According to the price monitoring of business news agency, on February 9, the average price of sulfur production in East China was 1143.33 yuan / ton, up 3.94% in a single day. In February, the sulfur market continued to improve, and the price rose strongly, up 6.85% in a month. At present, the domestic solid sulfur price is 910-1280 yuan / ton.

 

As of February 9, the regional price of sulfur in China is as follows:

9 Feb 2005

1200-1280 yuan / ton sulfur (particle) in East China

Sulfur (particle) 910-960 yuan / ton in North China

Sulfur (particle) 1060-1090 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

 

According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of February 9, the domestic price of monoammonium phosphate was about 2134 yuan / ton, with a slight rise in the month; the average production price of diammonium phosphate was 2490 yuan / ton, with a high price. In terms of domestic diammonium phosphate, the international market demand is improving, and the port inventory is increasing. Statistics show that the port inventory increased by about 17800 tons last weekend compared with seven days ago. In the domestic market, the enterprises mainly delivered early orders, the market arrival volume is low, and the on-site supply is tight. Coupled with the strong international demand, the diammonium phosphate market continues to have a strong trend in the later period, which has a positive impact on the sulfur market.

 

The domestic sulfur continues to rise, the demand of downstream phosphate fertilizer industry is stable, driven by the port spot market, the refinery prices in various regions of the country are stable and upward, plus the manufacturers’ inventory is low, and the shipment is smooth, the external market is tight, the price is high, and the market supporting attitude is obvious. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to consolidate strongly after the festival.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable this week, with no weekly rise or fall or weekly amplitude at 7068 yuan / ton.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January. After a slight rebound at the end of the month, it began to be stable. Today, the price of individual enterprises rose, but the overall price was stable. The market transaction was between 7000-7350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is too high, and the shipment situation is a little cold.

 

Crude oil prices rose slightly on February 4, with limited impact on propylene.

 

This week, the spot price of PP was stable after a small rise, with a weekly increase of 0.40%. The PP futures market was slightly cold, with a slight negative impact on propylene.

 

Acrylic acid market rose in the second half of this week, with a weekly increase of 1.41%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

 

This week, the market of propylene oxide rebounded after going down, with a weekly decline of 0.40% and a weekly amplitude of 1.19%, which had little impact on propylene.

 

Epichlorohydrin has been stable this week and has no effect on propylene.

 

This week, the domestic n-butanol price continued to rise, with a weekly increase of 3.13%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

 

This week, the market of isooctanol was obviously up, with a weekly increase of 5.65%, which had a certain pulling effect on propylene.

 

Isopropanol market plummeted this week, with a weekly decline of 4.23%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

 

This week, phenol in East China remained stable, with no rise or fall and no impact on propylene.

 

This week, acetone in East China fell slightly and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 1.23%, which was slightly negative for propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The propylene analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: Generally speaking, there is a certain pressure on the current inventory, the rise of crude oil price is slowing down, the downstream market is mainly on the lookout, the purchase intention before the festival is general, and the positive is slightly more than the negative. Therefore, it is expected that the future market of propylene will be mainly stable and volatile in the near future, not excluding the possibility of a small upward trend.

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India’s new annual potash fertilizer contract was signed at the end of January. Belarusian potash fertilizer company and Indian potash fertilizer company IPL signed a contract to supply potash fertilizer to India, planning to supply 800000 tons of potash fertilizer to the Indian market. Compared with the price of 230 US dollars / ton signed in May 2020, the price has increased by 17 US dollars / ton, and the CIF price is 247 US dollars / ton. The news added to the wait-and-see mood in the domestic potash fertilizer market.

 

The domestic potassium sulfate Market as a whole did not change significantly, and the factory price continued to be strong, basically continuing the previous price. In terms of operating rate, affected by the recent epidemic in Hebei Province, the operating rate of Mannheim factory has dropped to about 40%, while that in Shandong Province has increased to about 75% – 80%. According to the business agency’s test, the ex factory price of 50% powdered Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2650 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 50% granulated Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2725 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last week.

 

At present, the production of sdic-l-k is normal, mainly based on the pre shipment orders, and the arrival price of 52% powder is about 2750 yuan / ton. Qinghai water salt system manufacturers start limited, 50% of the powder to the station price is 2600 yuan / ton.

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According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of lithium carbonate is still rising recently, and the price of electric carbon of some dealers has reached 80000 yuan / ton. On February 3, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 71200 yuan / ton, which was 4.4% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 68200 yuan / ton on January 31). On February 3, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 76000 yuan / ton, which was 4.97% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 72400 yuan / ton on January 31). On March 3, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 65000-75000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was around 70000-80000 yuan / ton.

