In the second week of September, due to the favorable cost of methanol, the dimethyl ether market ushered in a sharp rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3562.50 yuan / ton on September 1 and 3681.25 yuan / ton on September 9, with an increase of 3.92% during the week and 4.80% compared with August 1.

As of September 9, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% September 9th 4030 yuan / ton

Hebei region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% September 9th 3900 yuan / ton

Henan region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% September 9th 3680-3765 yuan / ton

After experiencing a tepid market for more than a month, the dimethyl ether market finally ushered in a sharp rise in the second week of September. The dimethyl ether Market in Henan increased by nearly 4% during the week, and the quotations of most manufacturers in Henan, the main production area, rose to above 3700 yuan / ton. There were many positive factors in the market this week, which supported the continuous rise of dimethyl ether prices. First, the methanol market rose sharply, and the rise of raw material market brought strong support to dimethyl ether. Followed by the liquefied gas market, civil gas continued to rise during the week, and the price difference between gas and ether gradually opened, which was good for the market mentality. The downstream market entry is more positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the mentality is strong, and the price is pushed up one after another.

In terms of cost methanol market, on September 9, the methanol market in Henan increased sharply, and the on-site trading was good. The bidding transaction of main enterprises in Henan Province was 2750-2760 yuan / ton, and the factory withdrew cash exchange, up 165 yuan / ton compared with Tuesday; Other enterprises offer stable prices and execute orders for shipment; Luoyang market negotiation refers to 2700-2770 yuan / ton of out of tank spot exchange. The negotiated price of methanol market in central Shandong is 2600-2620 yuan / ton and delivered to spot exchange. The price of local methanol factory in central Shandong is stable at 2790-2800 yuan / ton. The factory provides spot exchange, and the transaction is still good.

At present, the rising cost of methanol and liquefied gas civil market has brought strong support to the dimethyl ether Market. The downstream has staged replenishment into the market, with good enthusiasm, smooth shipment of manufacturers, controllable inventory and strong mentality. At present, there are still negative factors in the market. Although it has entered the peak season in September, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, which has significantly restrained the rising market. In general, the rise of dimethyl ether Market is limited, and it is mainly increased in the short term or steadily. Specifically, we still need to pay attention to the change of raw material methanol.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (September 8): 2500 yuan / ton

On September 8, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 6.67 yuan / ton, or 0.27%, compared with the quotation on September 6, and 46.77% compared with the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have increased slightly recently, with strong cost support. From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period. There are maintenance plans in Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, and the daily output of urea has declined. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to rise slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2550 yuan / ton.

According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on September 5 was 37.14, the same as yesterday, down 62.86% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 36.14% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the first week of September 2021

Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of mainstream price of natural rubber in the first week of September 2021

Data monitoring shows that from the end of August to September 5, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to decrease slightly. It was reported as 12697.5 yuan / ton on Monday and 12525 yuan / ton on Friday, a decrease of 1.36%.

From the perspective of new rubber output: the new rubber in the main natural rubber production area this month is in the peak production season. Due to the comprehensive impact of epidemic situation, rainfall and shipping problems, the rubber import and export volume is not high, and the raw material prices in the domestic and foreign markets fluctuated and fell weekly. The data show that the glue price in Heai, Thailand last Friday was 48.7 baht / kg, down 2.8 baht / kg from the average price of the previous week; The price of cup glue was 44.45 baht / kg, down 2.78 baht / kg month on month. The price of glue in Yunnan is 12100 yuan / ton, and the price of cup glue is 11300 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan / ton and 40 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week; The price of glue in Hainan was 12200 yuan / ton, and the weekly average price was 12320 yuan / ton, down 460 yuan / ton from the previous week.

From the downstream demand: first, from the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, the data statistics show that in the week of September 2, the weekly operating rate of domestic all steel tires was 50.13%, down 5.45% month on month and 24.31% compared with the same period in 2020; The weekly operating rate of semi steel tire was 54.66%, down 3.04% from the previous week and 15.46% from the same period in 2020. On August 26, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team was stationed in Jilin, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan provinces, which is expected to end on September 26. Secondly, from the automobile data, according to the ten day report of key enterprises according to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in August 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 1.711 million, a month on month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%; In terms of categories, the sales of passenger cars decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 43.8% year-on-year. From January to August 2021, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 16.467 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; In terms of categories, the sales of passenger cars increased by 15.1% year-on-year, and the sales of commercial vehicles increased by 5.4% year-on-year.

