1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market rose in late May. As of June 1, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle samples was 3066.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.37% compared with the average price at the beginning of May, and an increase of 13.15% compared with the same period last year.

The current price position of potassium sulfate is the accumulation of positive market from March to early April. At present, the domestic potassium sulfate price range is relatively high. Since May, it has been mainly in a horizontal stalemate. In late April, the domestic potassium sulfate spot price has increased significantly. In the whole of May, the domestic potassium sulfate Mannheim plant load adjustment was limited, which was generally flat, with an average start-up rate of more than 70%. Shijiazhuang hehe chemical 52% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price of 3200 yuan / ton. Shijiazhuang Haofang chemical 50% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price of 3000 yuan / ton, the manufacturer mainly to meet the early orders. Hebei Gaoqiao agricultural potassium sulfate 52% powder factory reference price of 3300 yuan / ton. In terms of raw material potassium chloride, the market was sideways in May, and the actual transaction was not good. On the whole, there is a certain contradiction between supply and demand of potassium chloride, the market atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just needed, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. In the first ten days of June, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The domestic potash fertilizer market rose at the end of the month, which was good for the potassium sulfate Market. However, the demand side reaction is general, and the consumption is not large.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency potassium sulfate analysts believe: potassium chloride prices stable in May. The price of potassium nitrate has risen, and the domestic potassium sulfate cost support is acceptable. At the same time, the cost side and the external price play a role in the market, and the producers and traders actively support the price. However, the market atmosphere is not good, the fluency of trading is not ideal, and the end users have a weak response to the rise of potassium sulfate supply. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will continue to adjust in a narrow range in the near future.

Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic ABS market rose and fell in May, and most brands of products fell. As of June 1, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 18050 yuan / ton, which was 1.77% lower than the average price in early May and 43.83% higher than that in the same period of last year.

Factor analysis:

As for raw material styrene, the domestic Styrene Market in the first half of May fluctuated upward driven by cost support and tight spot supply, and the spot remained strong. After twists and turns in the international crude oil market, the high level fell in the second half of the month, pure benzene and ethylene fell, and the cost support weakened immediately. With the end of styrene paper delivery in May, the market is expected to buy gas down. Although the domestic styrene operation rate rose and the styrene supply increased, the wharf inventory was low, the wharf accumulation was slow, and the spot supply was tight. Recently, the output of new devices such as Huatai Shengfu and SINOCHEM Hongrun has been released and the arrival of imported goods. The tight spot situation will be eased in the later stage, and the downstream demand will be temporarily stable. It is expected that the styrene market will still be in the shock consolidation stage after a rapid rise and fall in the short term.

For upstream butadiene, the domestic butadiene market was mainly consolidated in the first half of May. Business intention to stabilize the price offer, the downstream inquiry weak, there are some low price transaction in the market, dragging the market. In the second half of the month, the positive external market was gradually released, driving up the spot price in northern China. But at the end of the month, some production lines were restarted, putting pressure on domestic supply. In addition, the lower synthetic rubber industry is weak, resulting in high price source transaction resistance still exists. Short term domestic butadiene demand will continue, just need to follow up, business community butadiene analysts are expected to continue to collate the market.

In May, the price of ABS cost side was mixed, and the overall support for ABS cost side was weakened. In the near future, the market is dominated by bad external market, which has a drag on the domestic spot price. The positive effect of centralized maintenance on the supply side is gradually exhausted. At present, ABS is in the off-season of traditional consumption, and it is difficult to open the situation of lack of demand. Downstream enterprises just need to reduce, buy up do not buy down mentality, weaken trading momentum. At present, there are still some devices in the industry to be overhauled, which may affect the spot price in some areas, but the market as a whole is short, so the expected response of the supply side may not be obvious.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS spot market overall fell in May, the price position fell below the price level in early May. The trend of raw materials is mixed. Generally speaking, it is bad for ABS cost side. At present, the ABS industry is in the off-season, and the resistance of on-site shipment is increasing. Superimposed on the external market is also bad led, it is expected that the recent ABS spot market may continue to be short.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (May 31): 4283.33 yuan / ton

On May 31, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell by 133.34 yuan / ton, or 3.02%, compared with the quotation on May 28. The price of raw material blue carbon fell sharply, and the support of calcium carbide cost weakened. The downstream PVC market has also started to decline slightly recently, and the maintenance of devices has increased, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has declined.

It is expected that the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will fluctuate slightly in the future: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 4100 yuan / ton.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price of p-xylene remained stable in May. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6400 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The price trend of domestic PX market was stable in may.

