According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on August 19, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 9262.5 yuan / ton, up about 40 yuan from 9225 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.41%, 1.37% from the beginning of the month and 41.85% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
The PVC market fluctuated slightly this week, and the increase range of enterprises in the week was mostly in the range of 50-100 yuan / ton, with small fluctuation. PVC continued to fluctuate and rise this week. The main reason is still the high raw materials and tight supply in the PVC market, especially the 3 / 8 type. At the same time, the external price is firm and the futures are highly bullish. However, the off-season effect is still dragging PVC up rapidly. On Monday, the PVC market was mixed, but the overall market generally operated steadily; On Tuesday, PVC futures prices soared, boosting the adjustment atmosphere of the spot market. Prices in all mainstream regions generally rose within 50 yuan / ton, but the market transaction atmosphere did not improve synchronously, and the downstream still maintained rigid demand; Since the middle of the week, the PVC market has returned to a stable state. Although the futures price has weakened, the trend of the spot market is still strong.
In terms of spot, at present, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 electric stone in China is mostly around 9150-9500 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9330-9430 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 9300-9450 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9380-9450 yuan / ton; Local market prices rose.
In terms of futures, PVC futures prices rose strongly this week, driving the price rise in the spot market. On August 19, the opening price of v2109 contract: 9310, the highest price: 9420, the lowest price: 9220, the position: 135832, the settlement price: 9315, yesterday’s settlement: 9370, down: 55.
region workmanship 8 / 19 (yuan / ton) 8 / 16 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks
East China Calcium carbide method 9320-9420 9320-9410 0/+10 Ex warehouse
south China Calcium carbide method 9340-9420 9350-9400 – 10/+20 Ex warehouse
North China Calcium carbide method 9150-9220 9120-9220 + 30/0 Delivered
southwest Calcium carbide method 9150-9300 9150-9250 0/+50 Delivered
International crude oil, on August 18, the international oil price continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was $65.21/barrel, down $1.13 or 1.69%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $68.23/barrel, down $0.80 or 1.20%. Oil prices fell for five consecutive trading days, and WTI crude oil closed at a nearly three-month low. Although the inventory data routinely released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that the decline of U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the general market concern about demand overshadowed the news, and the spread of delta virus cooled demand expectations. In addition, there are signs that the supply of oil producing countries, including the United States, is also increasing.
For ethylene, on August 18, in the American ethylene market, FD American Bay quoted $835-853 / T, down $33 / T. recently, the American ethylene market fell and the demand was average. On August 18, FD northwest Europe quoted $1368-1375 / T, down $2 / T, CIF northwest Europe quoted $1240-1248 / T. on August 18, the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quotation is USD 926-936 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quotation is USD 961-971 / ton. Recently, ethylene prices in Asia are mainly stable. Affected by the decline of upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market in the later stage may mainly fall below.
For calcium carbide, the ex factory price of Northwest calcium carbide was temporarily stable on August 19, and the reference price of calcium carbide was 5266.67, an increase of 2.6% compared with August 1 (5133.33). The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has increased. At the same time, the start of a new round of power rationing in Inner Mongolia is the main reason for the rise in calcium carbide prices. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, the cost support is strong, and the tight supply of PVC has not changed, which supports the high price of PVC. It is expected that the market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range.
| Thiourea |