In terms of inventory, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 225354 tons (+ 5762 tons) as of September 3, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 192480 tons (+ 3700 tons), and the domestic delivery inventory increased; In the previous period, the energy inventory of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipt was 30161 tons, a decrease of 917 tons compared with August 27 and an increase of 284 tons compared with the same period in 2020. The spot inventory in Qingdao continued to decline. It is reported that as of August 27, the total inventory of local natural rubber samples was 459700 tons, a month on month decrease of 9400 tons; Among them, the inventory in the free trade zone was 77600 tons, a month on month decrease of 0200 tons, the general trade inventory was 382100 tons, a month on month decrease of 9200 tons, and the natural rubber in Qingdao port is still in the state of de stocking, and the inventory of natural rubber is accelerated.

In terms of import and export: Tires: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the problem of shipping will continue to affect China’s tire export: according to the analysis, since 2021, the quotation of shipping charges from Qingdao port to the Middle East, America, Europe and other regions has been rising, and Qingdao port to Daman, Saudi Arabia The sea freight for 40 foot containers in Jebel Ali and other ports in Dubai increased from US $3500-360 to US $7700-7800 at the beginning of the year, and the sea freight for Europe and America increased from about US $9000 to US $15000-20000 at the beginning of the year. The Middle East, America and Europe are the regions where domestic tires are intensively exported. The continuous rise of sea freight has increased the export pressure of domestic tire enterprises. Rubber: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 529000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2021, down 24.3% from 699000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to August 2021, China imported 4.348 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 3.5% from 4.508 million tons in the same period in 2020.

As for the future, according to the analysis of the business society, from the macro perspective, the adjustment of the original oil price is over, and in the medium and short term, the oil price is still restricted by the increase of supply and the weakening of demand. At present, it has entered the traditional peak production and marketing season of “golden nine silver ten”, but the weak downstream demand caused by many factors is likely to lead to weak short-term shock of natural rubber; However, driven by the overall traditional consumption peak season, there should be a round of upward prices in the middle and late of the consumption peak season; Then, in the two months at the end of the year, due to the weather, the domestic rubber producing areas will gradually reduce the output, and the rubber price will also strengthen.

Commodity index: on September 5, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 94.96, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.89% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 12.62% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

The monitoring found that the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China showed a slight downward trend last week. On August 30, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1661.11 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the mainstream price was 1756.67 yuan / ton, with a downward rate of 0.25%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring data of business society, the market of hydrochloric acid fell this week. The mainstream quotation was about 296.67 yuan / ton on August 30 and 293.33 yuan / ton on September 5, with a range of – 1.13%. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic mainstream price of LNG rose first and then fell. On August 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 5910 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the mainstream price was 6062.67 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.97%. The quotation from September 1 to 2 is 6110 yuan / ton, the lowest point is 5910 yuan / ton on August 30, and the maximum amplitude is 3.38%.

Downstream demand: at present, the epidemic situation in the water treatment industry and the price of raw materials have changed slightly, and the demand adjustment range is not large. The downstream purchase price is normal, and the demand tends to be stable.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, according to the traditional consumption characteristics, the subsequent market of polyaluminium chloride is more likely to be flat.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7666.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 7200 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 6.09% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from July to September

Isopropanol prices fell at the beginning of the week. Up to now, most of the quotations of isopropanol in Shandong are about 7000-7300 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7100-7200 yuan / ton; The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7100 yuan / ton. Internationally, on August 31, the U.S. isopropanol closed higher, and the European isopropanol market closed higher. The decline of acetone slowed down this week, and the price of isopropanol is expected to stop falling and pick up.

In terms of raw material acetone, the current decline in acetone market has slowed down. According to commodity data monitoring, the average price of acetone was 6400 yuan / ton last Friday and 6300 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 1.56% during the week. At present, there is little fluctuation in the domestic acetone market. Although the market trading atmosphere is cold, the mentality of shippers can maintain range fluctuation, the enthusiasm of terminal follow-up is poor, and the operating rate of downstream plants has declined, and the firm offer is limited.

In terms of raw material propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price was under pressure this week. At the beginning of the week, the market was 7775 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7617 yuan / ton, down 2.04%. Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that crude oil is weak and volatile, and the demand side needs to be improved. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and volatile in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of business society chemical branch believes that the overall demand of domestic isopropanol market is general. The price of propylene decreased, the price of acetone decreased, the support of raw materials for isopropanol was weak, and the price of isopropanol decreased. If the price of raw material acetone stops falling and rebounds next week, the isopropanol market will follow. It is expected that the price of isopropanol will stop falling in the short term. Pay attention to the changes in the news.