Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on October 29 was 43.96, down 1.3 points compared with yesterday, 56.04% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 61.14% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend from October 2017 to October 2020

As shown in Figure 2, in October, natural rubber futures and spot prices were on the way, and surged up sharply in the last week, and fluctuated and retreated near the end of the month. Shanghai Rubber: Shanghai Rubber rose strongly in the opening session, with easy trading. The January contract month closed at 15680 yuan / ton, rose 935 yuan / ton on the 28th, and nearly 1000 yuan within the day. On the 29th, it had a slight correction. On the 30th, it rose first and then fell sharply, especially the 11th contract fell by more than 700 points. Spot rubber: according to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton on October 1, and 14495 yuan / ton on the 30th, with an increase of 22.92% this month,. Among them, 11792.5 yuan / ton on the first day was the lowest price of this month, while the mainstream quotation of 15262 yuan / ton on the 28th was the highest price of this month, with a maximum increase of 29.43% in the month, reaching a new high in recent three years since October 2017.

According to the survey conducted by business agencies, the tapping situation in Hainan and Yunnan, the main production areas of domestic rubber, is different. Hainan is suffering from continuous typhoons. Typhoon No.16 and No.17 have passed, typhoon No.18 is at the right time, and typhoon No.19 and No.20 are on the road. The strong wind and rain weather has seriously affected the production of Xinjiao. The weather in Yunnan is normal. Although the temperature is lower than that in previous years, tapping is normal. Because the rubber price has been rising for many days, and the price has reached the peak in two years, the long silent high price has boosted the enthusiasm of rubber farmers. After the latex is sent to the factory, there is not much work shipment, and the price is high. At present, the rubber price is at a high level, the market transaction is not much, and the price adjustment is frequent. Some of them are bullish and do not cover the market Out.

From the perspective of major global producers, the weather, epidemic situation and lack of labor have affected the supply of new gum seriously. Therefore, it is inevitable and certain to reduce the production of natural rubber. According to the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC), the total output of natural rubber from January to September totaled 7797.1 thousand tons, down 7.3% year-on-year. Among them, in September 2020, China’s gum output was about 111.4 kilotons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and a month on month increase of 11.4%. From January to September, the total output of natural rubber was 426.5 thousand tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Meanwhile, the cumulative production of natural rubber in Thailand decreased by 2.04%, Indonesia by 13.18%, Malaysia by 11.54%, Vietnam by 5.06% and India by 3.31%. The annual production reduction is no longer a suspense, and the statistical data are very obvious. To make matters worse, many Southeast Asian countries are also suffering from typhoon and heavy rainfall, which has seriously affected the output of new rubber. Meanwhile, the rubber farmers and market traders are unable to cover their plate, which leads to the continuous rise of prices. According to Thailand on October 28, Nakorn tangavirapat, director of Thailand’s rubber administration, said that rubber production was reduced due to typhoon Sadr and heavy rainfall, and merchants and farmers hoarded rubber for profit, which made rubber price rise to 72 baht per kilogram in a week. It is estimated that the rubber price will exceed 80 baht / kg and affect the delivery of rubber futures.

In sharp contrast to this decrease in supply, the demand of downstream tire enterprises increased and the operating rate stabilized at more than 70%. For example, in Shandong Province, as of October 23, 2020, the start-up load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 75.32%, slightly increased by 0.63% compared with last week and increased by 9.92% compared with the same period last year. The operating load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 70.81%, 0.6% higher than last week and 3.36% higher than that of the same period last year. Customs data show that in September, China’s tire export volume maintained double growth on the same month, and the foreign trade export situation was better. In addition, China’s economy has gradually recovered, and automobile production and sales are in large volume. In September, China’s automobile production and sales increased by 19.1% and 17.4% month on month, 14.1% and 12.8% year-on-year. Affected by the growth of automobile sales, tire production increased greatly. Domestic tire market maintained a good development momentum, and demand stimulation supported rubber price rise. At the same time, rubber price rose, increasing tire enterprises This month, Guizhou tire, aoles tire, Wanli tire, Fengshen tire, Shandong Zhongchuang tire, Fangxing rubber and other companies announced to adjust their tire product prices in October and November, with an increase range of 2-4%.

However, a strong contrast with the favorable fundamentals of natural rubber is the current external economic environment. At present, the epidemic situation in European countries is rapidly rebounding, Germany and France are once again closed down, and the epidemic situation in other countries is not optimistic. At the same time, the US election is imminent, and the situation is turbulent. The foreign economic environment is bound to lead to a serious impact on the export situation of China’s enterprises, and most industries have recovered slowly so far 。 Fortunately, China’s economic recovery has led to an increasing demand for commodities, and the demand for natural rubber has supported the rapid rise in the prices of rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia. Of course, the increase in the price of natural rubber is also supported by the increased demand for gloves triggered by the epidemic.

