry. As of the end of February, the operating rate of the weaving machine industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 66%. There is limited room for further improvement in operating rates, and yarn inventory is at a high level. Even if terminal demand starts, it is difficult to quickly form positive feedback. The slow issuance of new orders for domestic and foreign trade, coupled with difficulties in negotiating new orders, has led to a cautious attitude towards the recovery of demand in March, which has dampened market confidence.

Business Society analysts believe that the current pressure on the accumulation of polyester staple fiber inventory is prominent. In addition, after the Spring Festival, the production of polyester staple fiber industry has steadily increased at a high level, but the recovery speed of downstream spinning industry is slow. Therefore, the weak supply and demand structure has dragged down the market mentality, and the pressure has intensified. But as the textile industry gradually enters the traditional peak demand season, the demand side will improve or drive up the price of polyester staple fibers.

Aluminum prices strengthen in February

Aluminum prices strengthened on February 26th. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 26, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20546.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% from the market average price of 20213.33 yuan/ton on February 1.

In terms of futures, on February 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20615 yuan/ton, up 0.34%.

Reasons for today’s rebound in aluminum prices:

Although China’s aluminum ingot inventory is in a seasonal accumulation trend, it is still relatively low overall. On February 24th, China’s aluminum ingot inventory reached 24000 tons to 880000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory also decreased by 4000 tons to 535900 tons on February 24th. Low inventory has led to tight market supply and driven aluminum prices to strengthen.

The expectation of Rusal’s return to the international market has risen, and the price of London aluminum in foreign markets is higher. The inflow of Rusal into China may decrease, which will increase the price difference between domestic and foreign aluminum prices.

Due to the expectation of an important domestic conference and the impact of market sentiment on news, Hong Kong aluminum industry stocks fluctuated and rose on February 26th, with positive financial sentiment for the sector and strong aluminum prices.

Aluminum prices strengthen in February

Aluminum prices strengthened in February, but today they have decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20213.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% compared to the market average price of 20213.33 yuan/ton on February 1.

The market price today has dropped by about 200 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. The spot price of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) from Aluminum Corporation of China Limited in the East China market is 20390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; The external quotation for the South China market is 20380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; The Southwest market quoted 20320 yuan/ton to the outside world, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; The Central Plains market quoted 20260 yuan/ton to the outside world, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton.

In terms of futures, on February 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60%.

Reasons for today’s aluminum price decline:

1. Expected loosening of Russian aluminum ban

On February 24th, the Russian President announced that Russia is ready to supply 2 million tons of aluminum to the US market. The market’s expectation of Rusal returning to the market has risen.

2. The conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict has eased, and energy has risen in the early stage, pushing up the cost of aluminum ingots in Europe, thus supporting the loose expectation of aluminum prices.

3. Seasonal accumulation trend of domestic aluminum ingots:

Aluminum ingot inventory maintains a trend of depletion, and the rate of depletion far exceeds expectations. Data shows that as of February 24th, China’s aluminum ingot inventory has accumulated 24000 to 880000 tons, and aluminum bars have accumulated 6000 to 334500 tons.

Other inventory data: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 4000 tons to 535900 tons on February 24th, and on February 25th, Shanghai Aluminum’s main contract warehouse receipt was 118380 tons, an increase of 2723 tons from the previous day.

The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, oil price premiums have fallen, and the increase in US crude oil inventories has affected investor confidence. On February 21st, international crude oil futures plummeted, with the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $70.40 per barrel, a decrease of $2.08 or 2.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.43 per barrel, a decrease of $2.05 or 2.7%.

Cost support weakened, and the domestic PTA market fell on February 24th. The average market price in East China was 5036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% from the previous trading day. The closing price of PTA main futures TA2505 was 5058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75%, with a settlement price of 5074 yuan/ton and a daily increase of 4230 lots.

In terms of self supply, two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 5 million tons in southern China were shut down for maintenance as planned in mid February. Some PTA plants were restarted this week, and there is sufficient stock supply. And recently, PTA’s main suppliers have delivered more spot goods, resulting in a significant increase in spot circulation.

Downstream polyester factories have low production and sales, and PTA demand has not recovered as expected, so the overall fundamentals are still weak. Currently, most terminal factories have resumed work and production, and the weaving operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 60%. However, due to factors such as limited new orders, funding issues, and manpower shortages, the textile market has started slowly overall. In terms of orders, orders for spring and summer after the holiday did not meet expectations and are mostly in a wait-and-see state. There are no obvious signs of large orders being placed for spring and summer, and weaving manufacturers have fewer new orders.

Business analysts believe that from a cost perspective, the market is concerned about the progress of geopolitical negotiations, and international oil prices may continue to fluctuate, which will dominate the PTA price trend. Under the low processing fee, attention still needs to be paid to unplanned PTA plant maintenance. With the arrival of the “Golden Three Silver Four”, it is expected that the demand for textile and clothing essential orders will gradually increase slowly, and it is expected that PTA prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of polyester filament has fluctuated narrowly this week, but the overall trend is relatively stable. On February 21st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7300-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8450-8600 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, this week, the downstream stretch and weaving start-up rate of polyester filament continued to rise, but the recovery of textile market demand is slow, and downstream factories need to consume raw materials in the early stage. Most downstream factories are waiting for the release of month end promotional prices before considering whether to stock up, resulting in a sustained sluggish market production and sales. Polyester filament continues to be weakly consolidated, with a generally weak trading atmosphere and stable prices. In actual transactions, discounts are offered, and some factories experience mixed ups and downs.

In terms of supply, some polyester filament production enterprises have adjusted their production strategies based on market demand and raw material prices, and the discount space for some specifications of products has been moderately reduced. The overall market supply is relatively stable, but the production and sales situation is not optimistic due to downstream demand.

In terms of inventory, the POY/FDY/DTY inventory of polyester filament reached 14.5/13/20 days respectively, and downstream users urgently needed replenishment. The overall production and sales of polyester filament were average, with good transactions in some areas. The average production and sales of polyester filament were 40%.

Overall, currently, the prices of polyester filament in most polyester factories remain largely unchanged, and there is a high probability of short-term weak adjustment. Although the operating rate of downstream elastic and weaving enterprises is gradually recovering, their intention to purchase polyester filament spot goods is insufficient, and the raw material inventory in the early stage needs to be consumed. The production and sales rate of most polyester filament manufacturers cannot be effectively increased. The main raw material PTA market is experiencing a decline, with average cost support. Business Society believes that the polyester filament market is operating at a standstill with limited fluctuations.