In May, the domestic supply of p-xylene was normal, and the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was in stable operation, the Yangzi Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit was in stable operation, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was in normal operation, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, the Qingdao Lidong unit was in full load operation, and the Qilu Petrochemical Unit was in stable operation, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. However, the start-up of overseas plants is general, and the domestic price of p-xylene remains high. Recently, the international crude oil price was above US $65 / barrel, and the trend of PX external price remained volatile. As of the 27th, the closing prices in Asia were US $827-829 / T FOB South Korea and US $845-847 / T CFR China. Recently, the operation rate of PX unit in Asia was normal. As a whole, the operation rate of p-toluene unit in Asia was less than 60%, and the supply of PX in Asia was general, PX external closing price remained high, affected by the external price, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable.

International crude oil prices continued to rise in May. Although the epidemic situation is still severe, the death toll in India has declined in recent days, further enhancing the expectation of oil demand recovery. The market generally believes that even if Iran may restart its crude oil export in the future, which will bring some risks to global supply, with the acceleration of vaccination process, global demand will continue to increase, which will not affect the oil price to maintain an upward trend. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC + and its allies to stop increasing production for two months in the second half of 2021 to offset the increase in Iranian output. According to the statement of Goldman Sachs, we can understand that the future growth is still certain, and the risk of increasing fuel supply in the future may be suppressed based on the OPEC + production control policy. As of May 27, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $66.85/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $69.46/barrel. The sharp rise of crude oil price in May is good for domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

In May, the price trend of downstream PTA market declined slightly. As of the 28th, the average price of PTA market was 4650-4750 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.72% in May. In the middle of May, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, PTA supply showed an upward trend, and the price trend in the market fell. As of May 27, the operating rate was around 83%, with a month on month increase of about 5%, and the price continued to decline slightly. In terms of demand, the downstream polyester market is flat. The polyester production and sales of mainstream factories are concentrated in 30% – 60%, and some better manufacturers can do flat. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 12-25 days, of which POY inventory is 9-21 days, FDY inventory is about 12-16 days, and DTY inventory is about 15-28 days. The price of downstream textile industry was mainly stable, PTA price fell slightly in May, but the overall demand of downstream was poor, and the price trend of p-xylene market was temporarily stable.

PX analyst Chen Ling believes that there is a certain positive support for the current crude oil cost, and the short-term crude oil price will maintain an upward trend, but the performance of downstream polyester is not warm, and the PTA new device is expected to be put into production, and the textile industry is in the off-season of sales, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will rise slightly in the later period boosted by crude oil.

According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on May 28 was 38.88, down 0.12 points from yesterday, down 61.12% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 42.52% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Figure 2: weekly trend of natural rubber mainstream price from May 24 to 28, 2021

Data monitoring shows that during the week of May 24-28, 2021, the overall fluctuation range of natural rubber domestic all latex market is very small: the mainstream price on Monday (24) is 13125 yuan / ton, and the main price on Friday (28) is 13112.5 yuan / ton. Among them, the highest price of this week is 13200 yuan / ton on Wednesday (26), and the lowest price is 13112.5 yuan / ton on Friday (28), with the maximum amplitude of only 0.66%. According to the analysis, the market around 13000 yuan / ton in the middle of this month was actively buying, which pushed the natural rubber market into a stable period.

From the perspective of new rubber output, at present, the main natural rubber producing areas in China have normal cutting, and the supply pressure is increasing. Globally, ANRPC’s latest report shows that global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 22.5% to 903000 tons in April 2021. Among them, Thailand increased by 26.5%, Indonesia by 2.8%, Vietnam by 100% and Malaysia by 9.8%. Global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 15.1% to 1.129 million tons in April. Among them, China increased by 9.2%, India by 915%, Thailand by 2.4% and Malaysia by 15.8%. Among them, the main producer Thailand’s export volume of natural rubber in April increased by 34% year on year and decreased by 20% month on month.

From the perspective of downstream demand and the situation of tire manufacturers, may is the traditional peak of tire supply. Statistics show that the operating rate of manufacturers in this month is lower than that of last month, and the decline is more than expected. As of May 20, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 62.52%, with a decrease of 6.08 percentage points per week and 2.83 percentage points per week on a year-on-year basis; The operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises was 60.98%, with a decrease of 3.75 percentage points per week and 2.27 percentage points per week. According to automobile data, China’s automobile production and sales in April were 2.234 million and 2.252 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 9.3% and 10.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 8.6%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 8.586 million and 8.748 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 53.4% and 51.8% respectively. The growth rate dropped by 28.3 percentage points and 23.8 percentage points from January to March. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales increased by 2.1% and 4.5% respectively, 2.1 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points higher than that from January to March. From the data of commercial vehicles, from January to April, the production and sales of domestic commercial vehicles were 1.918 million and 1.956 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47% and 47.3% respectively. However, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial vehicle production and sales fell to 1.2% and 2.3% in April, and the demand support weakened. Foreign: Vietnam: according to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in the first quarter of 2021, Vietnam’s rubber exports reached 674 million US dollars (4.32 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 103%. In the first quarter, the average price of rubber export also increased by 14% year on year, reaching US $1660 / T (RMB 10640 / T). Vietnam Rubber Association official said that the main reason for the increase in latex prices is mainly affected by COVID-19, and the supply of multinational goods is decreasing. Except for China, at present, the import volume of us rubber from Vietnam increases, while that from Thailand and Indonesia decreases, because Vietnam has enough manpower to cut rubber. This is an opportunity for Vietnam to expand its market and increase its exports.

