According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on August 19, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 9262.5 yuan / ton, up about 40 yuan from 9225 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.41%, 1.37% from the beginning of the month and 41.85% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC market fluctuated slightly this week, and the increase range of enterprises in the week was mostly in the range of 50-100 yuan / ton, with small fluctuation. PVC continued to fluctuate and rise this week. The main reason is still the high raw materials and tight supply in the PVC market, especially the 3 / 8 type. At the same time, the external price is firm and the futures are highly bullish. However, the off-season effect is still dragging PVC up rapidly. On Monday, the PVC market was mixed, but the overall market generally operated steadily; On Tuesday, PVC futures prices soared, boosting the adjustment atmosphere of the spot market. Prices in all mainstream regions generally rose within 50 yuan / ton, but the market transaction atmosphere did not improve synchronously, and the downstream still maintained rigid demand; Since the middle of the week, the PVC market has returned to a stable state. Although the futures price has weakened, the trend of the spot market is still strong.

In terms of spot, at present, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 electric stone in China is mostly around 9150-9500 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9330-9430 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 9300-9450 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9380-9450 yuan / ton; Local market prices rose.

In terms of futures, PVC futures prices rose strongly this week, driving the price rise in the spot market. On August 19, the opening price of v2109 contract: 9310, the highest price: 9420, the lowest price: 9220, the position: 135832, the settlement price: 9315, yesterday’s settlement: 9370, down: 55.

region workmanship 8 / 19 (yuan / ton) 8 / 16 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 9320-9420 9320-9410 0/+10 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 9340-9420 9350-9400 – 10/+20 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 9150-9220 9120-9220 + 30/0 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 9150-9300 9150-9250 0/+50 Delivered

International crude oil, on August 18, the international oil price continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $65.21/barrel, down $1.13 or 1.69%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $68.23/barrel, down $0.80 or 1.20%. Oil prices fell for five consecutive trading days, and WTI crude oil closed at a nearly three-month low. Although the inventory data routinely released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that the decline of U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the general market concern about demand overshadowed the news, and the spread of delta virus cooled demand expectations. In addition, there are signs that the supply of oil producing countries, including the United States, is also increasing.

For ethylene, on August 18, in the American ethylene market, FD American Bay quoted $835-853 / T, down $33 / T. recently, the American ethylene market fell and the demand was average. On August 18, FD northwest Europe quoted $1368-1375 / T, down $2 / T, CIF northwest Europe quoted $1240-1248 / T. on August 18, the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quotation is USD 926-936 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quotation is USD 961-971 / ton. Recently, ethylene prices in Asia are mainly stable. Affected by the decline of upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market in the later stage may mainly fall below.

For calcium carbide, the ex factory price of Northwest calcium carbide was temporarily stable on August 19, and the reference price of calcium carbide was 5266.67, an increase of 2.6% compared with August 1 (5133.33). The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has increased. At the same time, the start of a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia is the main reason for the rise in calcium carbide prices. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, the cost support is strong, and the tight supply of PVC has not changed, which supports the high price of PVC. It is expected that the market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week, and the rise was large. On August 18, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 100200 yuan / ton, which was 4.59% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 95800 yuan / ton on August 15). On August 18, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 105000 yuan / ton, which was 6.06% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 99000 yuan / ton on August 15). On the 18th, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was about 98000 ~ 105000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was about 103000 ~ 111000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate has been rising continuously this week, and the rising range continues to expand, and the prices of many enterprises have been significantly adjusted. Due to the good market demand for low-end electric vehicles in China, the lithium iron phosphate route is favored, and the demand for lithium carbonate is good. In addition, the rapid rise of spodumene price also drives the upward trend of lithium carbonate price. Recently, Ganfeng lithium (002460. SZ), Tianqi lithium (002466. SZ) and Salt Lake shares (000792. SZ) have become popular all the way.

The price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide in the downstream increased again, the downstream demand for gas is still good, the market inquiry atmosphere is positive, the enterprise offer is high, and it is difficult to find a source of low-cost goods. In terms of lithium iron phosphate, at present, the mainstream quotation range of lithium iron phosphate power type is 51000-55000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 46000-49500 yuan / ton. The lithium iron phosphate Market has increased steadily, and the operation is stable, medium and strong in the short term.

On August 17, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 246.11, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.25% from the highest point 405.10 in the cycle (2018-01-07), and up 149.76% from the lowest point 98.54 on October 16, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, at present, the supply of some lithium carbonate enterprises is relatively scarce. They suspend external quotation and mostly focus on price negotiation at the end of the month. Therefore, the price may still have room to rise. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may continue to rise in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of August 15, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 4662.50 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.27% from 4675.00 yuan / ton on August 9.

On August 15, the fuel oil commodity index was 94.43, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.53% from the highest point of 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 104.93% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The decline of domestic marine oil raw materials has limited support for the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of August 15, the quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan was 4550 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 4650 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4650 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 4750 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices fluctuated, mainly due to the demand concerns caused by the repeated epidemic, the continuous spread of delta virus, the serious impact on the world’s major economies, the restart of restrictive measures in many countries, and the serious pressure on demand. IEA lowered its forecast of global oil demand for the rest of 2021 and predicted that supply will exceed demand again in 2022.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of August 11, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 128000 barrels to a two-week high of 22.566 million barrels.

Future forecast: energy analysts of business society believe that the recent international crude oil price shock, the continued weak trend of marine oil market, low demand, no obvious favorable transactions, and some businesses give up profits for promotion, but the overall market transactions are relatively few, the market trading is light, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the demand is dominated. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will operate weakly in the near future.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (August 16): 3210.00 yuan / ton

On August 16, the mixed price of potassium chloride in Qinghai was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on August 13. The demand for international potash fertilizer is strong, and the available supply of domestic potash fertilizer is tight. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. At the same time, the delivery of international potash fertilizer suppliers is delayed and the arrival at the port is limited.

Recently, the price of potassium chloride in Qinghai may fluctuate slightly, and the quotation is about 3200-3300 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 3400 yuan / ton on August 9 and 3600 yuan / ton on August 15. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 5.88% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3526 yuan / ton on August 9 and 3590 yuan / ton on August 15. The price of diammonium phosphate increased by 1.8% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate rose this week, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 70%, down from last week. The price of monoammonium phosphate is still high, supported by the price of raw materials, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The units of some enterprises were shut down for maintenance, and the demand for monoammonium decreased in the later stage. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3500-3600 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3800 yuan / ton.

The price of diammonium phosphate rose this week, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 60%, up from last week. The enterprise has a large waiting volume, tight supply and good downstream demand. The factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, and that of 64% mainstream diammonium in North China is about 3600-3700 yuan / ton.

This week, the overall domestic market of raw phosphorus ore continued to operate at a high level and stably. At present, the market operating rate in Guizhou is low and the supply of phosphate rock is tight. It is heard that mining enterprises still have the intention to increase slightly in the later stage. At present, the price direction is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that the current ammonium phosphate Market is good and the price is always high when the raw material price is stable. Favorable cost support and tight supply. At present, the demand for monoammonium is weakened and the demand for diammonium continues to improve. It is expected that monoammonium will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term, and diammonium may continue to rise.