Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market continued to rise rapidly in early March, and the spot prices of various brands continued to rise significantly. As of March 3, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade sample enterprises was about 38100 yuan / ton, some of which were flat with the historical high, and the rising atmosphere in the market remained.

Cause analysis

There is no improvement in the pattern of tight supply of raw materials. The impact of crude oil, chemical and other enterprises shutdown caused by the cold disaster in the United States and the earthquake in Japan is still in the process. PA66 and its industrial chain related products are seriously affected by force majeure, and the global production capacity of adiponitrile and hexanediamine continues to be low. The operation rate of adipic acid also declined, and the market supply was relatively tight. Some East China dealers reflected that they could not get the supply. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not big. Thanks to the centralized replenishment after the year, the pressure on the supply side has been released, and the prices of manufacturers have been rising frequently.

The upstream trend is strong, and China’s dependence on imported adiponitrile is relatively high. The current market price range of PA66 has been flat with the historical high. PA66 products such as Pingdingshan Shenma and Huafeng Group, which are big domestic manufacturers, have stopped quotation, mainly completed the early orders, and there is no pressure on inventory. The prices on the floor continued to rise, the dealers were reluctant to sell, and the operation was cautious. Downstream demand is dominated by rigid demand procurement, and the shortage of non major customer factories may be even worse. Spot spot spot less, lead time growth, rising atmosphere is still strong

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: the current domestic market of PA66 continues to rise sharply, and the prices of polymerization plants and carriers continue to rise. The price of upstream hexanediamine and adipic acid is high, and PA66 has strong cost support. The resumption of work in the lower reaches started relatively fast, and the passive follow-up of taking goods resulted in the recovery of demand in some industries. At present, the cost pressure of PA66 makes the price of PA66 remain high, and the rising atmosphere fills the market. In the short term, PA66 market guidance is clear, or will continue to be strong upward.

The market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose in February. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11360 yuan / ton at the beginning of February, and rose to 13060 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 14.96% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. In February, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber manufacturers increased for many times, and the market price rose rapidly.

In February, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was general. During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of downstream tire factories dropped sharply, which was basically within 30% of the festival. After the festival, the operating rate rose slowly. Some manufacturers began to work gradually after January 16 to increase the load, and the overall purchasing of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak.

The overall supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in February is not loose, and the supply is expected to decline in the later period. According to the business news agency, the Shunding unit of Sichuan Petrochemical Company was temporarily shut down for maintenance in February, and the Shunding units of Qilu, Maoming, Daqing and Dushanzi were normally started. In the later March, the Shunding units of Yanshan and Maoming had a shutdown and maintenance plan, and the overall supply side was expected to be tight, forming a support for the Shunding rubber.

In February, the price of butadiene, the raw material of cis-1,4-polybutadiene, rose sharply, and the cost side was more supportive of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene was 6056 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8235 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 35.98%.

Future forecast: business community analysts believe that the overall synthetic rubber industry chain rose sharply in February, the current international crude oil price adjustment at the end of the month, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may face a small adjustment in the short term. Later, with the increase of downstream operation rate, the demand side will support cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, the supply side is expected to be tight. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to dominate after the adjustment.

On March 1, 2021, there were 3 kinds of commodities that rose, 0 kinds of commodities that fell, and 4 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. Rising products include hydrofluoric acid, R22 and chloroform; stable products include fluorite, R134a, aluminum fluoride and cryolite.

On March 1, the price of fluorite in the fluorine chemical raw material market rose. The price of fluorite was 2761.11 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite remained at a high level. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started generally, and some mines and flotation plants stopped. The fluorite supply in the plant was tight. However, the downstream market was stable in the near future, and the rise of fluorite price was limited. As of January 1, the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

