Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on October 29 was 43.96, down 1.3 points compared with yesterday, 56.04% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 61.14% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend from October 2017 to October 2020
As shown in Figure 2, in October, natural rubber futures and spot prices were on the way, and surged up sharply in the last week, and fluctuated and retreated near the end of the month. Shanghai Rubber: Shanghai Rubber rose strongly in the opening session, with easy trading. The January contract month closed at 15680 yuan / ton, rose 935 yuan / ton on the 28th, and nearly 1000 yuan within the day. On the 29th, it had a slight correction. On the 30th, it rose first and then fell sharply, especially the 11th contract fell by more than 700 points. Spot rubber: according to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, the mainstream quotation of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton on October 1, and 14495 yuan / ton on the 30th, with an increase of 22.92% this month,. Among them, 11792.5 yuan / ton on the first day was the lowest price of this month, while the mainstream quotation of 15262 yuan / ton on the 28th was the highest price of this month, with a maximum increase of 29.43% in the month, reaching a new high in recent three years since October 2017.
According to the survey conducted by business agencies, the tapping situation in Hainan and Yunnan, the main production areas of domestic rubber, is different. Hainan is suffering from continuous typhoons. Typhoon No.16 and No.17 have passed, typhoon No.18 is at the right time, and typhoon No.19 and No.20 are on the road. The strong wind and rain weather has seriously affected the production of Xinjiao. The weather in Yunnan is normal. Although the temperature is lower than that in previous years, tapping is normal. Because the rubber price has been rising for many days, and the price has reached the peak in two years, the long silent high price has boosted the enthusiasm of rubber farmers. After the latex is sent to the factory, there is not much work shipment, and the price is high. At present, the rubber price is at a high level, the market transaction is not much, and the price adjustment is frequent. Some of them are bullish and do not cover the market Out.
From the perspective of major global producers, the weather, epidemic situation and lack of labor have affected the supply of new gum seriously. Therefore, it is inevitable and certain to reduce the production of natural rubber. According to the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC), the total output of natural rubber from January to September totaled 7797.1 thousand tons, down 7.3% year-on-year. Among them, in September 2020, China’s gum output was about 111.4 kilotons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and a month on month increase of 11.4%. From January to September, the total output of natural rubber was 426.5 thousand tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%. Meanwhile, the cumulative production of natural rubber in Thailand decreased by 2.04%, Indonesia by 13.18%, Malaysia by 11.54%, Vietnam by 5.06% and India by 3.31%. The annual production reduction is no longer a suspense, and the statistical data are very obvious. To make matters worse, many Southeast Asian countries are also suffering from typhoon and heavy rainfall, which has seriously affected the output of new rubber. Meanwhile, the rubber farmers and market traders are unable to cover their plate, which leads to the continuous rise of prices. According to Thailand on October 28, Nakorn tangavirapat, director of Thailand’s rubber administration, said that rubber production was reduced due to typhoon Sadr and heavy rainfall, and merchants and farmers hoarded rubber for profit, which made rubber price rise to 72 baht per kilogram in a week. It is estimated that the rubber price will exceed 80 baht / kg and affect the delivery of rubber futures.
In sharp contrast to this decrease in supply, the demand of downstream tire enterprises increased and the operating rate stabilized at more than 70%. For example, in Shandong Province, as of October 23, 2020, the start-up load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 75.32%, slightly increased by 0.63% compared with last week and increased by 9.92% compared with the same period last year. The operating load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 70.81%, 0.6% higher than last week and 3.36% higher than that of the same period last year. Customs data show that in September, China’s tire export volume maintained double growth on the same month, and the foreign trade export situation was better. In addition, China’s economy has gradually recovered, and automobile production and sales are in large volume. In September, China’s automobile production and sales increased by 19.1% and 17.4% month on month, 14.1% and 12.8% year-on-year. Affected by the growth of automobile sales, tire production increased greatly. Domestic tire market maintained a good development momentum, and demand stimulation supported rubber price rise. At the same time, rubber price rose, increasing tire enterprises This month, Guizhou tire, aoles tire, Wanli tire, Fengshen tire, Shandong Zhongchuang tire, Fangxing rubber and other companies announced to adjust their tire product prices in October and November, with an increase range of 2-4%.
However, a strong contrast with the favorable fundamentals of natural rubber is the current external economic environment. At present, the epidemic situation in European countries is rapidly rebounding, Germany and France are once again closed down, and the epidemic situation in other countries is not optimistic. At the same time, the US election is imminent, and the situation is turbulent. The foreign economic environment is bound to lead to a serious impact on the export situation of China’s enterprises, and most industries have recovered slowly so far 。 Fortunately, China’s economic recovery has led to an increasing demand for commodities, and the demand for natural rubber has supported the rapid rise in the prices of rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia. Of course, the increase in the price of natural rubber is also supported by the increased demand for gloves triggered by the epidemic.
To sum up, the current situation of natural rubber production reduction at home and abroad will continue under the recent typhoon and heavy rainfall; the impact of the external economic environment, especially the large fluctuation of crude oil in recent days, has a very direct impact on the commodity trend; at the same time, the large fluctuation of natural rubber in the second half of the week has a greater impact on the stock of trade links, and the quotation of natural rubber traders is difficult, and the price changes frequently Some trade quotations have been suspended. In the near future, there is still a great possibility that the trend of natural rubber will temporarily change or stop. However, the price of natural rubber is strongly supported by the production reduction, and it is more likely that the natural rubber will rise again in the later period.
| Thiourea |