 

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate is still in an upward trend before the Spring Festival holiday. At present, large lithium salt factories in Jiangxi and Sichuan have stopped production one after another, and most lithium salt factories have stopped quoting. But the price is still in the market-oriented state, so the shipping price continues to rise. At present, the lithium carbonate market is very bullish. In addition, there are more maintenance of lithium carbonate enterprises in February, which may have an impact on the production and supply in February. Therefore, the market inquiry and locking up in advance before the festival are increasing. And the logistics outage is more, which will also make the recent transport costs will increase significantly, driving the overall price up.

 

The market of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in the lower reaches is running strongly. At present, the lower reaches are preparing goods before the festival, increasing inquiries, and increasing demand. The operators have no intention to lower down, and the focus of market negotiation is moving up. In terms of lithium iron phosphate power market, due to the rapid rise of lithium carbonate price, the price adjustment frequency of lithium iron enterprises has also been increased, the quotation of merchants is firm, the rising psychology still exists, the business starts normally, and the merchants ship actively.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the lithium carbonate commodity index on February 2 was 178.34, up 3.56 points from yesterday, down 55.98% from 405.10 points (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 80.98% from 98.54 points, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

 

Lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency believe that with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the fluctuation range of lithium carbonate price may gradually slow down, and for some enterprises with higher quotations, the price will also remain until the end of February. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain at a high level before the Spring Festival, while the price of lithium carbonate may still rise after the festival.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on January 31, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 7175 yuan / ton, down 1.98% compared with 7320 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 5.13% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In January, the PVC market was depressed first and then rose, with a watershed in the middle of the month and a decrease of about 2% in the whole month. The price fluctuated little. In January, the off-season demand is expected to weaken, especially the poor transportation in some parts of the north, as well as the early shutdown of some downstream enterprises, resulting in the decline of the operating rate and the weakening of the support for the demand for PVC. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide has fallen, the number of maintenance enterprises is small, the market supply is sufficient, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The enterprises are looking for good prices and good delivery, with a decrease of 4.88% in the first half of the month. The turning point in the second half of the month was mainly due to the rebound of futures prices, the repeated public health incidents in some areas, the poor transportation in some areas, the limited arrival resources, and the increase in exports. There was a certain reserve demand in the downstream years ago, which led to the decline of inventory and the rise of PVC prices. Near the end of the month, the market recovered calm and the trend was relatively strong.

 

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2020, the domestic PVC production was 1.914 million tons, up 6.0% compared with the same period last year; in 2020, the cumulative domestic PVC production was 20.74 million tons, up 3.3% compared with the same period last year

 

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 6900-7400 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is around 7300-7400 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 7070-7130 yuan / ton, the range of pvc5 calcium carbide in Hangzhou is 7270-7400 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 7300-7450 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of PVC common calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 7330-7550 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of futures, the main PVC futures contract V 2105 on the first day reduced its position by a large amount, and the futures price rose and fell, closing at 7280 yuan on the same day, which was – 135 yuan compared with the previous trading day; the trading volume was 364483, and the position was 352155, – 23490; the basis was 70.

 

Regional varieties: February 2, 2007

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide process: 7300-7450 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 7330-7550 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process: 7070-7130 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process: RMB 7270-7400 / T

 

Upstream crude oil. On February 1, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $53.55/barrel, up US $1.35. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price at 56.35 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.31 U.S. dollars. WTI and Brent rose by more than 2% on Monday, mainly due to the decline of US crude oil stocks and the rise of fuel demand caused by snowstorms in the northeast of the United States, which helped oil prices.

 

In January, the external market of ethylene showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At present, crude oil: US crude oil inventory is declining, but the market’s continued concern about the epidemic has limited oil demand, international oil prices fluctuate slightly, and cost support is general. Therefore, data analysts from business news agency predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the next few days.

 

In January, the price of calcium carbide dropped sharply, reaching 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 20.74% from 3890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 9.86% year on year. On February 2, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, the price of raw material blue carbon was high, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide is normal, the output of calcium carbide rises, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that calcium carbide will fluctuate slightly in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Business community PVC analysts believe that in January, PVC first suppressed and then rose, and rebounded in the second half of the month. However, in the off-season of demand, the rise is difficult to last. At present, the market is calm, the year is approaching, the downstream industry is closed for holidays, the support of demand side continues to decline, the trading atmosphere turns light, and the market negotiation price is obviously stable, but the price of PVC is expected to be stable in the short term, and there is a risk of downward trend in the future.

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