Recently, the price of some downstream refrigerants has risen, and the operating rate remains low. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the normal supply on the site, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has risen slightly. As of January 1, the quoted price of hydrofluoric acid market is 10611.11 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the current market situation is stable The supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal. Recently, the market of hydrofluoric acid on the market is general. The ex factory price of some enterprises is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, people on the market reflect that it is difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to rise sharply in the near future. Business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market of hydrofluoric acid may remain volatile.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been rising. The overall demand of the downstream market has not changed much. The demand for trichloromethane is general. As the downstream market begins to stock up, the market price of trichloromethane has risen slightly. At present, the start-up of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipping situation of enterprises is flat. In order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, enterprises bid for shipping. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 3000-3100 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerant R22 rose, the price of raw material chloroform rose slightly, and the cost support was general. Recently, the downstream gradually began to stock up, the demand side rose, and the market center rose slightly. Due to the stable price trend of hydrofluoric acid, the price of some affected refrigerants rose. The price trend of R134a is mainly stable and the market is relatively strong. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was mainly volatile.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride rose this week. The average price of mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride this week rose from 2140.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2155.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.70%. Overall, the potassium chloride market rose this week, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 68.41 on February 26.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers Rose: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was 2050 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the distribution quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride at the weekend was 2260 yuan / ton, which was increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose sharply after the Spring Festival (2.11-2.26). As of February 26, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7931 yuan / ton, 16.67% higher than the price of 6798 before the Spring Festival, and 14.43% higher than the same period last year. The quotation of all manufacturers has been greatly increased by 1000-1200 yuan / ton. In the futures market, on February 26, the main short fiber Futures (2105) closed at 8362, up 1218 or 17.05% from 7144 before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the international oil price fluctuated and soared, which led to the sharp rise of PTA and glycol prices. The cost rose sharply, the device was shut down for maintenance, the downstream goods were prepared after the festival, and the polyester staple fiber spot and futures showed a significant rise. However, due to the lack of full operation after the festival, although the production and sales continued to increase, most of them were engaged in arbitrage. The downstream factories were well stocked, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high prices was not high. There might be short-term adjustment demand for polyester staple fiber.

2、 Factors affecting price

1. PTA: after the Spring Festival, the domestic PTA spot market showed a sharp rise. On February 26, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 4730 yuan / ton, up 17.30% compared with that before the Spring Festival and 7.96% year on year. During the Spring Festival, affected by the cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased, the agency raised the oil price expectation, and the crude oil rebounded strongly, reaching a new high in nearly 13 months, which strengthened the support for PTA cost. Downstream polyester and weaving enterprises have resumed production, and the demand recovery is optimistic. We need to pay attention to the situation of OPEC + meeting in the later stage, and it is expected that the short-term PTA price oscillation is relatively strong.

2. Ethylene glycol: after the Spring Festival, the domestic ethylene glycol futures and spot markets rose sharply. On February 26, the average ex factory price of oil made ethylene glycol in North China was 6050 yuan / ton, up 25.61% compared with that before the Spring Festival and 34.44% compared with that before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the United States was affected by extreme weather, and many units stopped unexpectedly, resulting in a tight supply side. International oil prices and glycol prices continued to rise sharply. After the festival, the downstream demand situation in the domestic market is also relatively optimistic, the spot price of ethylene glycol soars, the profit of coal based ethylene glycol is prominent, and the production load of manufacturers is increased. At present, the market sentiment is positive and still bullish in the short term.

3. Polyester yarn: after the Spring Festival, a number of pure polyester yarn enterprises raised their prices. This weekend, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 14933 yuan / ton, up 5.41% and 2.81% compared with that before the Spring Festival. As of February 25, the price of pure polyester yarn of Weifang runfengda textile increased significantly, with the price of 32S pure polyester yarn increasing by 1000 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival; the price of pure polyester yarn of Weifang Guanjie textile increased significantly, with the price of 32S pure polyester yarn increasing by 1000 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival; the price of pure polyester yarn of Weifang Honghua textile increased slightly, with the price of 32S pure polyester yarn increasing by 14800 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival The price of Nantong Suzhong textile increased by 300 yuan / ton in February, and the price of 32S pure polyester yarn reached 15000 yuan / ton by the 25th, which was 1200 yuan / ton higher than that in January; the price of Gaoyi Delida textile increased by 1100 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, business community analysts believe that since the Spring Festival in 2021, crude oil and PTA have continued to rise, which obviously supports the cost of polyester staple fiber. However, the short-term rise has increased the risk of market adjustment. Downstream weaving enterprises are cautious in placing orders, with more inquiries, and orders have not improved significantly. In the future, short-term crude oil needs to pay attention to the OPEC + meeting on March 4, PTA needs to pay attention to the maintenance and commissioning of new units. Short term polyester staple may be slightly adjusted. Caution is recommended.