1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced three rounds of ups and downs this month, which was 6866 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6825 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 0.60%; the monthly high price appeared from July 9 to 11, with a monthly low price of RMB 6636 / T on July 4 and 5, with a monthly amplitude of 3.86%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. Since the beginning of July, the price has been continuously reduced by 200-250 yuan / ton. From June 6 to 9, the price dropped by about 250 yuan / ton. From the 12th to the 16th, the price dropped by 150-200 yuan / ton. On the 18th, the second round of rise was started, with a total increase of 150-200 yuan / ton. On the 25th weekend, the third round of decline was started, with a total reduction of 150-200 yuan / ton. On the 29th, the price rebounded comprehensively, opening the third round of upward market of this month The average daily increase is about 50 yuan / ton, up to now 150 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 6770 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6800 yuan / ton. At present, the propylene manufacturers have smooth shipment and no inventory pressure.

 

On the upstream side, most crude oil prices have risen in recent years, but there have been occasional downturns. On July 30, crude oil prices fell significantly, or slightly negative impact on propylene market.

 

PP market rose in the first half of this month and then declined. In the second half of this month, PP market remained stable, with a monthly decline of 0.21% and a monthly amplitude of 3.31%. At the end of the month, polypropylene futures market rose slightly, but to a lesser extent.

 

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This month, the price of acrylic acid went down step by step and stabilized, with a monthly decline of 8.01% and a monthly amplitude of 8.80%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

 

Propylene oxide market remained stable in the first half of this month, and continued to rise in the second half of this month, with a monthly increase of 12.04% and a monthly amplitude of 14.33%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

 

Epichlorohydrin rose slightly in the first ten days of this month, and then decreased sharply. In the middle and last ten days, it stabilized, with a monthly decrease of 7.99% and a monthly amplitude of 10.28%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

 

This month, the domestic price of isopropanol has been declining steadily, with a monthly decline of 18.75%, which has a significant negative impact on propylene.

 

The domestic n-butanol price remained stable in the first ten days of this month, dropped sharply in the middle of the month, and then fell again after rising in the last ten days, with a monthly decline of 8.33%, which slightly suppressed the propylene market.

 

This month, the market of octanol is similar to that of n-butanol, and it is also stable in the first ten days. It has a sharp decline in the middle of the month, and then declines again after rising in the last ten days, with a monthly decline of 4.88% and a monthly amplitude of 6.65%, which also has a negative impact on propylene.

 

This month, the phenol Market in East China was generally stable after a downward shock, and rose slightly at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 19.93% and a monthly amplitude of 23.37%, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

 

The acetone market in East China continued its downward trend since the second half of June, with a volatile decline all the way, with a monthly decline of 36.54%, which had a significant negative impact on propylene.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: Generally speaking, the current propylene manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and the shipment is smooth. Although the crude oil price has declined slightly, the overall downstream market is relatively ideal in the near future. The market price of propylene has been rising continuously. Although it has not reached the upper limit, the purchasing enthusiasm has been slightly reduced. It is mainly on demand and the market atmosphere is general. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will rise slightly again and stabilize in the near future.

Thiourea

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. On the 29th, the average price of ethylene was 740.75 US dollars / ton, and on the 27th it was 753.50 US dollars / ton, down 1.69%. The current price is down 2.92% month on month, and the current price is 15.27% lower than last year.

 

In the near future, ethylene has shown a downward trend as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices remained stable. As of the 29th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $795-805 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $700-710 / T. The price of European ethylene market fell. As of the 29th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 749-758 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 690-698 US dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the United States remained stable. As of the 29th, the price was 339-357 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is in a continuous downward trend, the demand of the whole ethylene market is weak, and the trading atmosphere is cold and clear.

 

International: on July 29, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, and the settlement price of main contracts rose by US $0.23 to US $41.27/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.09/barrel, up $0.48. Oil prices rose mainly due to the largest drop in US crude oil inventories in the year, but the surge in global epidemic cases limited the rise in oil prices. The rise of crude oil price supported the cost of ethylene. However, the oil price in the early stage dropped by a large margin, and ethylene was in the following situation for the time being, and the external market of ethylene fell.

 

The domestic styrene market is stable, with East China rising slightly. Port styrene storage costs continue to rise, aggravating the de stocking pressure. Futures pull up, driving the spot market prices to rise, to the end of the month, replenishment transactions. There is a bullish mentality in the market, and the low price goods supply is reduced. Supply supply weakened after the market, good support. It is expected that the market will continue to confront each other in recent days. On the whole, this week’s styrene price rebound is limited, but in the short term, it is still more negative, and the price consolidation. Limited support for ethylene.

