1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose sharply after the Spring Festival (2.11-2.26). As of February 26, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7931 yuan / ton, 16.67% higher than the price of 6798 before the Spring Festival, and 14.43% higher than the same period last year. The quotation of all manufacturers has been greatly increased by 1000-1200 yuan / ton. In the futures market, on February 26, the main short fiber Futures (2105) closed at 8362, up 1218 or 17.05% from 7144 before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the international oil price fluctuated and soared, which led to the sharp rise of PTA and glycol prices. The cost rose sharply, the device was shut down for maintenance, the downstream goods were prepared after the festival, and the polyester staple fiber spot and futures showed a significant rise. However, due to the lack of full operation after the festival, although the production and sales continued to increase, most of them were engaged in arbitrage. The downstream factories were well stocked, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high prices was not high. There might be short-term adjustment demand for polyester staple fiber.
2、 Factors affecting price
1. PTA: after the Spring Festival, the domestic PTA spot market showed a sharp rise. On February 26, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 4730 yuan / ton, up 17.30% compared with that before the Spring Festival and 7.96% year on year. During the Spring Festival, affected by the cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased, the agency raised the oil price expectation, and the crude oil rebounded strongly, reaching a new high in nearly 13 months, which strengthened the support for PTA cost. Downstream polyester and weaving enterprises have resumed production, and the demand recovery is optimistic. We need to pay attention to the situation of OPEC + meeting in the later stage, and it is expected that the short-term PTA price oscillation is relatively strong.
2. Ethylene glycol: after the Spring Festival, the domestic ethylene glycol futures and spot markets rose sharply. On February 26, the average ex factory price of oil made ethylene glycol in North China was 6050 yuan / ton, up 25.61% compared with that before the Spring Festival and 34.44% compared with that before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the United States was affected by extreme weather, and many units stopped unexpectedly, resulting in a tight supply side. International oil prices and glycol prices continued to rise sharply. After the festival, the downstream demand situation in the domestic market is also relatively optimistic, the spot price of ethylene glycol soars, the profit of coal based ethylene glycol is prominent, and the production load of manufacturers is increased. At present, the market sentiment is positive and still bullish in the short term.
3. Polyester yarn: after the Spring Festival, a number of pure polyester yarn enterprises raised their prices. This weekend, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 14933 yuan / ton, up 5.41% and 2.81% compared with that before the Spring Festival. As of February 25, the price of pure polyester yarn of Weifang runfengda textile increased significantly, with the price of 32S pure polyester yarn increasing by 1000 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival; the price of pure polyester yarn of Weifang Guanjie textile increased significantly, with the price of 32S pure polyester yarn increasing by 1000 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival; the price of pure polyester yarn of Weifang Honghua textile increased slightly, with the price of 32S pure polyester yarn increasing by 14800 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival The price of Nantong Suzhong textile increased by 300 yuan / ton in February, and the price of 32S pure polyester yarn reached 15000 yuan / ton by the 25th, which was 1200 yuan / ton higher than that in January; the price of Gaoyi Delida textile increased by 1100 yuan / ton compared with that before the Spring Festival.
3、 Future forecast
In the future, business community analysts believe that since the Spring Festival in 2021, crude oil and PTA have continued to rise, which obviously supports the cost of polyester staple fiber. However, the short-term rise has increased the risk of market adjustment. Downstream weaving enterprises are cautious in placing orders, with more inquiries, and orders have not improved significantly. In the future, short-term crude oil needs to pay attention to the OPEC + meeting on March 4, PTA needs to pay attention to the maintenance and commissioning of new units. Short term polyester staple may be slightly adjusted. Caution is recommended.
| Thiourea |