From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 179866 tons (+ 910 tons) as of May 28, and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 176460 tons (- 210 tons). As of May 24, the inventory in Qingdao free trade zone was 98700 tons, a month on month decrease of 5.35%; General trade warehouse inventory was 52.17 tons, a month on month decrease of 3.89%, continuing the trend of destocking.

In terms of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 7, China imported 577000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2021, an increase of 15.6% year on year. From January to April 2021, China imported 2.367 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 9.7% compared with 2.158 million tons in the same period of 2020. Cambodia: according to the report released by the Ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, Cambodia’s rubber export volume in the first four months of this year decreased by 15% to 61056 tons, compared with 71749 tons in the same period last year. Rubber export revenue reached US $99.87 million, up 2.5% from US $97.43 million last year. Ivory Coast: according to the preliminary port data released on May 4, in the first quarter of 2021, Ivory Coast’s rubber exports totaled 242621 tons, down about 30% from 346135 tons in the same period of 2020. Vietnam: according to the preliminary data released by the Ministry of industry and trade, Vietnam’s rubber export volume in April 2021 was about 80000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 92%; The export value was about 143 million US dollars, up 169% year on year. From January to April, the total export volume of rubber was about 486000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 80%; The total export value was about 817 million US dollars, an increase of about 112% year on year. Thailand: according to the Thai world daily, the rubber export industry recently revealed that the rubber export trend in 2021 has greatly improved. The latest data from the Ministry of Commerce showed that the rubber export volume in March was 349000 tons, an increase of 65.5%, and the value was 587 million US dollars, an increase of 109.2%. In the first quarter, the export volume of rubber was 870000 tons, up 10.7%, with a value of US $1.44 billion, up 38.1%. In particular, the demand of China’s market ranked first, accounting for 32% of the export share, and the demand for rubber increased by 17%; The second is Malaysia, Japan and the United States; India’s market demand increased by 127%, and rubber products also increased by 32.5%.

From the perspective of industry hotspots, first of all, the lack of core is serious: according to Thai media report on May 9, due to the shortage of global chip supply chain, Thailand’s auto production in 2021 is expected to decrease by 40000 vehicles year on year, and auto manufacturers must adjust the chip supply structure to meet long-term demand. Since the end of 2020, the global automobile industry has been facing the shortage of microchips, especially the important components of electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assistance system and airbag system, which has led to the production interruption of many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world. Second, on May 25, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the final verdict on the anti-dumping of semi steel tires imported from South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. The result of this year’s final ruling is generally better than that of last year’s preliminary ruling. Among them, the area with the most obvious decline is Taiwan, China. The “double anti” tax of a few brands has increased, but the increase is small. Compared with the results of last year’s preliminary determination, the anti-dumping duties of Linglong tire and Zhengxin tire have been reduced. Among them, Zhengxin tire decreased by more than 61%. The final result of the round is the same as that of the preliminary round, and the export to the U.S. market is not affected by “double reverse”. Third, the lack of core affects the global automobile industry. The report said that since the end of 2020, the global automobile industry has been facing a shortage of microchips, especially microcontrollers, which are important components in electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assistance system and airbag system, resulting in the production interruption of many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world. In the second half of the year, the global chip shortage will be alleviated temporarily. However, in the long run, solving the structural problems in the supply chain of automobile chips will still be the main challenge for automobile manufacturers.

As for the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the analysis of the business community shows that from a macro perspective, the new crowns pneumonia outbreak and the virus mutation are more worrying. Many countries implement the policy of fighting against the epidemic situation. The recovery of economic activities is delayed or canceled due to health considerations, and economic development is bound to be deeply affected. Secondly, the commodity market is very sensitive to the changes of global politics, economy and other forms, and has great uncertainty in the current international situation. From the industrial point of view, natural rubber is now in the normal annual supply period. Although the supply in Southeast Asia will be affected by the epidemic, the overall pressure on the supply side of natural rubber is still increasing, and the global automobile demand is deeply affected by the economy and the epidemic. The purchasing demand of downstream tire enterprises for rubber is declining due to the decline of tire market demand, Although the domestic natural rubber is in the stage of destocking, the overall weak demand leads to the weak follow-up support of natural rubber. Taking into account the fact that there is a lot of buying around 13000 yuan / ton of HuJiao, it is more likely that natural rubber will fluctuate in the range of 1000 yuan / ton.