 

In terms of crude oil: according to the previous agreement reached by OPEC +, the record production reduction will end in July. If OPEC + reduces the share of production reduction, it may further break the current balance of the oil market, and there is also a downward risk of oil price. So business agency data analysts expect ethylene prices to fall mainly below.

Thiourea

1、 Trend analysis

 

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 29th, the spot nickel price quoted was 109816.67 yuan / ton, a small drop of 0.84% compared with the previous trading day, 3.44% lower than the beginning of the year, and 0.99% lower than the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Sino US trade frictions continued to escalate, and the global economic and trade prospects were worrying. The weak volatility of LUNI nickel closed down 0.72% overnight. London Metal Exchange (LME) 28 Lun nickel inventory of 234852 metric tons, 96 tons less than the previous trading day. Earlier, Tesla CEO Elon Musk told suppliers in a second quarter earnings conference call on July 23 that “if you exploit nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will give you a long-term big contract.” Affected by the news, nickel prices rose sharply before. Recently, Philippine nickel ore exports tend to be relaxed, but the overall export rhythm is still limited. On the domestic demand side in July, the domestic output of 300 series stainless steel may stabilize after July, and the pace of steel mills preparing raw materials in advance is also gradually slowing down.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

After market forecast: nickel demand growth slowed down while supply continued to increase, global supply or overall surplus in the third quarter, nickel prices mainly short-term or high shocks.

Thiourea

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

 

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The market of propylene oxide is rising recently. As of July 27, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 11000 yuan / ton, which was 9.27% higher than last Monday (July 20) and 8.91% higher than that of June 27 (10100 yuan / ton), according to the large list data of business agency. At present, the inventory of propylene oxide plant is not under pressure, and the operating rate in the north is slightly reduced, which supports the manufacturers’ mentality of supporting the market. Some downstream costs are under pressure, and the follow-up is fair. The terminal is more and more resistant to high price raw materials, and purchase on demand.

 

Magnesium sulphate

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the recent summary of the price of propylene oxide of enterprises (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

 

Enterprise market price specification date

Dongying Jinying Chemical Co., Ltd. 10800 yuan / T, quality grade: excellent products, July 26, 2020

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 10500 yuan / T national standard 99.9 2020-07-24

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 10500 yuan / ton, quality grade: excellent products, July 24, 2020

Upstream propylene, on July 27, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. On the 27th, the market turnover was between 6620 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 6650 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, the shipment is flat, the crude oil price is slightly down, the downstream overall market operating rate is fair, PP futures market is slightly up. After the price reduction on weekends, most of the current propylene market prices have been near the lower limit of the oscillation range, and the downstream replenishment cycle is coming, and the purchasing enthusiasm is slightly increased. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price may start to stabilize temporarily in the near future.

 

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 27, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the month. As of July 27, the price of raw materials of soft foam polyether in the lower reaches has risen, the cost has been under pressure, and the high-end goods in southern China have been tight. The market price has risen widely. The resistance of the downstream to high prices has become increasingly strong, and the rigid demand procurement is the main factor.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Propylene oxide analysts of the business agency believe that the price of propylene oxide Market is going down in the near future, and the profit margin of propylene oxide is further improved. Factories generally have no inventory to support manufacturers to support the market. The middle and lower reaches maintain on-demand procurement, and the terminal is increasingly resistant to high prices. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may absorb the increase, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance from all aspects of the market.

Thiourea

International crude oil prices soared and fell, maintaining high volatility. The gasoline market demand in the three volt weather was good, which was favorable for the demand of MTBE and other intermediate materials. The price of MTBE on July 24 was 3816 yuan / ton, up 0.88% from the price at the beginning of the week, according to the business agency.

 

In addition, the terminal oil prices are relatively high, and the demand for gasoline in the domestic market is relatively high. Refineries have a good demand for gasoline raw materials. Meanwhile, affected by the flood disaster in southern China, local oil distributors are relatively passive in entering the market, and the overall purchasing and marketing atmosphere of MTBE market is relatively flat, mainly maintaining rigid demand.

 

As of July 24, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was about 75%, an increase of 1% compared with last week. The recovery of gasoline production increases the demand for intermediate feedstock.

 

Analysts of MTBE products of energy branch of business cooperatives believe that: the domestic gasoline price demand is good, which supports the demand for intermediate materials such as MTBE, but the market entry operation of the oil blending market is relatively negative, and the MTBE manufacturers’ shipment is weak. It is expected that the price of MTBE manufacturers will be stabilized in the near future.

Thiourea