To sum up, the current situation of natural rubber production reduction at home and abroad will continue under the recent typhoon and heavy rainfall; the impact of the external economic environment, especially the large fluctuation of crude oil in recent days, has a very direct impact on the commodity trend; at the same time, the large fluctuation of natural rubber in the second half of the week has a greater impact on the stock of trade links, and the quotation of natural rubber traders is difficult, and the price changes frequently Some trade quotations have been suspended. In the near future, there is still a great possibility that the trend of natural rubber will temporarily change or stop. However, the price of natural rubber is strongly supported by the production reduction, and it is more likely that the natural rubber will rise again in the later period.

Today (10.29) domestic cyclohexanone market, wait and see. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market today is 5916 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 1.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.11%. At present, the upstream raw material pure benzene consolidation, downstream purchasing atmosphere is general, market shipment is hindered, the market is slightly loose. Business community cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic market for cyclohexanone in the short term is mainly sorted out.

Regional price

6200-6300 yuan / ton in East China

6350-6450 yuan / ton in South China

RMB 6000-6100 / T in Shandong, cash delivery

On October 26, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at 38.56 US dollars / barrel, down 1.29 US dollars or 3.24%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.81/barrel, down $1.26 or 2.99%. Oil prices fell sharply on Monday, extending last week’s decline, mainly due to the continued surge of new cases in the United States and Europe, and concerns about oversupply caused by the recovery of crude oil production in Libya.

Oil prices have been falling since last week. According to the statistics of business association, from the high point of last Wednesday to the 26th, the overall decline of WTI is 7.53%, and that of Brent crude oil is 5.44%. In particular, WTI has fallen below the $40 mark. At present, it is still a short-term drop caused by worries about the prospect of fuel demand, mainly affected by the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States.

Specifically, the number of new cases announced in the United States on Friday and Saturday hit a new high. On Monday, the European and American stock markets fell sharply, with the Dow Jones index falling nearly 1000 points in the intraday trading, and the decline narrowed in the end. Finally, it still fell by 650 points, especially energy stocks generally fell, and risky assets were sold again, which dragged down oil prices. In addition, the European side is not optimistic. France added more than 50000 new cases on Sunday, which also set a record. Italy and Spain implemented new restrictions to curb the spread of the virus. While the epidemic spread widely, protests in some countries also occurred frequently, and panic was further amplified. It is expected that more countries will also take restrictive activities, which will crack down on gasoline and other things Fuel demand, drag crude oil recovery process.

In addition, there are certain risks on the supply side, the latest news shows that Libya lifted the blockade and the crude oil production of the national oil company (NOC) increased rapidly. NOC said on Monday it had instructed El feel operators to resume production. Libya’s crude oil output will rise to 800000 B / D in two weeks and 1 million B / D in four weeks, the company said in a statement on Friday. The new supply is bound to put pressure on the current supply pattern.

The business club believes that in the context of weak demand, whether oil prices can be stable or not, the market still pays more attention to the production reduction policies of OPEC + oil producing countries. Although OPEC + is still in the implementation period of the production reduction agreement, and the implementation strength has been commendable for a time, the oil market is looking for a rebalancing pattern after the demand has cooled again. It is unlikely that OPEC + will continue to increase its efforts on the basis of the current production reduction. Moreover, there are big differences within the organization, and it is difficult to reach a new consensus agreement in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be downward risks in oil prices in the near future.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde on October 19 was 4500 yuan / ton, and that on October 27 was 4566 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.48%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4300-4400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4700 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. The market of paraformaldehyde is stable and the manufacturer’s quotation is mainly used to maintain stable operation.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the methanol price in Shandong Province dropped by about 0.63% from October 19 to October 27.

3、 Future forecast

POM analysts believe: affected by the raw material methanol, paraformaldehyde rise space is limited.

The international crude oil price fell. Although the domestic refined oil price adjustment ushered in an upward trend, the demand for gasoline market was not favorable, and the price of MTBE market fell steadily. The price of MTBE on October 23 was 2330 yuan / ton, down 1.67% from the price at the beginning of the week, according to business agency data.

Cushing’s crude oil inventory in the United States increased by 975000 barrels, and the international crude oil price fell due to the poor demand in the international crude oil market. The domestic weather and temperature has dropped, and there are no holidays in the near future. The domestic gasoline market demand returns to the rigid demand, which is lack of positive boost. The price of gasoline is on the low side, and the manufacturers are in a strong bearish mood on the MTBE market. The MTBE manufacturers exchange the quantity with the price to ensure the shipment. The start-up of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in domestic refineries has declined, and the demand for intermediate materials such as MTBE has decreased. On the whole, the demand for MTBE is not good, and the price of MTBE manufacturers is stable, which guarantees the shipment.

Analysts of MTBE products of energy branch of business agency believe that: the demand of international crude oil market is weak, the prices of international crude oil and gasoline market will still fall under pressure, and refineries are not active in replenishing MTBE and other intermediate materials. Domestic MTBE prices are expected to fall in the short term.